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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
BIG 12|KENNY DILLINGHAM|—RECORD11-3|CONF—
ARIZONA STATE#7 AP 22 FPIB12 · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
79FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
50%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
43%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#481 BC / 21
BC RATIO
20%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
11-2ACTUALvs9.6-3.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+1.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD6-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN+11.8
11 wins against a scoring profile describing 9.6. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE90
PERFORMANCE90
TALENT71
CONTINUITY50
DEFENSE77
PERFORMANCE77
TALENT65
CONTINUITY43
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE14 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
60MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31HWYOMING—W 48-7121414+60BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 7HMISSISSIPPI STATE—W 30-23763535+39BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 12ATEXAS STATE—W 31-28286565+9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21ATEXAS TECH—L 22-30736060+14BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5HKANSAS—W 35-31656262+12BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11HUTAH—W 27-19777171+3BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19ACINCINNATI—L 14-24574747+27BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 2AOKLAHOMA STATE—W 42-21624040+34BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 9HUCF—W 35-31775555+19BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16AKANSAS STATE—W 24-14548787-13BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23HBYU#13W 28-23448888-14BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30AARIZONA—W 49-7603939+35BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
15DEC 7HIOWA STATE#15W 45-19518080-6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLJAN 1HTEXAS#4L 31-39989595-21BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB81TAL95PERF81RET1ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 10 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
10
SAM LEAVITTQB JUPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE
★4★58992%+23ROSE
2
JEFF SIMSQB SEPORTAL · NEBRASKA
★4★3397%-16FELL
16
TRENTON BOURGUETQB SERET
UNR—71%+29—
19
CHRISTIAN HUNTQB SONO SNAPS
★2★300%—ROSE
14
TYLER LASKARISQB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
19
NAVI BRUZONQB FRTRUE FR
★2—00%——
▾RB84TAL58PERF84RET96ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 17 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
4
CAM SKATTEBORB SERET
UNR—10071%+30—
1
KYSON BROWNRB SERET
★3—7518%+27—
25
DECARLOS BROOKSRB SERET
★3★3587%-7HELD
0
RALEEK BROWNRB SEPORTAL · USC
★4★4343%+33HELD
22
ALTON MCCASKILLRB SEPORTAL · COLORADO
★3★3181%-4HELD
22
JASON BROWN JR.RB JUNO SNAPS
★4—121%——
▾WR/TE54TAL76PERF53RET36ONE OWNERn=8 · 8 METRICS · 40 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
7
CHAMON METAYERTE SEPORTAL · COLORADO
★4★39559%+1FELL
0
JORDYN TYSONWR JURET
★3★49329%+35ROSE
1
XAVIER GUILLORYWR SERET
★3★39127%+5HELD
5
MELQUAN STOVALLWR SERET
★3★38724%-38HELD
9
CAMERON HARPOLETE SEPORTAL · SAN DIEGO STATE
★3★36620%-23HELD
87
MARKESTON DOUGLASTE SEPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE
★3★36519%+33HELD
5
TROY OMEIREWR SERET
★4★3649%-11FELL
8
JAKE SMITHWR SERET
★4★3586%-26FELL
12
MALIK MCCLAINWR SEPORTAL · PENN STATE
★4★3524%-19FELL
87
COLESON ARENDSTE JURET
UNR—312%——
5
DEREK EUSEBIOWR SERET
UNR—181%——
80
PLAS JOHNSONWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—160%——
88
COBEN BOURGUETWR SERET
UNR—70%——
7
MAX WAREWR JURET
UNR—00%——
32
DERIC ENGLISHWR FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
2
KALEB BLACKWR SORET
★3★300%—HELD
14
KORBIN HENDRIXWR SORET
★3★300%—HELD
87
ZECHARIAH SAMPLEWR SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
80
JAYDEN FORTIERTE FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
45
JAMES GIGGEYTE JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
44
SINJIN SCHMITTTE FRRET
UNR—00%——
18
JAMAL YOUNG IIWR SORET
UNR—00%——
82
ARMON COLLINSWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
82
JUSTICE SPANNWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▸OL60TAL59PERF60RET49n=7 · 3 METRICS · 19 OBS
▸DL50TAL51PERF50RET57n=9 · 8 METRICS · 55 OBS
▸LB54TAL70PERF54RET28n=5 · 9 METRICS · 37 OBS
▸DB52TAL74PERF52RET37n=7 · 8 METRICS · 38 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS10 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JASON BROWN JR.HS RECRUITRB★4UNR
CHRIS JOHNSON IIHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
ZECHARIAH SAMPLEHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
TONY-LOUIS NKUBAHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
RODNEY BIMAGE JR.HS RECRUITCB★3UNR
JAYDEN FORTIERHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
KYAN MCDONALDHS RECRUITS★3UNR
FILIVA'A SALUNIHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
ALBERT SMITH IIIHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
PLAS JOHNSONHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN15 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
RALEEK BROWNUSCRB★4★4
COLE MARTINOREGONCB★4★4
J'MOND TAPPTEXASEDGE★4★3
SAM LEAVITTMICHIGAN STATEQB★4★3
JALEN KLEMMWASHINGTONIOL★3★3
KAMARI WILSONFLORIDAS★4★3
MARKESTON DOUGLASFLORIDA STATETE★3★3
MYLES ROWSERNEW MEXICO STATES★4★3
JOSH ATKINSHAWAI'IOT★3★3
KEYSHAUN ELLIOTTNEW MEXICO STATELB★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT38 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JORDAN CLARKNOTRE DAMES★4★3
ED WOODSMICHIGAN STATEDB★3★3
ELIJHAH BADGERFLORIDAWR★4★4
JALIN CONYERSTEXAS TECHTE★4★3
ISAIA GLASSOKLAHOMA STATEOL★3★3
BRYCE PIERREUCLATEUNR★3
JAMES DJONKAMEASTERN MICHIGANDLUNR★2
DREW PYNEMISSOURIQB★4★3
RJ REGANFRESNO STATEDB★3★3
SAM BENJAMINSAN DIEGO STATEDLUNR★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES26%10 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS58%10 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#48NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
1OF 21 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8638COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2828 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
125TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
4
23
33
36
29
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +8 W
IMPROVED65 OF 125
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST60% BACK60th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG60% BACK60th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR49%49th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR1%1th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST37%37th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE