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● LIVE|2024 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
HOME›TEAMS›UTAH STATE›2024TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
PAC-12|NATE DREILING|—RECORD4-8|CONF—
UTAH STATE110 FPIPAC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
29FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
75%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
39%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-6IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1210 BC / 8
BC RATIO
8%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs4.8-7.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN-5.8
4 wins against a scoring profile describing 4.8. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE53
PERFORMANCE53
TALENT34
CONTINUITY75
DEFENSE10
PERFORMANCE10
TALENT45
CONTINUITY39
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
41MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31HROBERT MORRIS—W 36-14————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 7AUSC—L 0-48908383-62BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 14HUTAH—L 21-38777171-50BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21ATEMPLE—L 29-452555+16BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5ABOISE STATE#8L 30-62457979-58BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11HUNLV#23L 34-50397474-53BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19HNEW MEXICO—L 45-50151414+7BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26AWYOMING—W 27-25121414+7BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 9AWASHINGTON STATE—L 28-49464949-28BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16HHAWAI'I—W 55-10222020+1BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23HSAN DIEGO STATE—W 41-20451111+10BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29ACOLORADO STATE—L 37-42303030-9BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB62TAL38PERF62RET0ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 15 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
7
SPENCER PETRASQB SEPORTAL · IOWA
★3★38270%-13HELD
16
BRYSON BARNESQB SEPORTAL · UTAH
UNR★36729%-5EMERGED
3
JACOB CONOVERQB SEPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE
★4★3141%-60FELL
17
BRADEN SIRIQB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
12
CJ TILLERQB SOPORTAL · BOISE STATE
★3★300%—HELD
19
LEVI MANNINGQB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB43TAL77PERF43RET68ONE OWNERn=2 · 9 METRICS · 18 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
RAHSUL FAISONRB SERET
★2★49863%+23ROSE
1
HERSCHEL TURNERRB JUNO SNAPS
★3★38128%-4HELD
2
ROBERT BRIGGSRB SERET
★3—424%+4—
3
DERRICK JAMESONRB SENO SNAPS
UNR★3343%+35EMERGED
24
NICK FLOYDRB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—141%——
29
CORBIN COTTLERB FRRET
UNR—00%——
JONATHAN BAIRDRB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
20
TRE KOFERB FRTRUE FR
★2—00%——
▾WR/TE48TAL42PERF48RET78ONE OWNERn=9 · 8 METRICS · 55 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
5
OTTO TIATE SERET
★3★39627%-16HELD
83
JOSH STERZERTE SERET
★2—8650%-11—
23
KYRESE WHITEWR SERET
UNR—8519%+10—
1
JALEN ROYALSWR SERET
UNR—8519%+34—
13
GRANT PAGEWR SERET
★3★38016%-26HELD
81
JACK HESTERAWR SEPORTAL · CHARLOTTE
UNR★37915%-1EMERGED
87
BROC LANETE SERET
★3—7129%-13—
86
WILL MONNEYTE JURET
★3★36219%+2HELD
9
COLBY BOWMANWR SERET
★4★4554%0HELD
88
GRAYSON BROUSSEAUTE SONO SNAPS
★3★3151%—HELD
7
KAHANU DAVISWR SERET
UNR—150%——
19
CHASE TUATAGALOATE JURET
★3—141%——
JACKSON OLSENWR SORET
★3—00%——
81
QUENTIN RILEYWR SORET
★2—00%——
82
COLE CHRISTENSENWR FRRET
UNR—00%——
20
TATE KJARWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
5
ROBERT FREEMAN IVWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
85
NOAH WRIGHTTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL49TAL19PERF49RET89n=6 · 3 METRICS · 17 OBS
▸DL49TAL37PERF49RET20n=9 · 7 METRICS · 44 OBS
▸LB46TAL49PERF46RET44n=9 · 11 METRICS · 55 OBS
▸DB49TAL47PERF49RET45n=10 · 8 METRICS · 45 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS7 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
HERSCHEL TURNERHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
TANNER WILLIAMSHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
GRAYSON BROUSSEAUHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
CAMDEN JURYHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
GIO KAFENTZISHS RECRUITS★3UNR
TATE KJARHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
KIMO LOPATIHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN18 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ANDRE SELDONTCUCB★4★3
BRYSON BARNESUTAHQBUNR★3
GEORGE MAILEBAYLORIOL★4★3
DAVON GRAHAM IIOKLAHOMACBUNR★3
MACYO WILLIAMSKENT STATEDL★3★3
SPENCER PETRASIOWAQB★3★3
JACOB CONOVERARIZONA STATEQB★4★3
JORDAN VINCENTNEW MEXICO STATESUNR★3
GABRIEL INIGUEZ JR.NEW MEXICO STATEDL★2★3
MIGUEL JACKSONCHARLOTTEDL★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT32 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ANTHONY SWITZERARKANSASDB★2★3
PAUL FITZGERALDUTAHDE★3★3
DEVIN DYEKANSASS★3★3
MICAH DAVISOLE MISSWRUNR★3
COOPER LEGASTULSAQB★3★3
DAVON BOOTHMISSISSIPPI STATERB★3★3
POUKESI VAKAUTACOLORADO STATEDL★3★3
SIR MELLSGEORGIA STATEDE★3★3
JOHN WARDSAN JOSÉ STATEDL★3UNR
AL ASHFORD IIINORTHERN ARIZONACB★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES60%7 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS52%4 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#121NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 8 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8272COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2026 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKNEW
56TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
5
15
14
11
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-5 TO +6 W
IMPROVED25 OF 56
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST31% BACK31th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG31% BACK31th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR89%89th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST45%45th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE