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HOME›TEAMS›BUFFALO›2023TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
MID-AMERICAN|MAURICE LINGUIST|—RECORD3-9|CONF—
BUFFALO117 FPIMAC · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
8FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
78%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
65%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-4IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#840 BC / 14
BC RATIO
0%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
3-9ACTUALvs4.1-7.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN-6.5
3 wins against a scoring profile describing 4.1. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE3
PERFORMANCE3
TALENT42
CONTINUITY78
DEFENSE33
PERFORMANCE33
TALENT36
CONTINUITY65
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
39MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2AWISCONSIN—L 17-38797878-67BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 9HFORDHAM—L 37-40————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 16HLIBERTY#25L 27-5597575-64BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 23ALOUISIANA—L 38-45315353-42BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 30AAKRON—W 13-102622+9BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 7HCENTRAL MICHIGAN—W 37-13955+6BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 14HBOWLING GREEN—L 14-24182929-18BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 21AKENT STATE—W 24-61500+11BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10OCT 31ATOLEDO—L 13-31376161-50BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 7HOHIO—L 10-20124747-36BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15AMIAMI (OH)—L 10-23215656-45BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 21HEASTERN MICHIGAN—L 11-24161818-7BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB39TAL75PERF39RET95ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 11 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
10
COLE SNYDERQB SERET
★3★39195%-23HELD
7
CJ OGBONNAQB SEPORTAL · SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
UNR★3315%—EMERGED
15
MASON CUMBIEQB SENO SNAPS
★2—00%——
4
MIKE DEPILLOQB SORET
★2—00%——
17
RICHIE WATTSQB JUNO SNAPS
UNR★200%—EMERGED
9
GUNNAR GRAYQB SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
18
ANTHONY POLICAREQB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB25TAL14PERF25RET84ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 23 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
2
RON COOK JR.RB SERET
★2—9653%-18—
4
MIKE WASHINGTON JR.RB SERET
★2★28330%-30HELD
23
JACQEZ BARKSDALERB SENO SNAPS
UNR—6615%+8—
32
LAMAR SPERLINGRB JUNO SNAPS
★3★3211%—HELD
5
AL-JAY HENDERSONRB SERET
★3—191%+2—
10
MARK-ANTHONY SCOTT JR.RB SERET
UNR—00%——
24
DYLAN KEDZIORRB SENO SNAPS
UNR★300%—EMERGED
▾WR/TE19TAL56PERF23RET50ONE OWNERn=8 · 7 METRICS · 43 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
11
MARLYN JOHNSONWR SERET
★3★39127%-24HELD
COLE HARRITYWR SERET
★2—8926%-32—
10
CAM BALLTE SERET
★3★38245%-41HELD
5
BOOBIE CURRYWR SERET
UNR—7919%-11—
3
DARRELL HARDING JR.WR SENO SNAPS
★3—7517%+28—
89
ZION CARTERTE SEPORTAL · DARTMOUTH
★2★36220%—ROSE
81
JAKE ORLANDOTE SENO SNAPS
★3—5917%-41—
5
NIK MCMILLANWR SERET
★3★3577%+24HELD
6
CHANCE MORROWWR SENO SNAPS
★3★3402%—HELD
6
MICAH WOODSWR SENO SNAPS
UNR★3271%—EMERGED
1
QUA SANDERSWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—241%——
0
VICTOR SNOWWR SENO SNAPS
UNR★3211%—EMERGED
83
TADD BARRWR SERET
UNR—00%——
88
RYAN DALYTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
19
JAVIEN CUFFWR SERET
★3★200%—FELL
44
WYATT MOLINICHTE SERET
UNR—00%——
86
AIDAN WALLINEWR JURET
UNR—00%——
87
JEREMY YANCEYWR JURET
UNR—00%——
42
MITCH VIVIANOTE SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
4
MESSIAH BURCHWR SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
34
BODHI OGGTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL43TAL27PERF43RET87n=6 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL35TAL19PERF35RET84n=7 · 7 METRICS · 34 OBS
▸LB43TAL38PERF43RET44n=6 · 11 METRICS · 52 OBS
▸DB45TAL46PERF45RET61n=9 · 8 METRICS · 54 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS14 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JEVELL FUGERSONHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
DION CRAWFORDHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
JAMARI FORDHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
DEVON RAINEYHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
LAMAR SPERLINGHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
MITCH VIVIANOHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
NICKOLAS ROYHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
CHARLES MCCARTHERENSHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
MESSIAH BURCHHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
JUNIOR POYSERHS RECRUITDL★2UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN9 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ZION CARTERDARTMOUTHTE★2★3
DEMETRIUS HARRISCORNELLSUNR★3
JOE ANDREESSENBRYANTLBUNR★3
D'ANDRE GREELEYCOLORADO STATECB★3★3
CJ OGBONNASOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATEQBUNR★3
NICK BEANSNOTRE DAME COLLEGEIOLUNR★3
JYAIRE STEVENSLAFAYETTEEDGE★3★3
JACOB ORLANDOMASSACHUSETTSTEUNR★3
DARRELL HARDINGDUKEWRUNR★2
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT27 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JACK HASZUNLVOLUNR★3
KEYSHAWN COBBWEST VIRGINIASUNR★3
TREVOR BORLANDWESTERN KENTUCKYTE★2★2
JAMARI GASSETTFLORIDA A&MWR★3★3
DESMOND BESSENTELIGIBILITY UPOL★3—
JAMES PATTERSONELIGIBILITY UPLB★2—
JAHMIN MUSEELIGIBILITY UPS★3—
IBRAHIM KANTEELIGIBILITY UPDE★3—
DAMIAN JACKSONELIGIBILITY UPDEUNR—
ISAIAH KINGELIGIBILITY UPCB★2—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES31%6 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS72%9 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#84NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 14 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8192COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
913 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKRETURNS
27TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
2
6
10
5
4
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +1.0 W
FULL RANGE-4 TO +8 W
IMPROVED9 OF 27
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST79% BACK79th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG79% BACK79th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR87%87th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR95%95th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST61%61th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE