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● LIVE|2023 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
HOME›TEAMS›ARKANSAS›2023TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
SEC|SAM PITTMAN|—RECORD4-8|CONF—
ARKANSAS56 FPISEC · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
77FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
52%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
46%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-14IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#228 BC / 27
BC RATIO
36%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs5.7-6.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-1.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-5
AVG SCORING MARGIN-1.3
4 wins against a scoring profile describing 5.7. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE57
PERFORMANCE57
TALENT74
CONTINUITY52
DEFENSE80
PERFORMANCE80
TALENT76
CONTINUITY46
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
64MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
4 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2HWESTERN CAROLINA—W 56-13————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 9HKENT STATE—W 28-61500+59BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 16HBYU—L 31-38474343+16BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 23ALSU#12L 31-34969292-33BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 30HTEXAS A&M—L 22-34988989-30BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 7AOLE MISS—L 20-27849292-33BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 14AALABAMA#5L 21-241009595-36BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 21HMISSISSIPPI STATE#9L 3-7805454+5BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4AFLORIDA—W 39-36907070-11BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11HAUBURN—L 10-48887373-14BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18HFLORIDA INTERNATIONAL—W 44-203444+55BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 24HMISSOURI#8L 14-48839393-34BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB58TAL83PERF58RET92ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 10 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
KJ JEFFERSONQB SERET
★4★38692%+26FELL
6
JACOLBY CRISWELLQB SEPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA
★4★3408%-3FELL
10
CADE FORTINQB SERET
★3—00%-46—
3
MALACHI SINGLETONQB SENO SNAPS
★4★300%—FELL
80
RYKAR ACEBOQB JURET
UNR—00%——
▾RB50TAL85PERF50RET89ROTATIONn=5 · 5 METRICS · 21 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
7
RASHOD DUBINIONRB SERET
★4★37832%-18FELL
5
RAHEIM SANDERSRB SERET
★4★47224%+14HELD
0
AJ GREEN JR.RB SERET
★4★47022%-19HELD
20
DOMINIQUE JOHNSONRB JURET
★3★35913%+22HELD
4
ISAIAH AUGUSTAVERB JUNO SNAPS
★4★3539%+23FELL
41
KYLE THOMPSONFB JURET
UNR—160%——
21
EMMANUEL CRAWFORDRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
28
JEZREEL BACHERTRB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE60TAL68PERF57RET32ROTATIONn=8 · 7 METRICS · 42 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
2
ANDREW ARMSTRONGWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—9231%+26—
4
ISAAC TESLAAWR SEPORTAL · HILLSDALE COLLEGE
UNR★38928%-28EMERGED
9
LUKE HASZTE SENO SNAPS
★4★47028%+34HELD
5
TYRONE BRODENWR SEPORTAL · BOWLING GREEN
★3★47016%+15ROSE
11
JAEDON WILSONWR SERET
★3★36814%-12HELD
89
NATHAN BAXTE SERET
UNR—6725%-37—
1
ISAIAH SATEGNA IIIWR SERET
★4—6311%-34—
7
TY WASHINGTONTE SERET
★3★36118%+50HELD
44
FRANCIS SHERMANTE SEPORTAL · LOUISVILLE
UNR★35714%-43EMERGED
30
VAR'KEYES GUMMSTE JUPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS
★3★35714%+38HELD
14
HUNTER TALLEYTE SORET
UNR—141%——
14
BRYCE STEPHENSWR JURET
★3★3100%-8HELD
5
DAVION DOZIERWR SENO SNAPS
★4★360%—FELL
15
CHRIS HARRISWR JURET
★2—00%——
3
SAM MBAKEWR SERET
★4—00%——
84
SHAMAR EASTERTE JUNO SNAPS
★4★300%—FELL
4
CHRIS RHODESWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
84
MARLON CROCKETTWR SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
86
KALIL GIRAULTWR SORET
UNR—00%——
9
KAM BIBBYWR JURET
UNR—00%——
47
MADDOX LASSITERTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
49
LUKE JOHNSTONTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
82
KAYLON MORRISWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
8
DAZMIN JAMESWR SENO SNAPS
★3★300%——
85
JACE PETTYWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL51TAL72PERF51RET57n=7 · 3 METRICS · 21 OBS
▸DL69TAL82PERF69RET50n=10 · 8 METRICS · 51 OBS
▸LB62TAL87PERF62RET42n=5 · 10 METRICS · 27 OBS
▸DB52TAL66PERF52RET44n=9 · 6 METRICS · 47 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS13 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JAYLON BRAXTONHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
SHAMAR EASTERHS RECRUITTE★4UNR
LUKE HASZHS RECRUITTE★4UNR
ISAIAH AUGUSTAVEHS RECRUITRB★4UNR
DAVION DOZIERHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
QUINCY RHODES JR.HS RECRUITDL★4UNR
MALACHI SINGLETONHS RECRUITQB★4UNR
LUKE BROWNHS RECRUITIOL★4UNR
DAZMIN JAMESHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
TJ METCALFHS RECRUITS★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN12 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JAHEIM SINGLETARYGEORGIACB★5★4
ANTHONY BOOKERMARYLANDDLUNR★4
VAR'KEYES GUMMSNORTH TEXASTE★3★4
ALFAHIYM WALCOTTBAYLORSUNR★4
TYRONE BRODENBOWLING GREENWR★3★4
JAHEIM THOMASCINCINNATILB★4★3
LORANDO JOHNSONBAYLORCB★4★3
JOSHUA BRAUNFLORIDAOT★4★3
JACOLBY CRISWELLNORTH CAROLINAQB★4★3
ISAAC TESLAAHILLSDALE COLLEGEWRUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT30 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
SIMEON BLAIRMEMPHISDBUNR★2
TREY KNOXSOUTH CAROLINATE★4★4
ISAIAH NICHOLSPURDUEDL★3★3
MYLES SLUSHERCOLORADODB★4★3
JORDAN DOMINECKCOLORADOLB★3★3
KHARI JOHNSONBOSTON COLLEGEDB★3★3
KETRON JACKSON JR.BAYLORWRUNRUNR
WARREN THOMPSONTCUWR★4★4
KEUAN PARKERTULSACB★3★3
JACKSON WOODARDUNLVLBUNR★2
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES34%8 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS73%9 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#22NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
8OF 27 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8859COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1731 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKRETURNS
28TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-2.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
4
11
6
3
4
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.3 W
FULL RANGE-5 TO +4 W
IMPROVED7 OF 28
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST78% BACK78th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG78% BACK78th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR57%57th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR92%92th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST44%44th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE