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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
ACC|JUSTIN WILCOX|—RECORD6-7|CONF—
CALIFORNIA51 FPIACC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
66FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
43%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
65%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#551 BC / 20
BC RATIO
21%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs7.1-4.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-5
AVG SCORING MARGIN+3.9
6 wins against a scoring profile describing 7.1. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE47
PERFORMANCE47
TALENT68
CONTINUITY43
DEFENSE65
PERFORMANCE65
TALENT74
CONTINUITY65
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
54MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
4 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31HUC DAVIS—W 31-13————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 7AAUBURN—W 21-14887676-17BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 14HSAN DIEGO STATE—W 31-10451111+48BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21AFLORIDA STATE—L 9-14913838+21BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5HMIAMI#18L 38-39919393-34BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12APITTSBURGH—L 15-17696262-3BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19HNC STATE—L 23-247259590BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26HOREGON STATE—W 44-7472828+31BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8AWAKE FOREST—W 46-36493030+29BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16HSYRACUSE#20L 25-33666666-7BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23HSTANFORD—W 24-21702424+35BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30ASMU#12L 6-38829292-33BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 18AUNLV#23L 13-24397474-15BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB54TAL84PERF54RET81ONE OWNERn=3 · 8 METRICS · 12 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
15
FERNANDO MENDOZAQB JURET
★2★48881%+21ROSE
16
CJ HARRISQB SOPORTAL · OHIO
★3★3438%-40HELD
7
CHANDLER ROGERSQB SENO SNAPS
★3—407%+17—
2
EJ CAMINONGQB SONO SNAPS
★3★3345%—HELD
23
ANDREW MAUSHARDTQB FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
20
BELAY BRUMMELQB SORET
UNR—00%——
▾RB46TAL83PERF46RET84ONE OWNERn=4 · 9 METRICS · 22 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
0
JAYDN OTTRB SERET
★4★48746%-6HELD
21
JAIVIAN THOMASRB SERET
★3★38238%+28HELD
21
BYRON CARDWELL JR.RB SERET
★4★3507%+22FELL
1
KADARIUS CALLOWAYRB SEPORTAL · OLD DOMINION
★4★3497%+30FELL
28
JAMAAL WILEYRB FRTRUE FR
★3—161%——
9
JUSTIN WILLIAMS-THOMASRB SERET
★4★300%-49FELL
33
DEAN-TAYLOR CHAPMANRB JURET
UNR—00%——
24
JAYDEN PARKERRB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE60TAL71PERF49RET36ONE OWNERn=11 · 8 METRICS · 59 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
88
JACK ENDRIESTE JURET
★3★48959%+46ROSE
13
NYZIAH HUNTERWR JURET
★4★48919%+10HELD
0
JONATHAN BRADYWR SEPORTAL · NEW MEXICO STATE
★2★38819%-8ROSE
7
MIKEY MATTHEWSWR SEPORTAL · UTAH
★4★38316%-28FELL
7
TROND GRIZZELLWR SERET
UNR—8014%+11—
10
COREY DYCHESTE SEPORTAL · MARYLAND
★3★37031%+30HELD
3
MAVIN ANDERSONWR SERET
★4★3678%-37FELL
18
TOBIAS MERRIWEATHERWR SEPORTAL · NOTRE DAME
★4★3626%+32FELL
9
MASON STARLINGWR SERET
★3★3605%-1HELD
6
JOSIAH MARTINWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★3595%-10HELD
4
JORDAN KINGWR SERET
UNR—554%-46—
19
TREVOR ROGERSWR SONO SNAPS
★4—462%——
86
JEFFREY JOHNSONTE SERET
★3—374%——
88
J.T. BYRNETE SERET
★3★3354%—HELD
6
KYION GRAYESWR JUPORTAL · OHIO STATE
★4★3261%—FELL
89
BEN MARSHALLTE SORET
★3★3191%—HELD
82
COLE BOSCIAWR SENO SNAPS
★2—00%——
84
JAIVEN PLUMMERWR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
81
CAMDEN JONESTE FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
83
MYLES REBERWR SORET
UNR—00%——
26
ISAAC TORRESWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
22
CARSON PERRY-SMITHWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL40TAL62PERF40RET43n=8 · 3 METRICS · 22 OBS
▸DL52TAL70PERF52RET65n=6 · 7 METRICS · 35 OBS
▸LB68TAL78PERF68RET56n=9 · 11 METRICS · 58 OBS
▸DB69TAL71PERF69RET75n=9 · 8 METRICS · 51 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS10 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TREVOR ROGERSHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
BJ CANADYHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
EJ CAMINONGHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
JOSIAH MARTINHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
BROOKLYN CHEEKHS RECRUITS★3UNR
DAYDAY AUPIUHS RECRUITS★3UNR
JAMAAL WILEYHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
CAMDEN JONESHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
AIDEN NEWBILLHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
EZE OSONDUHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN15 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MARCUS HARRISIDAHOCB★2★4
KADARIUS CALLOWAYOLD DOMINIONRB★4★4
TOBIAS MERRIWEATHERNOTRE DAMEWR★4★4
MIKEY MATTHEWSUTAHWR★4★4
JASIAH WAGONEROKLAHOMACB★4★3
CHANDLER ROGERSNORTH TEXASQBUNR★3
TEDDYE BUCHANANUC DAVISLB★2★3
KYION GRAYESOHIO STATEWR★4★3
COREY DYCHESMARYLANDTE★3★3
JONATHAN BRADYNEW MEXICO STATEWR★2★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT36 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
KALEB ELARMS-ORRTCULB★3★4
JEREMIAH EARBYBOISE STATEDB★3★3
MYLES JERNIGANLOUISVILLEDL★3★3
JEREMIAH HUNTERWASHINGTONWR★3★3
KAYLIN MOOREUCLADB★5★3
BEN FINLEYAKRONQB★3★3
BRAYDEN ROHMEMASSACHUSETTSOL★3★3
RAYMOND WOODIE IIIBETHUNE-COOKMANDB★4★3
ANDY ALFIERIOREGON STATELB★3★3
SAILASA VADRAWALE IIIOREGON STATEDB★3UNR
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES32%8 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS57%8 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#55NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
1OF 20 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8524COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2323 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKRETURNS
28TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
0
4
12
4
8
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +3.0 W
FULL RANGE-3 TO +5 W
IMPROVED12 OF 28
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST66% BACK66th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG66% BACK66th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR43%43th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR81%81th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST75%75th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE