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HOME›TEAMS›WESTERN KENTUCKY›2023TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
CONFERENCE USA|TYSON HELTON|—RECORD8-5|CONF—
WESTERN KENTUCKY87 FPICUSA · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
36FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
88%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
71%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-8IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1340 BC / 8
BC RATIO
4%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs6.4-5.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN+1.7
7 wins against a scoring profile describing 6.4. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE49
PERFORMANCE49
TALENT48
CONTINUITY88
DEFENSE17
PERFORMANCE17
TALENT51
CONTINUITY71
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
39MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2HSOUTH FLORIDA—W 41-24533636+9BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 9HHOUSTON CHRISTIAN—W 52-22————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 16AOHIO STATE#10L 10-63999898-53BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 23ATROY—L 24-27278181-36BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28HMIDDLE TENNESSEE—W 31-10352424+21BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5ALOUISIANA TECH—W 35-28241616+29BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 17AJACKSONVILLE STATE—L 17-2064747-2BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 24HLIBERTY#25L 29-4297575-30BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4AUTEP—W 21-131888+37BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11HNEW MEXICO STATE—L 29-381745450BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18HSAM HOUSTON—W 28-2371414+31BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25AFLORIDA INTERNATIONAL—W 41-283444+41BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 18AOLD DOMINION—W 38-35122323+22BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB68TAL82PERF68RET97ONE OWNERn=2 · 7 METRICS · 9 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
16
AUSTIN REEDQB SEPORTAL · WESTERN KENTUCKY
UNR★49686%+22EMERGED
10
CADEN VELTKAMPQB SERET
★3★35011%+40HELD
14
TURNER HELTONQB SERET
UNR★3263%—EMERGED
10
BRONSON BARRONQB SEPORTAL · WEBER STATE
★2★271%—HELD
▾RB43TAL72PERF43RET61ROTATIONn=4 · 9 METRICS · 26 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
3
ELIJAH YOUNGRB SENO SNAPS
★3—8839%+15—
2
DAVION ERVIN-POINDEXTERRB SERET
UNR—8131%-28—
30
MARKESE STEPPRB SERET
★4★37121%-10FELL
4
LT SANDERSRB SERET
★3★3559%+21HELD
27
COREY LANDERSRB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE61TAL39PERF55RET72ONE OWNERn=10 · 8 METRICS · 62 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
11
MALACHI CORLEYWR JURET
★2—9219%+32—
17
DALVIN SMITHWR SERET
★3—8416%+23—
87
RIVER HELMSTE SERET
★3★38363%+35HELD
8
EASTON MESSERWR SERET
★2★38215%+12ROSE
19
CRAIG BURT JR.WR SERET
UNR—8013%-2—
6
JIMMY HOLIDAYWR SEPORTAL · TENNESSEE
★3★37411%+15HELD
2
K.D. HUTCHINSONWR SERET
★3—7110%-24—
86
TREVOR BORLANDTE SEPORTAL · BUFFALO
★2★26532%-40HELD
8
MOUSSA BARRYWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—658%-32—
5
BLUE SMITHWR SENO SNAPS
★4★4575%-6HELD
80
ZE'VIAN CAPERSWR SOPORTAL · AUBURN
★4★4291%-53HELD
81
NOAH MEYERSTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR★3263%—EMERGED
15
ELVIN FOFANAHTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—192%——
18
MARVIN SIMSWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—190%——
82
DENZIL ALLEYNEWR SERET
UNR—170%——
9
JOSH STERNSWR SORET
★2★2170%-62HELD
19
JAVY BUNTONWR SERET
UNR—150%——
14
WILLIE TAGGART JR.WR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—130%——
4
MICHAEL MATHISONWR SERET
★2—00%+6—
12
ALEX WILLIAMSTE SERET
UNR—00%——
88
AIDEN MILLERTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
23
JAX COOPERWR SORET
UNR—00%——
19
LOFTON HOWARDTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
26
JARVIS HAYESWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
37
ZACH BURTWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
82
JALEEL WALKERWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
13
TYLON WEBBWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL62TAL43PERF62RET97n=7 · 3 METRICS · 21 OBS
▸DL27TAL75PERF27RET56n=8 · 8 METRICS · 48 OBS
▸LB22TAL18PERF22RET78n=11 · 11 METRICS · 65 OBS
▸DB50TAL54PERF50RET75n=9 · 8 METRICS · 64 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS8 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
KORON HAYWARDHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
NAZIR WARDHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
NOAH MEYERSHS RECRUITTEUNRUNR
JARED WHITEHS RECRUITPUNRUNR
LEAVY JOHNSONHS RECRUITIOLUNRUNR
JARVIS HAYESHS RECRUITWRUNRUNR
JALEN HANDHS RECRUITDLUNRUNR
TYLON WEBBHS RECRUITATHUNRUNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN10 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ZE'VIAN CAPERSAUBURNWR★4★4
L'CHRISTIAN SMITHCINCINNATIWRUNR★4
DANIEL EDWARDSILLINOISCBUNR★3
WILLIE TAGGART, JR.FLORIDA ATLANTICATHUNR★3
RYAN WILLIAMSCOLORADODLUNR★3
MARQUIS BLACKNEBRASKADL★3★3
JIMMY HOLIDAYTENNESSEEWR★3★3
NONTE DAVISUT MARTINWDEUNR★3
TREVOR BORLANDBUFFALOTE★2★2
BRONSON BARRONWEBER STATEQB★2★2
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT33 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
GUNNER BRITTONAUBURNOL★2★4
RUSTY STAATSTEXAS TECHOL★2★3
JOSHUA SIMONSOUTH CAROLINATE★3★4
KYE ROBICHAUXBOSTON COLLEGERBUNR★3
JAKAIRI MOSESMISSOURI STATERB★2UNR
TRAVIS COLLIERJACKSONVILLE STATEDB★3★2
MAXIMUS PULLEYWOFFORDDBUNRUNR
KIWON HARRISBETHUNE-COOKMANDB★3UNR
DAVID NDUKWEHOUSTONOL★3★3
DERRICK SMITHELIGIBILITY UPLB★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES33%6 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS46%7 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#134NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 8 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8382COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1018 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKRETURNS
32TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
4
8
9
5
6
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-6 TO +5 W
IMPROVED11 OF 32
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST52% BACK52th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG52% BACK52th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR97%97th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR97%97th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST75%75th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE