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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
ACC|TONY ELLIOTT|—RECORD3-9|CONF—
VIRGINIA88 FPIACC · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
53FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
53%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
68%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-6IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#640 BC / 20
BC RATIO
9%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
3-9ACTUALvs3.5-8.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-5
AVG SCORING MARGIN-10.5
3 wins against a scoring profile describing 3.5. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE52
PERFORMANCE52
TALENT71
CONTINUITY53
DEFENSE55
PERFORMANCE55
TALENT48
CONTINUITY68
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
72MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2ATENNESSEE#17L 13-49899090-69BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 9HJAMES MADISON—L 35-3658686-65BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 15AMARYLAND—L 14-42698585-64BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 22HNC STATE#21L 21-24737171-50BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 30ABOSTON COLLEGE—L 24-27613838-17BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 7HWILLIAM & MARY—W 27-13————NON-FBS OPPONENT
8OCT 21ANORTH CAROLINA—W 31-27887171-50BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 28AMIAMI—L 26-29928080-59BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4HGEORGIA TECH—L 17-45745151-30BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 9ALOUISVILLE#19L 24-31807575-54BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18HDUKE—W 30-27527878-57BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25HVIRGINIA TECH—L 17-55586666-45BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB44TAL80PERF44RET0ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 16 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
10
ANTHONY COLANDREAQB SENO SNAPS
★3★37862%+19HELD
7
TONY MUSKETTQB SEPORTAL · MONMOUTH
UNR★37038%+20EMERGED
13
JARED RAYMANQB SERET
UNR—71%——
9
GRADY BROSTERHOUSQB SERET
UNR★300%—EMERGED
9
DEVIN SHERWOODQB JURET
UNR—00%——
▾RB43TAL78PERF43RET52ROTATIONn=3 · 9 METRICS · 19 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
5
KOBE PACERB SEPORTAL · CLEMSON
★3★39043%-9HELD
2
PERRIS JONESRB SERET
UNR—7626%-5—
7
MIKE HOLLINSRB SERET
★3—7526%-31—
34
JACK GRIESERB JURET
UNR—384%-2—
9
AMAAD FOSTONRB JURET
★3★3191%—HELD
3
DONTE HAWTHORNERB SONO SNAPS
★3—121%——
20
XAVIER BROWNRB SERET
★3—00%-34—
0
CODY BROWNRB JURET
★4★400%-36HELD
28
NOAH VAUGHNRB SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▾WR/TE46TAL72PERF53RET69ONE OWNERn=7 · 8 METRICS · 47 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
4
MALIK WASHINGTONWR SEPORTAL · NORTHWESTERN
★3★39831%+32HELD
0
MALACHI FIELDSWR SERET
★3★49830%+18ROSE
44
SACKETT WOOD JR.TE SERET
UNR—8648%+14—
85
GRANT MISCHTE SERET
★3—8142%-43—
2
JR WILSON JR.WR SERET
★3—7716%-56—
7
JADEN GIBSONWR SONO SNAPS
★3★3629%-60HELD
1
SUDERIAN HARRISONWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★3545%-15HELD
89
JOSHUA RAWLINGSTE SERET
★3★3498%—HELD
6
DEMICK STARLINGWR SERET
★3★3473%-49HELD
26
ETHAN DAVIESWR SERET
UNR—453%-61—
9
DAKOTA TWITTYTE SERET
★4—331%——
7
ELI WOODWR SERET
UNR★3321%—EMERGED
88
KARSON GAYTE JURET
★3—242%——
8
TY'LYRIC COLEMANWR SENO SNAPS
★3—130%——
84
DILLON TENNYSONWR SERET
UNR—00%——
27
KJ BRATTONWR JURET
UNR—00%——
5
DAVIS LANEWR SERET
★3★300%——
93
HENRY DUKETE JURET
UNR—00%——
0
DELANEY CRAWFORDWR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
81
TEKAI KIRBYTE SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
21
LANDON SPELLWR JURET
UNR—00%——
15
TITUS IVYWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
80
CLAIBORNE RICHARDSWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
94
HAYDEN ROLLISONTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL54TAL66PERF54RET57n=6 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL37TAL54PERF37RET85n=10 · 8 METRICS · 53 OBS
▸LB48TAL54PERF48RET62n=5 · 10 METRICS · 29 OBS
▸DB66TAL38PERF66RET57n=8 · 8 METRICS · 48 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS17 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
KAM ROBINSONHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
JADEN GIBSONHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
SUDERIAN HARRISONHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
MEKHI BUCHANANHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
MILES GREENEHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
COLE SURBERHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
JASON HAMMONDHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
DEVIN CLARKHS RECRUITS★3UNR
DJ JONESHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
DRE WALKERHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN8 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MALCOLM GREENECLEMSONS★4★3
KOBE PACECLEMSONRB★3★3
TONY MUSKETTMONMOUTHQBUNR★3
MALIK WASHINGTONNORTHWESTERNWR★3★3
BRIAN STEVENSDAYTONIOLUNR★3
JIMMY CHRISTPENN STATEOT★4★3
UGONNA NNANNAHOUSTONOT★3★3
TAYVONN KYLEIOWA STATECB★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT22 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
LOGAN TAYLORBOSTON COLLEGEOL★4★3
FENTRELL CYPRESS IIFLORIDA STATEDB★3UNR
NICK JACKSONIOWALB★3★4
JOHN PAUL FLORESLOUISVILLEOLUNR★3
BRENNAN ARMSTRONGNC STATEQB★3★4
BILLY KEMP IVNEBRASKAWR★3UNR
RONNIE WALKER JR.UTAH TECHRB★3UNR
CHAYCE CHALMERSSTONY BROOKLB★3★3
ANTHONY JOHNSONELIGIBILITY UPDBUNR—
DEREK DEVINEELIGIBILITY UPOT★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES43%4 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS63%5 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#64NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 20 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8540COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
814 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
74TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-2.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
16
24
15
12
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.8 W
FULL RANGE-8 TO +5 W
IMPROVED19 OF 74
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST30% BACK30th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG30% BACK30th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR57%57th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST57%57th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE