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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
BIG TEN|CURT CIGNETTI|—RECORD16-0|CONF—
INDIANA#1 AP 1 FPIB1G · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
48FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
58%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
68%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-4IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#471 BC / 26
BC RATIO
11%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
13-0ACTUALvs12.5-0.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-0
AVG SCORING MARGIN+31.1
13 wins against a scoring profile describing 12.5. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE99
PERFORMANCE99
TALENT72
CONTINUITY58
DEFENSE95
PERFORMANCE95
TALENT58
CONTINUITY68
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE16 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
68MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
6 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30HOLD DOMINION—W 27-14126464+36BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 6HKENNESAW STATE—W 56-943535+65BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 12HINDIANA STATE—W 73-0————NON-FBS OPPONENT
4SEP 20HILLINOIS—W 63-10548383+17BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 27AIOWA#17W 20-15709292+8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11AOREGON#4W 30-20979898+2BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18HMICHIGAN STATE—W 38-13734040+60BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25HUCLA—W 56-6822828+72BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1AMARYLAND—W 55-10634545+55BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8APENN STATE—W 27-24939090+10BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15HWISCONSIN—W 31-7803838+62BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 28APURDUE—W 56-3613434+66BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
15DEC 6AOHIO STATE#5W 13-10999999+1BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLJAN 1HALABAMA#9W 38-3998686+14BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLJAN 9HOREGON#4W 56-22979898+2BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLJAN 19HMIAMI#2W 27-21909494+6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB69TAL96PERF69RET5ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
15
FERNANDO MENDOZAQB JUPORTAL · CALIFORNIA
★2★49394%+21ROSE
15
ALBERTO MENDOZAQB JURET
★3★3415%+40HELD
2
GRANT WILSONQB SEPORTAL · OLD DOMINION
UNR★300%-23EMERGED
12
JACOB BELLQB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
14
MAVERICK GESKEQB FRTRUE FR
★2—00%——
▾RB65TAL80PERF65RET49ONE OWNERn=4 · 9 METRICS · 21 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
ROMAN HEMBYRB SEPORTAL · MARYLAND
★3★39747%+1HELD
8
KAELON BLACKRB SERET
★3★39236%+2HELD
28
KHOBIE MARTINRB SORET
★3—6512%+30—
29
LEE BEEBE JR.RB SEPORTAL · UAB
UNR★3474%+24EMERGED
18
SOLOMON VANHORSERB SERET
★2★3211%+20ROSE
20
SEAN CUONORB FRTRUE FR
★3—60%——
30
KYLER KROPPRB FRRET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE80TAL72PERF80RET53ONE OWNERn=7 · 8 METRICS · 41 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
37
RILEY NOWAKOWSKITE SEPORTAL · WISCONSIN
UNR★310070%+42EMERGED
3
OMAR COOPER JR.WR JURET
★4—9328%+30—
13
ELIJAH SARRATTWR SERET
UNR★49126%+35EMERGED
7
E.J. WILLIAMS JR.WR SERET
★4—8321%-4—
19
HOLDEN STAESTE SEPORTAL · TENNESSEE
★4★37726%-12FELL
80
CHARLIE BECKERWR JURET
★3—7414%+36—
0
JONATHAN BRADYWR SEPORTAL · CALIFORNIA
★2★3596%-7ROSE
48
JAMES BOMBATE SERET
★3★3455%-34HELD
6
LEBRON BONDWR SONO SNAPS
★3—402%——
2
MAKAI JACKSONWR SEPORTAL · APP STATE
UNR★3201%+26EMERGED
4
DAVION CHANDLERWR SONO SNAPS
★3—181%——
89
CAMDEN JORDANWR SERET
UNR—60%——
85
ANDREW BARKERTE FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
17
JACKSON WASSERSTROMWR SERET
UNR—00%——
9
TYLER MORRISWR SEPORTAL · MICHIGAN
★4★300%-3FELL
84
BLAKE THIRYTE FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
82
MYLES KENDRICKWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
22
ACE CIONGOLIWR SONO SNAPS
UNR★300%—EMERGED
26
CADE KAISERWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
83
HUNTER STROUDWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
86
BRUNO MASSEL IVWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL70TAL62PERF70RET58n=7 · 3 METRICS · 20 OBS
▸DL87TAL57PERF87RET57n=8 · 8 METRICS · 53 OBS
▸LB87TAL69PERF87RET100n=5 · 11 METRICS · 34 OBS
▸DB80TAL56PERF80RET58n=6 · 8 METRICS · 34 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS13 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BYRON BALDWIN JR.HS RECRUITS★4UNR
TRISTON ABRAMHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
TYRONE BURRUS JR.HS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
DAVION CHANDLERHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
SEAN CUONOHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
SEAONTA STEWART JR.HS RECRUITCB★3UNR
LEBRON BONDHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JAYLEN BELLHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
BLAKE THIRYHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
ZACHAREY SMITHHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN12 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
FERNANDO MENDOZACALIFORNIAQB★2★4
PAT COOGANNOTRE DAMEIOL★3★4
ROMAN HEMBYMARYLANDRB★3★3
AMARIYUN KNIGHTENNORTHERN ILLINOISCB★3★3
HOLDEN STAESTENNESSEETE★4★3
TYLER MORRISMICHIGANWR★4★3
RYLAND GANDYPITTSBURGHCB★3★3
STEPHEN DALEYKENT STATEEDGE★3★3
KELLAN WYATTMARYLANDEDGE★3★3
DOMINIQUE RATCLIFFTEXAS STATEDL★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT41 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MARCUS BURRIS JR.MEMPHISDL★4★3
SAM WESTMISSISSIPPI STATETE★3★3
AUSTIN BARRETTIOWA STATEOL★3★3
TAYVEN JACKSONUCFQB★4★3
VENSON SNEEDWESTERN KENTUCKYDE★3UNR
ELIJAH GREENSAM HOUSTONRB★3★3
DJ WARNELLNEVADADB★3UNR
NAHJI LOGANNEVADALB★3★2
ROBBY HARRISONWESTERN KENTUCKYDL★3★3
JOJO JOHNSONBOWLING GREENCB★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES86%10 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS64%10 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#47NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
1OF 26 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8572COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2327 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
63TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
14
23
8
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +5 W
IMPROVED15 OF 63
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST15% BACK15th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG15% BACK15th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR58%58th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR5%5th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST58%58th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE