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HOME›TEAMS›ARKANSAS STATE›2023TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
SUN BELT|BUTCH JONES|—RECORD6-7|CONF—
ARKANSAS STATE101 FPISBC · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
34FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
52%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
82%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-5IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#740 BC / 22
BC RATIO
2%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs5.2-6.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN-3.4
6 wins against a scoring profile describing 5.2. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE33
PERFORMANCE33
TALENT49
CONTINUITY52
DEFENSE20
PERFORMANCE20
TALENT38
CONTINUITY82
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
43MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2AOKLAHOMA#15L 0-73948888-51BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 9HMEMPHIS—L 3-37545959-22BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 16HSTONY BROOK—W 31-7————NON-FBS OPPONENT
4SEP 23HSOUTHERN MISS—W 44-37231313+24BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 30AMASSACHUSETTS—W 52-284566+31BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 7ATROY—L 3-37278181-44BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 21HCOASTAL CAROLINA—L 17-27394949-12BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 28AUL MONROE—W 34-241022+35BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4HLOUISIANA—W 37-17315353-16BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11ASOUTH ALABAMA—L 14-21426464-27BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18HTEXAS STATE—W 77-31324747-10BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25AMARSHALL—L 21-35312626+11BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 23ANORTHERN ILLINOIS—L 19-21133030+7BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB55TAL50PERF55RET10ONE OWNERn=3 · 8 METRICS · 11 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
JAYLEN RAYNORQB SENO SNAPS
UNR★38178%+38EMERGED
5
J.T. SHROUTQB SEPORTAL · COLORADO
★3★34812%-41HELD
15
JAXON DAILEYQB JURET
★3★34310%-49HELD
14
WILL PRICHARDQB JUNO SNAPS
★3★200%—FELL
19
CHRISTIAN HUNTQB SONO SNAPS
★2★300%—ROSE
▾RB29TAL30PERF29RET56ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 17 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
11
JA'QUEZ CROSSRB SERET
★3★39150%0HELD
21
ZAK WALLACERB SENO SNAPS
★2—8235%-21—
22
CEDRIC HAWKINSRB SONO SNAPS
★3★2518%-2FELL
4
BRIAN SNEADRB SERET
★4—415%-47—
20
MIKE SHARPE IIRB JURET
★3★3252%-53HELD
37
TYLER WILLIAMSRB FRRET
UNR—00%——
43
KAM BOYDRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
45
CHANNING WOODSONRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE45TAL40PERF49RET54ROTATIONn=8 · 8 METRICS · 50 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
COURTNEY JACKSONWR SEPORTAL · SYRACUSE
★3★39128%+7HELD
7
COREY RUCKERWR SEPORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA
★3★38926%+30HELD
2
MILLER MCCRUMBYTE SERET
★3★38637%-19HELD
12
MANNY STEVENSON JR.TE SERET
UNR—8032%-17—
14
JEFF FOREMANWR SERET
★3—7618%+30—
15
REAGAN EALYWR SERET
UNR—7115%-46—
18
KEVIN DIAZTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—6820%——
11
ADAM JONESWR SERET
UNR—6210%+25—
11
TYLER LITTLETE SENO SNAPS
★3—5510%——
9
TENNEL BRYANTWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★3372%—HELD
3
CLYDE CURRYWR FRTRUE FR
★3—171%——
81
TAKARE LIPSCOMBWR SONO SNAPS
★3—150%——
8
KHMARI THOMPSONWR JUPORTAL · ILLINOIS
★3★3130%—HELD
85
DEANDRA BURNS JR.WR FRTRUE FR
★3★360%—HELD
2
CHAUNCY COBBWR SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
84
REED LINDERWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
6
WYATT BEGEALWR SORET
★3—00%——
41
NATHAN TILLMANTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
17
TRACE CORUMWR FRRET
UNR—00%——
46
BEAU-KIDD SMITHTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
82
PEARCE RUSSELLWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
86
BLAKE HEGWOODWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
28
CARTER SALZMANWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
1
CAM BULLUCKWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL42TAL59PERF42RET49n=5 · 3 METRICS · 15 OBS
▸DL48TAL45PERF48RET72n=11 · 7 METRICS · 55 OBS
▸LB41TAL31PERF41RET94n=6 · 10 METRICS · 45 OBS
▸DB43TAL35PERF43RET84n=7 · 6 METRICS · 37 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS21 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CLYDE CURRYHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
BRIAN ALSTONHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
DEANDRA BURNS JR.HS RECRUITWR★3UNR
TENNEL BRYANTHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
IAN JEFFRIESHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
TERRELL JAMESHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
DEAUBRY HOODHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
TAKARE LIPSCOMBHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
TYLER LITTLEHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
RJ KELLYHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN4 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
HAMILTON HALLOLE MISSOT★3★3
COREY RUCKERSOUTH CAROLINAWR★3★3
KHMARI THOMPSONILLINOISWR★3★3
J.T. SHROUTCOLORADOQB★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT34 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ETHAN MINERNORTH TEXASOL★2★3
KENNETH HARRISOKLAHOMA STATECB★3★3
KHYHEEM WALEEDDELAWARE STATEWR★3★3
AHMAD ROBINSONPRAIRIE VIEW A&MDB★3★3
KARON COLEMANWESTERN ILLINOISS★2UNR
JORDAN CARMOUCHEELIGIBILITY UPLB★3—
JADEN HARRISELIGIBILITY UPLB★3—
JORDAN RHODESELIGIBILITY UPOL★3—
KIVON BENNETTELIGIBILITY UPLB★3—
SEYDOU TRAOREELIGIBILITY UPTEUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES67%5 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS65%10 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#74NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 22 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8343COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
813 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
63TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
14
23
8
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +5 W
IMPROVED15 OF 63
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST22% BACK22th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG22% BACK22th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR49%49th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR10%10th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST84%84th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE