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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2021 FINAL
BIG 12|MATT WELLS|—RECORD6-6|CONF—
TEXAS TECH50 FPIB12 · 2021 SEASON
TALENT
58FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-5IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#641 BC / 13
BC RATIO
8%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2021 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
6-6ACTUALvs5.5-6.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN-2.1
6 wins against a scoring profile describing 5.5. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
DEFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
61MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
4 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 4AHOUSTON#17W 38-21537777-7BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 11HSTEPHEN F. AUSTIN—W 28-22————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 18HFLORIDA INTERNATIONAL—W 54-214644+66BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 25ATEXAS—L 35-70936464+6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5OCT 2AWEST VIRGINIA—W 23-20604545+25BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 9HTCU—L 31-52753838+32BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 16AKANSAS—W 41-144855+65BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 23HKANSAS STATE—L 24-25528585-15BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 30AOKLAHOMA#10L 21-52969191-21BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 13HIOWA STATE—W 41-38618686-16BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 20HOKLAHOMA STATE#7L 0-23619191-21BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 27ABAYLOR#5L 24-27718989-19BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB—TAL0PERF0RET42NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
2
BEHREN MORTONQB SENO SNAPS
★4—00%——
3
HENRY COLOMBIQB SERET
★3—00%——
9
TYLER SHOUGHQB SEPORTAL · OREGON
★4★300%—FELL
1
DONOVAN SMITHQB SERET
★3★300%—HELD
7
MAVERICK MCIVORQB SERET
★3★300%—HELD
17
PARKER MCNEILQB SENO SNAPS
UNR★300%—EMERGED
▾RB—TAL0PERF0RET100NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
CAM'RON VALDEZRB JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
4
SARODORICK THOMPSONRB SERET
★3—00%——
28
TAHJ BROOKSRB SERET
★3—00%——
42
CHUX NWABUKO IIIRB SORET
★3—00%——
33
RONNIE HARTRB SORET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
11
LOIC FOUONJIWR SERET
★4★300%—FELL
20
NEHEMIAH MARTINEZ IWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
5
JERAND BRADLEYWR SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
13
ERIK EZUKANMAWR SORET
★4—00%——
15
TRAVIS KOONTZTE SERET
★3—00%——
14
XAVIER WHITEWR SERET
UNR—00%——
0
NATHANEAL FLOYDWR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
10
KAYLON GEIGERWR SEPORTAL · TROY
★3★200%—FELL
11
MCLANE MANNIXWR SERET
UNR—00%——
86
DALTON RIGDONWR JURET
UNR—00%——
88
JED CASTLESTE SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
43
HENRY TEETERTE SERET
★2—00%——
7
TREY CLEVELANDWR JURET
★3★300%—HELD
4
MYLES PRICEWR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
84
JJ SPARKMANWR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
80
MASON THARPTE SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
5
CHADARIUS TOWNSENDWR SERET
★4—00%——
33
MATTHEW YOUNGTE SENO SNAPS
★2★200%—HELD
15
CAMERON CANTRELLWR JURET
★3—00%——
87
JOHN HOLCOMBTE FRRET
★3—00%——
45
AUSTIN BROUGHAMWR JURET
UNR—00%——
26
JASON LLOYDTE JURET
★2—00%——
13
JAYDEN YORKTE SERET
UNR★300%—EMERGED
▸OL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸LB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS13 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BEHREN MORTONHS RECRUITQB★4UNR
JERAND BRADLEYHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
CAM'RON VALDEZHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
E'MAURION BANKSHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
JED CASTLESHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
JACK TUCKERHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
MASON THARPHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
JACOBY JACKSONHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
CHARLES ESTERSHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
ISAAC SMITHHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN11 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MARQUIS WATERSDUKES★3★3
TYLER SHOUGHOREGONPRO★4★3
TJ STORMENTTCUOTUNR★3
MALIK DUNLAPNC STATECB★3★3
RAYSHAD WILLIAMSUCLACB★3★3
JESIAH PIERREFLORIDALB★3★3
ROBERT WOOTENVIRGINIA TECHEDGE★3★3
KYRON CUMBYILLINOISRB★3★3
REGGIE PEARSON JR.WISCONSINSUNR★3
COLIN SCHOOLERARIZONALB★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT15 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ALAN BOWMANMICHIGANQB★3★3
ALEX HOGANHOUSTONDB★3★3
JA'LYNN POLKWASHINGTONWR★3★3
KESEAN CARTERHOUSTONWR★3★3
JA'MARCUS INGRAMBUFFALODBUNRUNR
NICK MCCANNTEXAS STATEDL★3★3
JOHN BERARDMARYLANDLSUNRUNR
ZECH MCPHEARSONNFL DRAFT R4DB★4—
T.J. VASHERELIGIBILITY UPWR★4—
ELI HOWARDELIGIBILITY UPDLUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#64NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
1OF 13 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8600COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1116 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKNEW
16TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+2.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
1
2
2
6
5
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-0.3 TO +3.0 W
FULL RANGE-5 TO +9 W
IMPROVED11 OF 16
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST68% BACK68th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG68% BACK68th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR—2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR42%42th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST—2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE