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HOME›TEAMS›VIRGINIA›2022TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2022 FINAL
ACC|TONY ELLIOTT|—RECORD3-7|CONF—
VIRGINIA83 FPIACC · 2022 SEASON
TALENT
58FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
10%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
0%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#661 BC / 16
BC RATIO
9%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2022 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
3-7ACTUALvs3.1-6.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN-7.0
3 wins against a scoring profile describing 3.1. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE27
PERFORMANCE27
TALENT58
CONTINUITY10
DEFENSE73
PERFORMANCE73
TALENT50
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE10 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
54MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 3HRICHMOND—W 34-17————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 10AILLINOIS—L 3-24608888-60BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 17HOLD DOMINION—W 16-14281919+9BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 23ASYRACUSE—L 20-22535353-25BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5OCT 1ADUKE—L 17-38555858-30BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 8HLOUISVILLE—L 17-34577171-43BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 20AGEORGIA TECH—W 16-9792222+6BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 29HMIAMI—L 12-14914242-14BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 5HNORTH CAROLINA—L 28-31896565-37BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 12HPITTSBURGH#22L 7-37687070-42BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB65TAL95PERF65RET100ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
5
BRENNAN ARMSTRONGQB SERET
★3★48899%+19ROSE
16
JAY WOOLFOLKQB JURET
★3—61%-38—
13
JARED RAYMANQB SERET
UNR—00%——
17
MARK WAGNER IIQB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
19
GRADY BROSTERHOUSQB SENO SNAPS
UNR★300%—EMERGED
9
DEVIN SHERWOODQB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB53TAL67PERF53RET40ROTATIONn=3 · 5 METRICS · 15 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
7
MIKE HOLLINSRB SERET
★3—7436%-19—
2
PERRIS JONESRB SERET
UNR—7436%-23—
0
XAVIER BROWNRB SENO SNAPS
★3—6424%-34—
32
RONNIE WALKER JR.RB SERET
★3—304%-35—
CODY BROWNRB JUNO SNAPS
★4★451%-36HELD
9
AMAAD FOSTONRB JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
29
DAVIS LANERB SENO SNAPS
★3★300%——
21
LANDON SPELLRB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
34
JACK GRIESERB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE50TAL60PERF53RET61ONE OWNERn=8 · 8 METRICS · 48 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
3
DONTAYVION WICKSWR JURET
★3—8624%+36—
85
GRANT MISCHTE SERET
★3—8459%-33—
1
LAVEL DAVIS JR.WR JURET
UNR—8423%+38—
99
KEYTAON THOMPSONWR SERET
★4—8322%+16—
44
SACKETT WOOD JR.TE SERET
UNR—7141%+39—
1
BILLY KEMP IVWR SERET
★3—6711%-44—
2
JR WILSON JR.WR SENO SNAPS
★3—618%-42—
6
DEMICK STARLINGWR SERET
★3★3608%-47HELD
26
JAYLON BAKERWR SERET
★3—443%——
0
MALACHI FIELDSWR SERET
★3★4321%-13ROSE
26
ETHAN DAVIESWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—321%——
80
LUKE WENTZWR JURET
★3—181%——
38
SEAN MOOREWR JURET
UNR—130%——
18
JOSH CLIFFORDWR SERET
UNR—100%——
89
JOSHUA RAWLINGSTE SERET
★3★300%—HELD
88
KARSON GAYTE JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
7
ELI WOODWR SENO SNAPS
UNR★300%—EMERGED
13
NATHANIEL BEAL IIIWR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
15
DEVIN CHANDLERWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
87
MIKE KOSARTE JURET
UNR—00%——
9
DAKOTA TWITTYTE SENO SNAPS
★4—00%——
93
HENRY DUKETE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
84
DILLON TENNYSONWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
0
DELANEY CRAWFORDWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
27
KJ BRATTONWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL35TAL49PERF35RET0n=8 · 3 METRICS · 19 OBS
▸DL52TAL52PERF52RET46n=10 · 7 METRICS · 47 OBS
▸LB36TAL68PERF36RET96n=5 · 10 METRICS · 28 OBS
▸DB63TAL42PERF63RET99n=6 · 6 METRICS · 36 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS16 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DAKOTA TWITTYHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
KARSON GAYHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
SNOOP LEOTA-AMAAMAHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
XAVIER BROWNHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
DAVIS LANE JR.HS RECRUITQB★3UNR
STEVIE BRACEYHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
JR WILSON JR.HS RECRUITWR★3UNR
MCKALE BOLEYHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
TREY MCDONALDHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
TERRELL JONESHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT24 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JOSH HAYESKANSAS STATES★2UNR
JOE BISSINGERSMUOLUNRUNR
WAYNE TAULAPAPAWASHINGTONRB★3UNR
NUSI MALANIWASHINGTON STATEEDGE★3UNR
JACOB RODRIGUEZTEXAS TECHLB★3UNR
WEST WEEKSLSULB★3UNR
DE'VANTE CROSSELIGIBILITY UPSUNR—
JACOB FINNELIGIBILITY UPPUNR—
ADEEB ATARIWAELIGIBILITY UPDLUNR—
RA'SHAUN HENRYELIGIBILITY UPWRUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#66NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
1OF 16 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8506COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
00 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
134TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.5MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
13
19
35
37
30
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-9 TO +6 W
IMPROVED67 OF 134
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST81% BACK81th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG81% BACK81th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR100%100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST99%99th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE