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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
SEC|KALEN DEBOER|—RECORD9-4|CONF—
ALABAMA#17 AP 4 FPISEC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
100FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
63%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
61%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-24IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#222 BC / 28
BC RATIO
80%CLEARS
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
9-3ACTUALvs10.2-1.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN+18.3
9 wins against a scoring profile describing 10.2. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE92
PERFORMANCE92
TALENT90
CONTINUITY63
DEFENSE99
PERFORMANCE99
TALENT94
CONTINUITY61
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
74MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
4 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31HWESTERN KENTUCKY—W 63-0234242+56BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 7HSOUTH FLORIDA—W 42-16504141+57BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 14AWISCONSIN—W 42-10815656+42BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28HGEORGIA#6W 41-34999696+2BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5AVANDERBILT—L 35-40646262+36BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12HSOUTH CAROLINA#19W 27-25859090+8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19ATENNESSEE#9L 17-24889494+4BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26HMISSOURI#22W 34-0878686+12BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 9ALSU—W 42-13948989+9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16HMERCER—W 52-7————NON-FBS OPPONENT
13NOV 23AOKLAHOMA—L 3-24957676+22BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30HAUBURN—W 28-14887676+22BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 31AMICHIGAN—L 13-19898181+17BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB66TAL97PERF66RET99ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 9 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
4
JALEN MILROEQB JURET
★4—8491%+34—
15
TY SIMPSONQB JURET
★5—357%-6—
12
DYLAN LONERGANQB SERET
★4★3162%—FELL
10
AUSTIN MACKQB SEPORTAL · WASHINGTON
★4★471%—HELD
16
CADE CARRUTHQB SERET
UNR—00%——
19
JOHN COOPERQB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB50TAL95PERF50RET90ONE OWNERn=4 · 9 METRICS · 23 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
26
JAM MILLERRB SERET
★4—9250%-11—
22
JUSTICE HAYNESRB SERET
★5★48132%+26FELL
9
RICHARD YOUNGRB SERET
★4★3527%+21FELL
4
DANIEL HILLRB JUNO SNAPS
★4—476%-35—
6
KEVIN RILEYRB JUNO SNAPS
★4—313%-26—
21
JR GARDNERRB FRRET
UNR—91%——
27
MICHAEL LORINO IIIRB SERET
UNR—00%——
29
FREDRICK MOORERB JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▾WR/TE82TAL89PERF84RET51ROTATIONn=9 · 8 METRICS · 37 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
81
CJ DIPPRETE SERET
★3★49243%+20ROSE
1
RYAN COLEMAN-WILLIAMSWR JUNO SNAPS
★5—9132%+18—
5
GERMIE BERNARDWR SEPORTAL · WASHINGTON
★4★49031%+25HELD
45
ROBBIE OUZTSTE SERET
★3—7524%+8—
80
JOSH CUEVASTE SEPORTAL · WASHINGTON
UNR★37020%+50EMERGED
1
KENDRICK LAWWR SERET
★4★46310%-27HELD
2
EMMANUEL HENDERSON JR.WR SERET
★4★3556%-17FELL
16
KOBE PRENTICEWR SERET
★4★3556%+24FELL
4
CALEB ODOMTE JUNO SNAPS
★4★3546%-27FELL
87
DANNY LEWISTE SERET
★3★3538%—HELD
7
RICO SCOTTWR JUNO SNAPS
★4★3494%—FELL
7
COLE ADAMSWR SERET
★4★3474%—FELL
85
TY LOCKWOODTE SERET
★4★3342%—FELL
16
JAREN HAMILTONWR SERET
★4★3271%—FELL
88
JAY LINDSEYTE JUNO SNAPS
★3—241%——
47
ADAM THORSLANDTE SERET
UNR—90%——
32
JAY LOPER JR.WR SERET
UNR—70%——
46
PEYTON FOXTE SERET
UNR—40%——
34
COBY MCNEALTE JURET
UNR—00%——
21
BUBBA HAMPTONWR FRTRUE FR
★4—00%——
8
JALEN HALEWR JURET
★5★300%-5FELL
81
AMARI JEFFERSONWR FRTRUE FR
★4★400%—HELD
23
MJ CHIRGWINWR SERET
UNR—00%——
4
KALEB FLEMINGWR SERET
UNR—00%——
85
MIGUEL CAMBOIAWR SERET
UNR—00%——
84
COLBY CRUZWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
31
COOPER MOLLISONWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL59TAL88PERF59RET68n=7 · 3 METRICS · 21 OBS
▸DL60TAL94PERF60RET65n=8 · 7 METRICS · 39 OBS
▸LB57TAL96PERF57RET93n=6 · 11 METRICS · 45 OBS
▸DB68TAL92PERF68RET39n=10 · 8 METRICS · 53 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS18 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
RYAN COLEMAN-WILLIAMSHS RECRUITWR★5UNR
JULIAN SAYINHS RECRUITQB★5UNR
JAYLEN MBAKWEHS RECRUITCB★5UNR
ZAVIER MINCEYHS RECRUITCB★5UNR
ZABIEN BROWNHS RECRUITCB★5UNR
CALEB ODOMHS RECRUITTE★4UNR
KEVIN RILEYHS RECRUITRB★4UNR
CASEY POEHS RECRUITIOL★4UNR
JEREMIAH BEAMANHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
NOAH CARTERHS RECRUITEDGE★4UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN7 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
KADYN PROCTORIOWAOT★5★5
PARKER BRAILSFORDWASHINGTONIOL★3★4
LT OVERTONTEXAS A&MDL★5★4
KEON SABBMICHIGANS★4★4
AUSTIN MACKWASHINGTONQB★4★4
KING MACKPENN STATES★4★4
DOMANI JACKSONUSCCB★4★4
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT32 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CALEB DOWNSOHIO STATES★5★5
SETH MCLAUGHLINOHIO STATEOL★3★4
TREY AMOSOLE MISSCB★3★4
ISAIAH BONDTEXASWR★4★5
AMARI NIBLACKTEXASTE★4★4
ROYDELL WILLIAMSFLORIDA STATERB★5★4
MALIK BENSONFLORIDA STATEWRUNR★4
KRISTIAN STORYKENTUCKYDB★4★3
TJ FERGUSONFLORIDA STATEOL★4★4
KENDRICK BLACKSHIREUTSALB★4★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES54%4 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS72%7 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#2NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
22OF 28 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.9312COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1438 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
125TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
4
23
33
36
29
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +8 W
IMPROVED65 OF 125
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST55% BACK55th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG55% BACK55th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR68%68th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR99%99th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST39%39th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE