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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
ACC|JUSTIN WILCOX|—RECORD6-7|CONF—
CALIFORNIA48 FPIACC · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
68FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
50%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
49%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-6IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#791 BC / 14
BC RATIO
18%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
6-6ACTUALvs5.8-6.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN-1.1
6 wins against a scoring profile describing 5.8. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE70
PERFORMANCE70
TALENT69
CONTINUITY50
DEFENSE67
PERFORMANCE67
TALENT71
CONTINUITY49
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
66MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2ANORTH TEXAS—W 58-21303636+14BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 9HAUBURN—L 10-14887373-23BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 16HIDAHO—W 31-17————NON-FBS OPPONENT
4SEP 23AWASHINGTON#2L 32-59829191-41BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 30HARIZONA STATE—W 24-21692020+30BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 7HOREGON STATE—L 40-52618686-36BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 14AUTAH—L 14-34777777-27BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 28HUSC—L 49-50957878-28BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4AOREGON#6L 19-63939898-48BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11HWASHINGTON STATE—W 42-39466363-13BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18ASTANFORD—W 27-15741919+31BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25AUCLA—W 33-7828080-30BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 16ATEXAS TECH—L 14-34726868-18BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB65TAL76PERF65RET0ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 11 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
15
FERNANDO MENDOZAQB JURET
★2★47673%+21ROSE
10
BEN FINLEYQB SEPORTAL · NC STATE
★3★36027%-35HELD
19
TYLER JENSENQB SORET
UNR★300%—EMERGED
20
BELAY BRUMMELQB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
27
BRADY WEINGARTQB FRTRUE FR
★2—00%——
▾RB64TAL87PERF64RET74ONE OWNERn=4 · 9 METRICS · 19 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
0
JAYDN OTTRB SERET
★4★49864%+5HELD
22
ISAIAH IFANSERB SEPORTAL · SAN JOSÉ STATE
★3★36617%+38HELD
31
ASHTON STREDICKRB SORET
★3—5610%-5—
21
JAIVIAN THOMASRB SENO SNAPS
★3★3425%+29HELD
6
JUSTIN WILLIAMS-THOMASRB SEPORTAL · TENNESSEE
★4★3414%-49FELL
44
BEAUX TAGALOAFB JURET
★3★300%—HELD
23
KING DOERUERB JUPORTAL · PURDUE
★3★300%-39HELD
21
BYRON CARDWELL JR.RB SENO SNAPS
★4★300%+28FELL
33
DEAN-TAYLOR CHAPMANRB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE64TAL73PERF63RET34ONE OWNERn=7 · 8 METRICS · 40 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
88
JACK ENDRIESTE JURET
★3★49569%+25ROSE
6
JEREMIAH HUNTERWR SERET
★3★39531%+25HELD
7
TROND GRIZZELLWR SERET
UNR—8824%+16—
9
TAJ DAVISWR JUPORTAL · WASHINGTON
★3★38019%+4HELD
14
MONROE YOUNGWR SERET
★3—6913%-11—
89
ASHER ALBERDINGTE JUPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS
★3★36220%—HELD
7
BRIAN HIGHTOWERWR SEPORTAL · ILLINOIS
★4★3597%+2FELL
86
JEFFREY JOHNSONTE SERET
★3—478%——
3
MAVIN ANDERSONWR SERET
★4★3463%-29FELL
20
MARQUIS MONTGOMERYWR SENO SNAPS
UNR★3372%—EMERGED
88
J.T. BYRNETE SEPORTAL · OREGON STATE
★3★3293%—HELD
5
MOJO DORTCHWR SENO SNAPS
★4★460%—HELD
4
JORDAN KINGWR SERET
UNR—00%——
16
JAIVEN PLUMMERWR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
89
BEN MARSHALLTE SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
18
SAM JACKSON VWR SENO SNAPS
★4★300%—FELL
16
MASON MANGUMWR SORET
★3—00%——
26
GRANT DALEYWR SORET
★3—00%——
82
KENDEN ROBINSON JR.WR JURET
UNR—00%——
13
NYZIAH HUNTERWR JUNO SNAPS
★4★400%—HELD
9
MASON STARLINGWR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
91
MOSO'OIPALA TUITELETE JURET
★3★300%—HELD
83
MYLES REBERWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL60TAL62PERF60RET60n=6 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL48TAL58PERF48RET60n=7 · 7 METRICS · 32 OBS
▸LB46TAL87PERF46RET48n=11 · 11 METRICS · 61 OBS
▸DB57TAL71PERF57RET44n=8 · 8 METRICS · 48 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS9 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
NYZIAH HUNTERHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
JAIVIAN THOMASHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
CADE ULUAVEHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
BEN MARSHALLHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
FREDERICK WILLIAMSHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
TIUMALU AFALAVAHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
SAI VADRAWALE IIIHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
RYAN MCCULLOCHHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
ZURICH ASHFORDHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN16 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
NOHL WILLIAMSUNLVCB★3★4
PATRICK MCMORRISSAN DIEGO STATECB★2★4
SAM JACKSONTCUQBUNR★4
JUSTIN WILLIAMS-THOMASTENNESSEERB★4★3
MATTHEW WYKOFFTEXAS A&MIOL★3★3
MARQUEZ DORTCHMISSISSIPPI STATEWRUNR★3
BYRON CARDWELLOREGONRBUNR★3
TAJ DAVISWASHINGTONWR★3★3
ISAIAH IFANSESAN JOSÉ STATERB★3★3
MARCUS SCOTT IIMISSOURICB★4★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT28 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
OLUWAFEMI OLADEJOUCLALB★3UNR
JACK PLUMMERLOUISVILLEQB★3★3
J. MICHAEL STURDIVANTUCLAWR★4UNR
KELEKI LATUNEVADATE★3★3
JERMAINE TERRY IIOREGON STATETE★4★3
ELIJAH MOJARRORICETE★3UNR
SPENCER LOVELLKANSASOL★3★3
ORIN PATUARIZONADL★3★4
DECARLOS BROOKSARIZONA STATERB★3★3
KAI MILLNERNORTHERN ARIZONAQB★4★4
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES44%6 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS40%8 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#79NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
1OF 14 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8430COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2026 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKNEW
39TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
2
14
4
12
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.5 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-5 TO +8 W
IMPROVED19 OF 39
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST34% BACK34th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG34% BACK34th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR60%60th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST44%44th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE