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● LIVE|2023 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
HOME›TEAMS›AUBURN›2023TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
SEC|HUGH FREEZE|—RECORD6-7|CONF—
AUBURN30 FPISEC · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
88FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
33%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
61%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1810 BC / 19
BC RATIO
41%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs7.5-4.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-1.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN+5.3
6 wins against a scoring profile describing 7.5. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE56
PERFORMANCE56
TALENT77
CONTINUITY33
DEFENSE85
PERFORMANCE85
TALENT79
CONTINUITY61
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
65MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
4 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2HMASSACHUSETTS—W 59-144566+67BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 9ACALIFORNIA—W 14-10685050+23BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 16HSAMFORD—W 45-13————NON-FBS OPPONENT
4SEP 23ATEXAS A&M—L 10-27988989-16BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 30HGEORGIA#4L 20-27999999-26BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 14ALSU#12L 18-48969292-19BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 21HOLE MISS—L 21-28849292-19BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 28HMISSISSIPPI STATE#9W 27-13805454+19BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4AVANDERBILT—W 31-15581717+56BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11AARKANSAS—W 48-10775959+14BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18HNEW MEXICO STATE—L 10-31174545+28BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25HALABAMA#5L 24-271009595-22BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 30AMARYLAND—L 13-31698585-12BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB55TAL71PERF55RET13ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 12 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
PAYTON THORNEQB SEPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE
★3★38184%0HELD
2
ROBBY ASHFORDQB SERET
★4★3419%-32FELL
11
HOLDEN GERINERQB SERET
★4★3284%—FELL
9
HANK BROWNQB SENO SNAPS
★3★3202%—HELD
17
SAWYER PATEQB SORET
★3—00%——
19
JACKSON BARKLEYQB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
16
JOHN COLVINQB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB51TAL66PERF51RET73ONE OWNERn=4 · 9 METRICS · 21 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
27
JARQUEZ HUNTERRB SERET
★3—9353%+30—
6
DAMARI ALSTONRB SERET
★4★36921%0FELL
21
BRIAN BATTIERB SEPORTAL · SOUTH FLORIDA
★3★36315%+32HELD
23
JEREMIAH COBBRB SENO SNAPS
★4—5611%+20—
8
BRENTON WILLIAMSRB JUNO SNAPS
★3★3140%—HELD
44
SEAN JACKSONRB JURET
UNR—171%+38—
35
JUSTIN JONESRB SERET
★2—121%——
36
LUKE REEBALSRB FRRET
UNR—00%——
26
CHRISTIAN BURNETTERB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE53TAL73PERF48RET65ROTATIONn=11 · 8 METRICS · 46 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
13
RIVALDO FAIRWEATHERTE SEPORTAL · FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
★3★49144%+29ROSE
9
JAY FAIRWR SERET
★3★37420%-5HELD
87
BRANDON FRAZIERTE SERET
★4—6819%——
4
CAMDEN BROWNWR SERET
★3★36815%-8HELD
11
SHANE HOOKSWR SEPORTAL · JACKSON STATE
★3★46815%+29ROSE
86
LUKE DEALTE SERET
★3—6718%-32—
1
MALCOLM JOHNSON JR.WR SERET
★4★36615%-40FELL
9
JA'VARRIUS JOHNSONWR SERET
★4★36010%+30FELL
10
CALEB BURTON IIIWR SONO SNAPS
★4★3599%+28FELL
88
MICAH RILEYTE SERET
★4★3549%—FELL
7
TYLER FROMMTE SERET
★4★3549%+10FELL
1
OMARI KELLYWR SERET
★4★3526%-38FELL
5
KOY MOOREWR SERET
★4★3515%+2FELL
42
TATE JOHNSONTE SERET
★3—432%——
4
JYAIRE SHORTERWR SEPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS
★3★3382%+36HELD
8
NICK MARDNERWR SEPORTAL · CINCINNATI
★2★3302%+30ROSE
28
CAMDEN ETHEREDGETE JURET
UNR—80%——
28
GRANT HIDALGOTE JURET
UNR—00%——
30
KASSIDY WOODSWR SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
28
JACKSON BILLINGSWR SORET
★2—00%——
32
TRENT MASONWR SERET
UNR—00%——
89
WHIT JOHNSONWR FRRET
UNR—00%——
82
JAKE KRUSEWR SORET
UNR—00%——
83
COLBY STAFFORDWR JURET
UNR—00%——
80
WILL UPTONWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL50TAL87PERF50RET7n=8 · 3 METRICS · 23 OBS
▸DL60TAL75PERF60RET38n=9 · 8 METRICS · 52 OBS
▸LB73TAL83PERF73RET46n=6 · 11 METRICS · 49 OBS
▸DB62TAL81PERF62RET84n=9 · 8 METRICS · 52 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS13 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
KELDRIC FAULKHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
KAYIN LEEHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
JEREMIAH COBBHS RECRUITRB★4UNR
DJ REEDHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
SYLVESTER SMITHHS RECRUITS★4UNR
TERRANCE LOVEHS RECRUITS★4UNR
TYLER SCOTTHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
COLTON HOODHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
WILKY DENAUDHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
CONNOR LEWHS RECRUITIOL★4UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN12 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
AVERY JONESEAST CAROLINAIOL★4★4
DILLON WADETULSAOT★3★4
JUSTIN ROGERSKENTUCKYDL★4★4
RIVALDO FAIRWEATHERFLORIDA INTERNATIONALTE★3★4
GUNNER BRITTONWESTERN KENTUCKYOT★2★4
BRIAN BATTIESOUTH FLORIDARB★3★4
MOSIAH NASILI-KITEMARYLANDDL★3★4
CALEB BURTONOHIO STATEWRUNR★4
DEMARIO TOLANLSULB★4★4
JYAIRE SHORTERNORTH TEXASWR★3★4
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT31 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
KEIONDRE JONESFLORIDA STATEOL★4★3
DYLAN BROOKSKANSASDE★4★3
JEFFREY M'BAPURDUEDT★3★3
TJ FINLEYTEXAS STATEQB★3★3
DESMOND TISDOLFLORIDA ATLANTICLB★4UNR
LANDEN KINGUTAHTE★3★3
ZE'VIAN CAPERSWESTERN KENTUCKYWR★4★4
TAR'VARISH DAWSONCOLORADOWR★4★4
KILIAN ZIERERELIGIBILITY UPOLUNR—
OWEN PAPPOEELIGIBILITY UPLB★5—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES42%6 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS45%7 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#18NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
10OF 19 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8966COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2020 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
125TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
4
23
33
36
29
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +8 W
IMPROVED65 OF 125
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST66% BACK66th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG66% BACK66th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR7%7th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR13%13th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST84%84th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE