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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
BIG TEN|LUKE FICKELL|—RECORD5-7|CONF—
WISCONSIN49 FPIB1G · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
81FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
90%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
72%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-7IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#2311 BC / 26
BC RATIO
30%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs5.8-6.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN-0.5
5 wins against a scoring profile describing 5.8. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE54
PERFORMANCE54
TALENT76
CONTINUITY90
DEFENSE63
PERFORMANCE63
TALENT76
CONTINUITY72
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
67MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30HWESTERN MICHIGAN—W 28-14312222+34BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 7HSOUTH DAKOTA—W 27-13————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 14HALABAMA#17L 10-421009898-42BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28AUSC—L 21-38908383-27BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5HPURDUE—W 52-6741010+46BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12ARUTGERS—W 42-7586969-13BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19ANORTHWESTERN—W 23-3612424+32BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26HPENN STATE#5L 13-28939797-41BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 2AIOWA—L 10-42728989-33BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16HOREGON#3L 13-16969999-43BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23ANEBRASKA—L 25-44846666-10BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29HMINNESOTA—L 7-24688080-24BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB52TAL49PERF52RET80ONE OWNERn=2 · 5 METRICS · 6 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
8
BRAEDYN LOCKEQB JURET
★4★37880%-43FELL
16
TYLER VAN DYKEQB SEPORTAL · MIAMI
★4★35720%+23FELL
MABREY METTAUERQB SONO SNAPS
★4★341%—FELL
3
COLE LACRUEQB SORET
★3★300%—HELD
16
MILOS SPASOJEVICQB FRTRUE FR
★2—00%——
▾RB42TAL67PERF42RET24ONE OWNERn=4 · 9 METRICS · 21 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
3
TAWEE WALKERRB SEPORTAL · OKLAHOMA
UNR★39453%+3EMERGED
6
DARRION DUPREERB JUNO SNAPS
★4—7221%-47—
1
CHEZ MELLUSIRB SERET
★4★36514%-16FELL
20
CADE YACAMELLIRB SERET
★3★3579%+30HELD
13
DILIN JONESRB SONO SNAPS
★4★3323%+13FELL
10
GIDEON ITUKARB SONO SNAPS
★3—50%——
43
GROVER BORTOLOTTIRB SERET
UNR—00%——
20
NATE WHITERB FRRET
★3★300%—HELD
44
ZACH GLOUDEMANRB SORET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE43TAL68PERF49RET97ONE OWNERn=7 · 7 METRICS · 47 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
8
VINNY ANTHONY IIWR SERET
★3—8625%+10—
37
RILEY NOWAKOWSKITE SERET
UNR★38548%-31EMERGED
84
TUCKER ASHCRAFTTE JURET
★3★38041%-19HELD
3
C.J. WILLIAMSWR SERET
★4★37719%-17FELL
2
WILL PAULINGWR SERET
★3★37618%+20HELD
2
TRECH KEKAHUNAWR JURET
★3★37517%+14HELD
9
BRYSON GREENWR SERET
★3★37114%+12HELD
12
QUINCY BURROUGHSWR SERET
★3★3514%-60HELD
34
JACKSON ACKERTE SERET
★3—478%+16—
87
JACKSON MCGOHANWR JUPORTAL · LSU
★3★3293%—HELD
2
CHRIS BROOKS JR.WR SERET
★3—291%——
5
KYAN BERRY-JOHNSONWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★3261%—HELD
0
TYRELL HENRYWR SEPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE
★3★3181%-33HELD
85
GRANT STECTE SONO SNAPS
★4—40%——
42
TYLER JANSEYTE JURET
★3—00%——
41
JT SEAGREAVESTE JURET
★3—00%——
7
GRADY O'NEILLWR SERET
UNR★200%—EMERGED
27
HAAKON ANDERSONWR SERET
UNR—00%——
12
JOSEPH GRIFFIN JR.WR SEPORTAL · BOSTON COLLEGE
★4★300%+8FELL
30
ALEX MOELLERWR JURET
UNR—00%——
21
CAM FANEWR SORET
UNR—00%——
23
DAVION THOMAS-KUMPULAWR JURET
UNR—00%——
89
ROB BOOKER IITE FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
19
LANGDON NORDGAARDWR SONO SNAPS
★2—00%——
▸OL58TAL87PERF58RET97n=5 · 3 METRICS · 15 OBS
▸DL40TAL69PERF41RET61n=6 · 7 METRICS · 26 OBS
▸LB35TAL78PERF35RET54n=9 · 11 METRICS · 62 OBS
▸DB57TAL78PERF57RET86n=8 · 8 METRICS · 43 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS16 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
KEVIN HEYWOODHS RECRUITOT★4UNR
DILIN JONESHS RECRUITRB★4UNR
ERNEST WILLOR JR.HS RECRUITDL★4UNR
EMERSON MANDELLHS RECRUITIOL★4UNR
GRANT STECHS RECRUITTE★4UNR
XAVIER LUCASHS RECRUITS★4UNR
DARRION DUPREEHS RECRUITRB★4UNR
OMILLIO AGARDHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
MABREY METTAUERHS RECRUITQB★4UNR
THOMAS HEIBERGERHS RECRUITLB★4UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN9 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TACKETT CURTISUSCLB★4★4
TYLER VAN DYKEMIAMIQB★4★4
JOHN PIUSWILLIAM & MARYEDGEUNR★4
LEON LOWERYSYRACUSELBUNR★3
JAHEIM THOMASARKANSASLB★4★3
JACKSON MCGOHANLSUTE★3★3
TYRELL HENRYMICHIGAN STATEWR★3★3
RJ DELANCY IIITOLEDOCB★3★3
TAWEE WALKEROKLAHOMARBUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT26 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JORDAN TURNERMICHIGAN STATELB★3★3
RODAS JOHNSONTEXAS A&MDL★3★3
GIO PAEZLSUDT★3★3
CHIMERE DIKEFLORIDAWR★3★3
SKYLER BELLUCONNWR★3★3
TREY WEDIGINDIANAOL★4★3
DARIAN VARNERCINCINNATIDE★3★3
NOLAN RUCCIPENN STATEOL★5★3
KADEN JOHNSONNEVADAEDGE★3★3
GABE KIRSCHKECOLORADO STATEDLUNR★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES60%2 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS41%8 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#23NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
11OF 26 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8754COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1623 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKNEW
48TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.5MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
3
11
10
12
12
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.3 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +10 W
IMPROVED24 OF 48
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST45% BACK45th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG45% BACK45th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR97%97th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR80%80th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST86%86th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE