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● LIVE|2024 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
BIG 12|MATT CAMPBELL|—RECORD11-3|CONF—
IOWA STATE#15 AP 28 FPIB12 · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
51FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
72%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
89%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-14IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#530 BC / 23
BC RATIO
3%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
10-3ACTUALvs9.0-4.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN+8.7
10 wins against a scoring profile describing 9.0. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE62
PERFORMANCE62
TALENT76
CONTINUITY72
DEFENSE64
PERFORMANCE64
TALENT67
CONTINUITY89
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE14 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
62MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31HNORTH DAKOTA—W 21-3————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 7AIOWA—W 20-19728989-9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21HARKANSAS STATE—W 52-7382323+57BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28AHOUSTON—W 20-0532424+56BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5HBAYLOR—W 43-21697272+8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12AWEST VIRGINIA—W 28-16615252+28BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19HUCF—W 38-35775555+25BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 2HTEXAS TECH—L 22-23736060+20BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 9AKANSAS—L 36-45656262+18BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16HCINCINNATI—W 34-17574747+33BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23AUTAH—W 31-28777171+9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30HKANSAS STATE—W 29-21548787-7BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
15DEC 7AARIZONA STATE#7L 19-45797474+6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 28AMIAMI#18W 42-41919393-13BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB63TAL98PERF63RET98ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
3
ROCCO BECHTQB SERET
★3★49898%+23ROSE
5
CONNOR MOBERLYQB SONO SNAPS
★3—252%——
17
JJ KOHLQB JURET
★4★300%—FELL
7
TANNER HUGHESQB JURET
★2—00%——
16
WYATT BOHMQB JURET
UNR—00%——
14
MAJOR CANTRELLQB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾RB44TAL83PERF44RET71ROTATIONn=3 · 9 METRICS · 19 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
21
CARSON HANSENRB SERET
★3★39341%+7HELD
3
ABU SAMA IIIRB SERET
★3★38630%+19HELD
12
JAYLON JACKSONRB SEPORTAL · EASTERN MICHIGAN
★3★38326%-11HELD
22
DYLAN LEERB SONO SNAPS
★3★3252%-38HELD
21
AIDEN FLORARB SONO SNAPS
UNR—252%+2—
25
EASTON MILLERRB JURET
UNR—90%——
15
CHARLES WHELPLEYRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE54TAL71PERF56RET74ONE OWNERn=9 · 8 METRICS · 47 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
84
GABE BURKLETE SERET
★3★39946%-25HELD
13
JAYLIN NOELWR SERET
★3—9934%+27—
9
JAYDEN HIGGINSWR SERET
UNR—9934%+35—
3
CARSON BROWNWR SERET
★3★38521%-59HELD
49
STEVO KLOTZTE SERET
UNR—8121%-2—
82
TYLER MOORETE SERET
★3—7215%-18—
18
BENJAMIN BRAHMERTE SERET
★3★46914%+40ROSE
41
RYLAN BARNESTE JURET
UNR—6811%——
6
ELI GREENWR SEPORTAL · NORTH DAKOTA STATE
UNR★3565%+30EMERGED
8
ISAIAH ALSTONWR SEPORTAL · ARMY
UNR★3544%+35EMERGED
7
TRIPP WALSHTE SERET
★2—454%——
11
DOMINIC OVERBYWR SONO SNAPS
★3—311%——
4
BRETT ESKILDSENWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★3291%—HELD
48
JACK BJORNTE SERET
UNR—140%——
86
ANDREW KELLERTE SORET
★3—90%——
17
KAI BLACKTE SORET
★3★390%—HELD
80
COOPER ALEXANDERTE SONO SNAPS
★3★370%—HELD
85
KEATON ROSKOPTE SONO SNAPS
★3—40%——
19
MICHAEL PARKESWR SORET
★3★300%—HELD
39
AJ PETERSENTE JURET
UNR—00%——
89
TY CLAIBORNEWR SERET
UNR—00%——
80
JONATHAN VANDE WALLEWR SORET
UNR—00%——
22
DILLON RANCKWR FRRET
UNR—00%——
44
WYATT ARCHERWR JURET
UNR—00%——
23
CARSON ROBBINSWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
47
CASH HAYDENTE SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
16
DANIEL JACKSONWR SERET
★3★300%+4HELD
▸OL53TAL76PERF53RET65n=7 · 3 METRICS · 21 OBS
▸DL53TAL69PERF53RET94n=9 · 7 METRICS · 47 OBS
▸LB52TAL56PERF52RET79n=8 · 10 METRICS · 43 OBS
▸DB66TAL71PERF66RET97n=9 · 6 METRICS · 46 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS19 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DOMINIC OVERBYHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
COOPER ALEXANDERHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
DAVID COFFEYHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
DONTRELL HOLTHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
WADE HELTONHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
BRETT ESKILDSENHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JACE J. GILBERTHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
CONNOR MOBERLYHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
MARCUS NEAL JR.HS RECRUITS★3UNR
KEATON ROSKOPHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN6 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ISAIAH ALSTONARMYWRUNR★3
JAYLON JACKSONEASTERN MICHIGANRB★3★3
JALEN TRAVISPRINCETONOT★3★3
KENARD SNYDERUL MONROEEDGE★3★3
ELI GREENNORTH DAKOTA STATEWRUNR★3
RYAN ROBINSON JR.LSUCBUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT25 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CARTEVIOUS NORTONCHARLOTTERB★3★3
DARRELL SIMMONS JR.KANSASOL★3★3
ELI SANDERSNEW MEXICORB★3★3
BLAKE THOMPSONLOUISIANA TECHDBUNR★3
TREYVEON MCGEECHARLOTTEDBUNR★3
GREG GAINES IIIRHODE ISLANDWR★4★3
JJ JEAN-LOUISNORTH TEXASLB★3★3
TERRELL CROSBY JR.TOLEDOWR★3★3
T.J. TAMPANFL DRAFT R4DB★3—
GERRY VAUGHNELIGIBILITY UPLB★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES52%4 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS19%6 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#53NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 23 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8551COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
721 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
134TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.5MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
13
19
35
37
30
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-9 TO +6 W
IMPROVED67 OF 134
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST76% BACK76th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG76% BACK76th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR65%65th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR98%98th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST97%97th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE