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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
MID-AMERICAN|MIKE UREMOVICH|—RECORD4-8|CONF—
BALL STATE132 FPIMAC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
17FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
28%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
51%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-10IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1190 BC / 16
BC RATIO
3%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs2.2-9.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+1.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN-14.0
4 wins against a scoring profile describing 2.2. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE2
PERFORMANCE2
TALENT34
CONTINUITY28
DEFENSE20
PERFORMANCE20
TALENT28
CONTINUITY51
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
36MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
0 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30APURDUE—L 0-31613434-31BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 6AAUBURN—L 3-42917979-76BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 13HNEW HAMPSHIRE—W 34-29————NON-FBS OPPONENT
4SEP 20AUCONN—L 25-31306161-58BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4HOHIO—W 20-1493939-36BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11AWESTERN MICHIGAN—L 0-42244343-40BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18HAKRON—W 42-28251414-11BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25ANORTHERN ILLINOIS—L 7-21966-3BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 5HKENT STATE—W 17-13744-1BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15HEASTERN MICHIGAN—L 9-24321313-10BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22ATOLEDO—L 9-38466565-62BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29AMIAMI (OH)—L 24-45374040-37BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB49TAL62PERF49RET100ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
KIAEL KELLYQB SERET
★3★385100%-40HELD
15
AIDAN LEFFLERQB JURET
★2—00%——
7
WALTER TAYLORQB SEPORTAL · COLORADO
UNR★300%—EMERGED
12
BRADYN FLEHARTYQB FRPORTAL · YALE
★2★300%—ROSE
9
BODIE DERRERQB SORET
UNR—00%——
13
KHALEL WRIGHTQB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
▾RB34TAL17PERF34RET30ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 17 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
QUA ASHLEYRB JUPORTAL · KENNESAW STATE
UNR★38654%-6EMERGED
4
TJ HORTONRB JURET
★3—7230%-38—
2
JALEN BONDSRB FRTRUE FR
★2—5310%-62—
0
ELIJAH JACKSONRB JUPORTAL · PURDUE
UNR★3293%+36EMERGED
24
JALEN ALEXANDERRB FRRET
★3—263%——
36
CHARLIE SPEGALRB SERET
★2★200%-15HELD
▾WR/TE34TAL44PERF34RET28ROTATIONn=7 · 8 METRICS · 41 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
85
KAM ANTHONYTE JURET
★3★38740%+2HELD
5
QIAN MAGWOODWR SERET
★3—8732%-26—
3
ERIC WEATHERLYWR JUPORTAL · BUCKNELL
★3★37824%-29HELD
1
DONOVAN HAMILTONWR SOPORTAL · PURDUE
★3★37521%-17HELD
84
TATE HOOVERTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—7323%——
6
KOBY GROSSTE SEPORTAL · FLORIDA A&M
★3★37021%-16HELD
10
TY ROBINSONWR SERET
★3★36613%+13HELD
89
DREW CASSENSTE SEPORTAL · BUTLER
UNR★36012%—EMERGED
14
ELISHA DURHAMWR SONO SNAPS
★3—434%——
44
MAXIMUS WEBSTERTE SORET
★2—403%-30—
10
JAMARION MCDOUGLEWR SERET
★3—352%——
11
ISAIAH THACKERWR JURET
★3—302%——
82
DAHYA PATELWR JURET
UNR—292%+12—
87
JACKSON CONSTANTINETE JURET
UNR—201%——
17
TREY FIRESTONEWR SORET
UNR★3140%—EMERGED
83
ELI HOHLTWR JURET
UNR—00%——
19
NICK PRESLEYWR SERET
★2—00%-63—
81
LEO COLLINSTE JURET
UNR—00%——
36
BEN DUTTONTE SOPORTAL · WASHINGTON STATE
★2★200%—HELD
80
DERION TALBERTWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
86
MASON RIGGINSTE FRTRUE FR
★2—00%——
▸OL21TAL23PERF21RET14n=7 · 3 METRICS · 21 OBS
▸DL46TAL24PERF46RET62n=5 · 7 METRICS · 27 OBS
▸LB45TAL27PERF45RET53n=11 · 11 METRICS · 60 OBS
▸DB40TAL31PERF40RET27n=10 · 8 METRICS · 56 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS11 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JAMAR BIRDENHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
ELISHA DURHAMHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
MICHAEL THACKERHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
SAM SPICERHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
LUCAS SZYMBORSKIHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
KHALEL WRIGHTHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
DERION TALBERTHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
KADEN MAYLEHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
TOBI ADEWOYINHS RECRUITS★3UNR
DONOVAN LANIERHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN14 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ADAM DOLANBUTLEROTUNR★3
JORDAN KINGPURDUEIOL★3★3
GEORGE OKORIEVANDERBILTEDGE★3★3
DONOVAN HAMILTONPURDUEWR★3★3
AVERY STUARTKENTUCKYS★4★3
WALTER TAYLOR IIICOLORADOQBUNR★3
AMEIR GLENNWAKE FORESTDL★3★3
ASHTON NAWROCKIBUTLEREDGEUNR★3
KOBY GROSSFLORIDA A&MTE★3★3
OTTO HESSBOSTON COLLEGEIOL★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT38 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TARAN TYOCINCINNATIOL★3★3
JORDAN COLEMANILLINOIS STATEDB★3UNR
MYLES NORWOODSOUTH CAROLINADBUNR★3
TANNER KOZIOLHOUSTONTE★2★4
DD SNYDERMASSACHUSETTSS★3★3
THAI BALDWINCHARLOTTEDB★3★2
CAM PICKETTKANSASWR★3★3
CHRISTIAN ABNEYILLINOISTE★3★3
MALCOLM GILLIECOASTAL CAROLINAWRUNR★3
DAKARI FRAZIERWESTERN MICHIGANDL★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES81%7 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS83%11 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#119NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 16 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8212COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2434 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
73TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
15
14
24
9
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +1.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +5 W
IMPROVED33 OF 73
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST11% BACK11th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG11% BACK11th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR14%14th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR100%100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST27%27th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE