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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SUN BELT|BRYANT VINCENT|—RECORD3-9|CONF—
UL MONROE131 FPISBC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
10FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
58%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
59%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-8IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1150 BC / 5
BC RATIO
8%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
3-9ACTUALvs2.1-9.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN-15.3
3 wins against a scoring profile describing 2.1. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE15
PERFORMANCE15
TALENT37
CONTINUITY58
DEFENSE18
PERFORMANCE18
TALENT27
CONTINUITY59
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
38MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 28HSAINT FRANCIS—W 29-0————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 6AALABAMA#9L 0-73998686-82BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 20AUTEP—W 31-252755-1BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 27HARKANSAS STATE—W 28-16372626-22BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4ANORTHWESTERN—L 7-42596363-59BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11ACOASTAL CAROLINA—L 8-23421111-7BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18HTROY—L 14-37283636-32BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25ASOUTHERN MISS—L 21-49403131-27BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1HOLD DOMINION—L 6-31126464-60BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15HSOUTH ALABAMA—L 14-26261616-12BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22ATEXAS STATE—L 14-31455353-49BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29ALOUISIANA—L 27-30342323-19BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB17TAL0PERF18RET87ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 9 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
10
AIDAN ARMENTAQB SERET
UNR—7987%-25—
9
LANDON GRAVESQB SERET
UNR—5113%-54—
16
MASON MCHUGHQB SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
14
BRYSON KIMBROUGHQB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▾RB64TAL47PERF64RET0ROTATIONn=4 · 5 METRICS · 15 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
3
BAM MCREYNOLDSRB SEPORTAL · SOUTH ALABAMA
★3★37837%+37HELD
6
ZACH PALMER-SMITHRB SEPORTAL · RICHMOND
UNR★37734%+19EMERGED
28
DORIAN LEWISRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—6116%+27—
29
TYRELL REED JR.RB SOPORTAL · ARKANSAS
UNR★35410%-17EMERGED
22
D'SHAUN FORDRB FRTRUE FR
★3★3293%-57HELD
22
JAYDON WRIGHTRB JUPORTAL · MINNESOTA
★3★300%—HELD
▾WR/TE51TAL45PERF52RET61COMMITTEEn=10 · 7 METRICS · 40 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
7
NIC TRUJILLOWR SEPORTAL · NEW MEXICO
UNR★37522%+29EMERGED
1
JULIAN NIXONTE SERET
★4—7424%+25—
85
RYLAN GREENTE SERET
★3—7424%-21—
4
JP COULTERWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—7421%-17—
85
NATE GREENTE JURET
★3—7324%-15—
3
JONATHAN BIBBSWR SORET
★3★37219%+33HELD
2
JAKE GODFREYWR SORET
UNR★37118%+14EMERGED
80
NATE SULLIVAN JR.TE SERET
UNR—6921%-7—
0
TYLER GRIFFINWR JURET
★3★3599%+35HELD
13
RICO POWERS JR.WR SENO SNAPS
★4—546%-43—
5
BRANDON BUCKHAULTERWR SEPORTAL · WESTERN KENTUCKY
★3★3434%+26HELD
82
SI STOVALLTE SORET
★3—383%——
85
HUNTER HERRINGTE SERET
★3★3332%—HELD
88
CALEB GROCEWR FRRET
★3—271%——
15
STEVEN GORSKITE SERET
UNR—261%——
2
JAVON CAMPBELLWR SERET
UNR—00%+35—
31
CHANDLER WILSONTE FRRET
★3—00%——
84
BRANDON THOMASWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
18
BRET VINCENTWR JURET
UNR—00%——
24
HAGEN HERRINGWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL47TAL14PERF47RET65n=6 · 3 METRICS · 16 OBS
▸DL38TAL40PERF38RET64n=10 · 7 METRICS · 41 OBS
▸LB54TAL32PERF54RET61n=6 · 11 METRICS · 49 OBS
▸DB41TAL19PERF42RET54n=14 · 8 METRICS · 69 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS5 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
D'SHAUN FORDHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
BRYSON KIMBROUGHHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
JJ MOULTRIEHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
FRED CLARKHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
ETHAN BAILEYHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN14 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ZACH PALMER-SMITHRICHMONDRBUNR★3
JAY HARPERWISCONSINCB★3★3
QUENTIN MURPHYARKANSASWR★3★3
NIC TRUJILLONEW MEXICOWRUNR★3
JAYDON WRIGHTMINNESOTARB★3★3
BRANDON BUCKHAULTERWESTERN KENTUCKYWR★3★3
MARCUS ROSSMISSISSIPPI STATELBUNR★3
D'ARCO PERKINS-MCALLISTERCHATTANOOGACB★4★3
TYRELL REED JR.ARKANSASRBUNR★3
BRAYLON MCREYNOLDSSOUTH ALABAMARB★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT25 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
WYDETT WILLIAMS JR.OLE MISSSUNR★3
CARTER MILLERUCFOLUNR★3
DEVON SMITHWESTERN KENTUCKYOLUNR★3
TRAVOR RANDLEPRAIRIE VIEW A&MSUNR★2
JAYLAN WAREJACKSON STATEDLUNR★2
AHMAD HARDYMISSOURIRB★3★4
ARTIS COLERICEWRUNR★2
JAMES JONESDELAWARE STATERBUNR★3
WESLEY CAMPBELL VIGEORGIA STATETEUNRUNR
TAVEN CURRYAKRONRB★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES85%9 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS49%8 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#115NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 5 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8446COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1422 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
123TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
22
31
30
29
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +7 W
IMPROVED59 OF 123
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST66% BACK66th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG66% BACK66th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR65%65th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR87%87th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST54%54th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
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