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● LIVE|2023 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
MOUNTAIN WEST|BARRY ODOM|—RECORD9-5|CONF—
UNLV74 FPIMWC · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
14FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
51%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
57%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-9IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1360 BC / 15
BC RATIO
2%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
9-4ACTUALvs8.3-4.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN+7.3
9 wins against a scoring profile describing 8.3. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE61
PERFORMANCE61
TALENT47
CONTINUITY51
DEFENSE7
PERFORMANCE7
TALENT41
CONTINUITY57
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE14 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
40MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2HBRYANT—W 44-14————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 9AMICHIGAN#1L 7-3591100100-45BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 16HVANDERBILT—W 40-37581717+38BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 23AUTEP—W 45-281888+47BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 30HHAWAI'I—W 44-202088+47BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 14ANEVADA—W 45-272811+54BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 21HCOLORADO STATE—W 25-23222727+28BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 28AFRESNO STATE—L 24-314455550BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4ANEW MEXICO—W 56-141577+48BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 10HWYOMING—W 34-14114242+13BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18AAIR FORCE—W 31-2716767-12BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25HSAN JOSÉ STATE—L 31-37384242+13BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14DEC 2HBOISE STATE—L 20-44486767-12BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 26HKANSAS#23L 36-49558282-27BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB76TAL85PERF76RET15ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 11 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
14
JAYDEN MAIAVAQB SERET
★3★48985%+32ROSE
2
DOUG BRUMFIELDQB JURET
★3—5215%-9—
7
CAMERON FRIELQB SERET
★3—00%+16—
9
BO EDMUNDSONQB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
18
LUCAS LENHOFFQB FRTRUE FR
★2★200%—HELD
▾RB45TAL50PERF45RET17ROTATIONn=4 · 5 METRICS · 19 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
5
VINCENT DAVIS JR.RB SENO SNAPS
★3—8533%+26—
9
JAI'DEN THOMASRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—7926%+5—
4
DONAVYN LESTERRB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—7624%+32—
26
COURTNEY REESERB SERET
★2★26414%+1HELD
29
JORDAN YOUNGE-HUMPHREYRB SERET
UNR—373%+33—
49
ANDREW WIMMERRB JURET
UNR—00%——
24
DARRIEN JONESRB JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▾WR/TE60TAL44PERF62RET69ONE OWNERn=6 · 8 METRICS · 33 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
19
KALEO BALLUNGAYTE SERET
★3—9558%+52—
11
RICKY WHITE IIIWR SERET
★3—9432%+33—
21
JACOB DE JESUSWR SENO SNAPS
UNR★38525%+23EMERGED
0
SENIKA MCKIEWR SERET
UNR★38323%-10EMERGED
88
SHELTON ZEON IIITE SERET
UNR—7228%-29—
3
COREY THOMPSON JR.WR JUNO SNAPS
UNR★3609%-57EMERGED
87
CHRISTIAN EARLSTE SENO SNAPS
UNR★35914%—EMERGED
17
DOMINIC GICINTOWR SENO SNAPS
★3★3474%+24HELD
8
TIM CONERLYWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—453%——
6
ZYELL GRIFFINWR SERET
★3★3413%+34HELD
4
DEANGELO IRVIN JR.WR SENO SNAPS
UNR—221%——
15
LANDON ROGERSWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★3211%—HELD
11
GAVIN THOMSONWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
83
COOPER HASWELLTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
21
JORDAN JAKESWR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
89
MALIK BRADFORDWR JURET
★3★300%—HELD
87
CHARLIE WILLIAMSTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
83
BRYSON WATERMANWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
82
RASHAWN JACKSONWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
13
LJ HOLMESWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
25
ROGERICK RAYWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL54TAL39PERF54RET56n=6 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL41TAL27PERF41RET61n=12 · 8 METRICS · 60 OBS
▸LB39TAL32PERF39RET60n=3 · 10 METRICS · 30 OBS
▸DB34TAL47PERF34RET54n=10 · 8 METRICS · 61 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS15 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BO EDMUNDSONHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
LUCAS CONTIHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
ED HAYNESHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
AUSTIN BOYDHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
BRYSON WATERMANHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
MAXWELL PETERSONHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
BLESYNG ALUALU-TUIOLEMOTUHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
DARRIEN JONESHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
RASHAWN JACKSONHS RECRUITWRUNRUNR
DEANGELO IRVIN JR.HS RECRUITWRUNRUNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN9 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ZAVIER CARTERLSULB★4★4
BAM AMINACOLORADO STATELBUNR★3
JALEN FRAZIERNC STATECB★3★3
VINCENT DAVISPITTSBURGHRBUNR★3
JALEN ST. JOHNARKANSASOT★3★3
JAXEN TURNERARIZONAS★3★3
JACK HASZBUFFALOIOLUNR★2
JOSE PIZANOMISSOURI STATEKUNR★2
JACKSON WOODARDARKANSASLBUNR★2
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT34 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
PRESTON NICHOLSPURDUEOLUNR★3
LEIF FAUTANUARIZONA STATEOL★2★3
NOHL WILLIAMSCALIFORNIADB★3★4
AIDAN ROBBINSBYURB★3★4
KYLE WILLIAMSWASHINGTON STATEWR★3★3
KILINAHE MENDIOLA-JENSENHAWAI'IDB★3★3
HARRISON BAILEYLOUISVILLEQB★4★3
LACAREA PLEASANT-JOHNSONSOUTHERN UTAHDB★3UNR
AUSTIN AJIAKEELIGIBILITY UPLB★2—
DAVIYON MCDANIELELIGIBILITY UPOLUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES57%5 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS53%5 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#136NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 15 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8266COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
918 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
123TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
22
31
30
29
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +7 W
IMPROVED59 OF 123
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST62% BACK62th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG62% BACK62th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR56%56th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR15%15th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST54%54th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE