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HOME›TEAMS›APP STATE›2025TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SUN BELT|DOWELL LOGGAINS|—RECORD5-8|CONF—
APP STATE117 FPISBC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
43FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
26%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
51%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-11IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1160 BC / 16
BC RATIO
9%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
5-7ACTUALvs4.9-7.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-4
AVG SCORING MARGIN-4.5
5 wins against a scoring profile describing 4.9. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE16
PERFORMANCE16
TALENT39
CONTINUITY26
DEFENSE17
PERFORMANCE17
TALENT40
CONTINUITY51
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
30MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 29ACHARLOTTE—W 34-112211+18BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 6HLINDENWOOD—W 20-13————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 13ASOUTHERN MISS—L 22-38403131-12BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 27ABOISE STATE—L 14-47425353-34BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4HOREGON STATE—W 27-235777+12BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11AGEORGIA STATE—W 41-204522+17BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18HCOASTAL CAROLINA—L 37-45421111+8BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25AOLD DOMINION—L 21-24126464-45BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 6HGEORGIA SOUTHERN—L 23-25332424-5BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15AJAMES MADISON#19L 10-5888181-62BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22HMARSHALL—W 26-24363737-18BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29HARKANSAS STATE—L 29-30372626-7BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 29HGEORGIA SOUTHERN—L 10-29332424-5BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB54TAL60PERF54RET2ROTATIONn=3 · 8 METRICS · 14 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
17
AJ SWANNQB SEPORTAL · LSU
★4★37643%-19FELL
17
JJ KOHLQB JUPORTAL · IOWA STATE
★4★37642%+4FELL
11
NOAH GILLONQB FRTRUE FR
★3—538%-55—
6
MATTHEW WILSONQB FRTRUE FR
★3★3394%—HELD
9
BILLY WILESQB SERET
★3★3262%-24HELD
10
GREGORY FEEQB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB44TAL75PERF44RET0ONE OWNERn=2 · 9 METRICS · 18 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
7
RASHOD DUBINIONRB SEPORTAL · ARKANSAS
★4★39752%-24FELL
5
JAQUARI LEWISRB SONO SNAPS
★3—9544%-29—
5
KHAMANI ALEXANDERRB SORET
★3★3413%-30HELD
20
KHALIFA KEITHRB SEPORTAL · TENNESSEE
★3★3161%-18HELD
2
KANYE ROBERTSRB SERET
★2★200%0HELD
20
JAYLON CALHOUNRB SORET
★3★300%—HELD
31
MAX GUESTRB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▾WR/TE50TAL47PERF48RET47ROTATIONn=9 · 8 METRICS · 58 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
8
DALTON STROMANWR SERET
★3—9526%+31—
85
DAVID LARKINSTE SERET
★3—9142%-8—
1
JADEN BARNESWR SEPORTAL · AUSTIN PEAY
UNR★38921%+22EMERGED
5
DAVION DOZIERWR SEPORTAL · ARKANSAS
★4★38519%+32FELL
4
IZAYAH CUMMINGSTE SEPORTAL · LOUISVILLE
★3★37928%+40HELD
6
KANEN HAMLETTTE SERET
★3★37624%+4HELD
12
SAM MBAKEWR SENO SNAPS
★4—7212%-23—
16
ALEXANDER SANCHEZWR SONO SNAPS
★3—6910%-55—
12
WILLIAM FOWLESWR SORET
★3★3647%-44HELD
80
DOOPAH COLEMANWR SONO SNAPS
★3—473%——
87
DILLON GALLOWAYTE SONO SNAPS
★3—424%——
13
JACKSON GRIERWR SEPORTAL · BOISE STATE
★3★2372%—FELL
82
CHRIS LAWSON JR.WR SORET
★3★3362%—HELD
44
JARED GIBBLETE SERET
★3—171%——
34
JOSHUA ACORDTE JUPORTAL · SOUTHERN UTAH
UNR★3141%—EMERGED
81
JOSE LEONWR FRRET
★3★3140%—HELD
88
BRYCE GEEWR FRRET
★3—00%——
25
ZAHN COAKLEYWR JURET
UNR★300%—EMERGED
80
DERICK BRAZILWR JUPORTAL · EAST CAROLINA
UNR—00%——
▸OL50TAL24PERF50RET25n=7 · 3 METRICS · 20 OBS
▸DL50TAL44PERF50RET28n=13 · 8 METRICS · 66 OBS
▸LB52TAL28PERF52RET63n=5 · 10 METRICS · 37 OBS
▸DB47TAL42PERF47RET66n=11 · 6 METRICS · 56 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS12 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JAQUARI LEWISHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
DENELL NIX JR.HS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
DOOPAH COLEMANHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
KADEN ELLISHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
KELVIN CRAWFORDHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
ALEX SANCHEZHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JA'TORIAN MACKHS RECRUITS★3UNR
MAX GUESTHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
NOAH GILLONHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
CALEB PITTSHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN13 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
RASHOD DUBINIONARKANSASRB★4★3
AJ SWANNLSUQB★4★3
DYLAN MANUELCHARLESTON SOUTHERNDLUNR★3
JA'DEN MCBURROWSMICHIGANCB★3★3
JJ KOHLIOWA STATEQB★4★3
TYRIQ POINDEXTERVMIIOLUNR★3
KHALIFA KEITHTENNESSEERB★3★3
BRAYSHAWN LITTLEJOHNMISSOURILB★3★3
DAVION DOZIERARKANSASWR★4★3
IZAYAH CUMMINGSLOUISVILLETE★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT38 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JACK HOLLIFIELDTULANEOL★3★3
MARKELL SAMUELOKLAHOMA STATEOL★3★3
THOMAS SHRADERSOUTH FLORIDAOL★3★3
BRENDAN HARRINGTONGEORGIA SOUTHERNLB★3★3
JASON CHAMBERSWEST VIRGINIACBUNR★3
GARNER LANGLOTROYOL★3★3
JOEY AGUILARTENNESSEEQBUNR★3
SANTANA HOPPERTULANEDL★3★3
MAKAI JACKSONINDIANAWRUNR★3
NATE JOHNSONMISSOURIEDGE★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES78%6 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS82%9 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#116NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 16 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8483COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
3243 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
63TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
14
23
8
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +5 W
IMPROVED15 OF 63
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST13% BACK13th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG13% BACK13th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR25%25th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR2%2th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST66%66th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE