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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2022 FINAL
MID-AMERICAN|SCOT LOEFFLER|—RECORD6-7|CONF—
BOWLING GREEN122 FPIMAC · 2022 SEASON
TALENT
23FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
13%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
0%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1090 BC / 10
BC RATIO
1%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2022 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs3.7-8.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+2.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN-9.4
6 wins against a scoring profile describing 3.7. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE19
PERFORMANCE19
TALENT48
CONTINUITY13
DEFENSE22
PERFORMANCE22
TALENT46
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
34MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 3AUCLA#21L 17-45808585-78BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 10HEASTERN KENTUCKY—L 57-59————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 17HMARSHALL—W 34-31315555-48BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 24AMISSISSIPPI STATE#20L 14-45808686-79BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5OCT 1AAKRON—W 31-283233+4BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 8HBUFFALO—L 7-38162626-19BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 15HMIAMI (OH)—W 17-13202121-14BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 22ACENTRAL MICHIGAN—W 34-18181515-8BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 2HWESTERN MICHIGAN—W 13-93188-1BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 9HKENT STATE—L 6-40191818-11BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15ATOLEDO—W 42-35433838-31BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22AOHIO—L 14-38153535-28BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 26HNEW MEXICO STATE—L 19-2471212-5BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB31TAL29PERF31RET87ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 10 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
3
MATT MCDONALDQB SERET
★3—9187%-14—
11
CAMDEN ORTHQB SENO SNAPS
UNR—5013%-6—
6
DREW GUNTHERQB JURET
UNR—00%——
7
OWEN BAINBRIDGEQB FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
▾RB45TAL40PERF45RET95ROTATIONn=4 · 9 METRICS · 20 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
TA'RON KEITHRB SERET
★3★38540%+10HELD
28
JAISON PATTERSONRB SERET
★3—7930%-32—
6
JAMAL JOHNSONRB SERET
★2—6719%+5—
5
NICK MOSLEYRB JURET
★3★3466%-10HELD
30
PASEAN WIMBERLYRB SERET
UNR—394%-49—
25
JAYLEN JENNINGSRB FRTRUE FR
★3★3171%—HELD
8
TERION STEWARTRB SERET
★3★300%+34HELD
TREVON RAYMORERB JURET
★2—00%——
24
BRAXTON TODDRB FRTRUE FR
★2★200%—HELD
▾WR/TE46TAL42PERF46RET62ROTATIONn=8 · 8 METRICS · 52 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
ODIEU HILIAREWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—9733%+13—
88
CHRISTIAN SIMSTE SERET
★2—9237%+20—
5
TYRONE BRODENWR SERET
★3★49128%+32ROSE
11
CJ LEWISWR SENO SNAPS
★3—8524%-8—
10
LEVI GAZAREKTE SERET
★3—7521%-32—
HAROLD FANNIN JR.TE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—7520%+16—
89
ANDREW BENCHTE SERET
★2★37218%+12ROSE
85
CAVON CROOMWR SERET
UNR—6410%-17—
9
GRIFFIN LITTLETE JURET
★3—434%——
18
AUSTIN OSBORNEWR SERET
★4★4412%-62HELD
8
JHAYLIN EMBRYWR JURET
★2—392%——
45
ROCCO HICKSTE SORET
★3—191%——
87
JAEDYN MCKINSTRYWR JURET
★3★3170%—HELD
81
BRYCE BOYERTE SORET
★2—00%——
3
TREY JOHNSONWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
86
IAN DRUMMONDTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
2
JAVONTE KINSEYTE SORET
★3★300%—HELD
14
JAKE ROGERSWR JURET
★2—00%——
13
NICK NIEHOFFWR JURET
UNR—00%——
7
TAE'SHAUN JOHNSONWR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
23
TY COOKWR SORET
UNR—00%——
27
NIC KILBRIDETE JURET
UNR—00%——
82
ZACH RUSSELLTE FRRET
★3—00%——
83
JALEN HOLLYWR FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
87
PRINCETON HOSKINSWR SORET
UNR—00%——
▸OL37TAL51PERF37RET0n=7 · 3 METRICS · 20 OBS
▸DL50TAL43PERF50RET93n=10 · 8 METRICS · 58 OBS
▸LB36TAL52PERF36RET74n=8 · 11 METRICS · 53 OBS
▸DB39TAL47PERF39RET66n=8 · 8 METRICS · 45 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS10 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DAVONTE MILESHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
JALEN HOLLYHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JAYLEN JENNINGSHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
MARKIM MCKINNIEHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
OWEN BAINBRIDGEHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
JOSEPH SIPP JR.HS RECRUITLB★3UNR
DARIUS LORFILSHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
CANAAN WILLIAMSHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
JALEN HUSKEYHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
BRAXTON TODDHS RECRUITLB★2UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT12 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MATT NARANJOELIGIBILITY UPPUNR—
JAMES CAROLANELIGIBILITY UPLS★2—
SY DABNEYELIGIBILITY UPDBUNR—
DEVIN TAYLORELIGIBILITY UPDBUNR—
DIATA BURNSELIGIBILITY UPCBUNR—
MATT KORDASNOT LISTEDDB★3—
JEVON HENDERSONNOT LISTEDDL★3—
ELIJAH EBERHARDTNOT LISTEDCB★3—
TUCKER MELTONNOT LISTEDQB★3—
MYLES WILLIAMSONNOT LISTEDDB★2—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#109NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 10 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8217COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
00 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
123TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
22
31
30
29
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +7 W
IMPROVED59 OF 123
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST99% BACK99th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG99% BACK99th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR87%87th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST66%66th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE