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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
ACC|BRENT PRY|—RECORD6-7|CONF—
VIRGINIA TECH34 FPIACC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
63FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
97%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
77%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-11IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#454 BC / 15
BC RATIO
18%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs7.8-4.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-1.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-5
AVG SCORING MARGIN+6.9
6 wins against a scoring profile describing 7.8. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE42
PERFORMANCE42
TALENT72
CONTINUITY97
DEFENSE83
PERFORMANCE83
TALENT64
CONTINUITY77
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
59MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31AVANDERBILT—L 27-34646262+16BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 7HMARSHALL—W 31-14425757+21BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 14AOLD DOMINION—W 37-1772929+49BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21HRUTGERS—L 23-26586969+9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 27AMIAMI#18L 34-38919393-15BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5ASTANFORD—W 31-7702424+54BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 17HBOSTON COLLEGE—W 42-21584848+30BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26HGEORGIA TECH—W 21-6675151+27BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 2ASYRACUSE#20L 31-38666666+12BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 9HCLEMSON#14L 14-24978484-6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23ADUKE—L 28-31506868+10BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30HVIRGINIA—W 37-17563232+46BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLJAN 3HMINNESOTA—L 10-24688080-2BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB68TAL79PERF68RET82ONE OWNERn=3 · 8 METRICS · 19 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
KYRON DRONESQB SERET
★4★37563%-5FELL
5
WILLIAM WATSON IIIQB SERET
★3★35920%+31HELD
9
COLLIN SCHLEEQB JUPORTAL · UCLA
★3★35618%+8HELD
19
BEN LOCKLEARQB JURET
UNR★200%—EMERGED
10
DAVI BELFORTQB SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
15
JACKSON SIGLERQB FRRET
UNR—00%——
▾RB58TAL74PERF58RET95ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 17 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
33
BHAYSHUL TUTENRB SERET
UNR★39461%+14EMERGED
24
MALACHI THOMASRB SERET
★3★36819%-34HELD
4
JEREMIAH CONEYRB SORET
★3★36215%-15HELD
23
TYLER MASONRB SONO SNAPS
★3—313%-49—
20
P.J. PRIOLEAURB SERET
UNR—232%——
46
DARIUS TAYLORRB JURET
★4—00%——
35
JOHN BUETOWRB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE65TAL81PERF64RET98ONE OWNERn=6 · 8 METRICS · 43 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
82
BENJI GOSNELLTE SERET
★4—9573%-12—
12
STEPHEN GOSNELLWR SERET
★3—8524%+27—
83
JAYLIN LANEWR SERET
★3★38523%+24HELD
9
DA'QUAN FELTONWR SERET
UNR★38222%+14EMERGED
0
ALI JENNINGSWR SERET
★3★47416%+34ROSE
0
AYDEN GREENEWR SERET
★3—7114%-21—
87
HARRISON SAINT GERMAINTE SERET
★3—6321%——
13
JA'RICOUS HAIRSTONTE JURET
UNR—354%——
88
ZEKE WIMBUSHTE JURET
★3★3242%—HELD
6
KEYLEN ADAMSWR SONO SNAPS
★4—181%——
36
BRODY JONESTE JURET
UNR—140%——
2
TAKYE HEATHWR JURET
★3—130%——
7
CHANZ WIGGINSWR SONO SNAPS
★4—130%——
17
CHANCE FITZGERALDWR JURET
★4★470%—HELD
99
COLE REEMSNYDERTE SERET
UNR—00%——
11
DEVIN ALVESWR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
86
NICK GALLOTE SERET
★3—00%-20—
11
TUCKER HOLLOWAYWR SERET
★3★300%-21HELD
40
COLE PICKETTTE JURET
UNR—00%——
18
XAYVION TURNER-BRADSHAWWR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
81
JORDAN TAPSCOTTWR FRRET
UNR—00%——
80
L.J. BOOKERWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
49
CONNOR FERGUSONTE SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
89
CHARLIE O'CONNORWR FRTRUE FR
★2—00%——
▸OL48TAL64PERF48RET98n=7 · 3 METRICS · 19 OBS
▸DL70TAL66PERF70RET68n=11 · 8 METRICS · 54 OBS
▸LB63TAL61PERF63RET77n=6 · 10 METRICS · 52 OBS
▸DB64TAL64PERF64RET87n=7 · 6 METRICS · 37 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS15 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
KEYLEN ADAMSHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
GABE WILLIAMSHS RECRUITLB★4UNR
CHANZ WIGGINSHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
QUENTIN REDDISHHS RECRUITS★4UNR
GERARD JOHNSON IIIHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
EMMETT LAWSHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
TYLER MASONHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
AIDAN LYNCHHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
DAVI BELFORTHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
JOSHUA CLARKEHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN7 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
AENEAS PEEBLESDUKEDL★3★3
KHURTISS PERRYALABAMADL★4★3
MONTAVIOUS CUNNINGHAMGEORGIA STATEOT★3★3
COLLIN SCHLEEUCLAQB★3★3
KALEB SPENCERMIAMILB★3★3
SAM BRUMFIELDMIDDLE TENNESSEELBUNR★3
KELVIN GILLIAM JR.OKLAHOMADL★4★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT21 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DERRICK CANTEENCINCINNATIDB★2★3
DAE'QUAN WRIGHTOLE MISSTE★3★4
DA'WAIN LOFTONOKLAHOMA STATEWR★3★3
JACK HOLLIFIELDAPP STATEOL★3★3
JOHNNY DICKSON IIINORTH TEXASOL★3★3
BRYCE DUKEOLD DOMINIONRB★3UNR
ALAN TISDALEELIGIBILITY UPLB★4—
NORELL POLLARDELIGIBILITY UPDL★3—
MARIO KENDRICKSELIGIBILITY UPDL★3—
JAYDEN JENNINGSELIGIBILITY UPLB★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES24%6 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS22%4 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#45NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
4OF 15 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8809COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
718 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
134TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.5MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
13
19
35
37
30
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-9 TO +6 W
IMPROVED67 OF 134
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST87% BACK87th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG87% BACK87th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR98%98th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR82%82th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST87%87th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE