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HOME›TEAMS›JAMES MADISON›2024TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
SUN BELT|BOB CHESNEY|—RECORD9-4|CONF—
JAMES MADISON57 FPISBC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
13FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
55%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
45%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
+3IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1080 BC / 18
BC RATIO
9%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs9.1-2.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN+13.1
8 wins against a scoring profile describing 9.1. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE15
PERFORMANCE15
TALENT48
CONTINUITY55
DEFENSE75
PERFORMANCE75
TALENT48
CONTINUITY45
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
27MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
0 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31ACHARLOTTE—W 30-7531212+58BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 7HGARDNER-WEBB—W 13-6————NON-FBS OPPONENT
4SEP 21ANORTH CAROLINA—W 70-50856464+6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28HBALL STATE—W 63-71466+64BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5AUL MONROE—L 19-21699+61BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 10HCOASTAL CAROLINA—W 39-7342727+43BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19AGEORGIA SOUTHERN—L 14-28244444+26BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26HSOUTHERN MISS—W 32-153511+69BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 9HGEORGIA STATE—W 38-73488+62BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16AOLD DOMINION—W 35-3272929+41BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23AAPP STATE—L 20-34392626+44BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30HMARSHALL—L 33-35425757+13BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 18HWESTERN KENTUCKY—W 27-17234242+28BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB27TAL64PERF27RET100ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 9 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
14
ALONZA BARNETT IIIQB SERET
★3★38994%-6HELD
11
BILLY ATKINSQB JURET
UNR—325%-44—
1
JC EVANSQB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
5
DYLAN MORRISQB SEPORTAL · WASHINGTON
★4★300%-1FELL
10
BRETT GRIFFISQB JURET
★3★300%—HELD
15
BLAKE KENDALLQB JURET
UNR—00%——
▾RB54TAL65PERF54RET24ONE OWNERn=5 · 9 METRICS · 24 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
6
GEORGE PETTAWAYRB SEPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA
★4★39451%+19FELL
3
WAYNE KNIGHTRB SERET
UNR★37623%+30EMERGED
20
TYLER PURDYRB SEPORTAL · HOLY CROSS
UNR★36413%+24EMERGED
28
JOBI MALARYRB SEPORTAL · PORTLAND STATE
★2★2568%+35HELD
25
AYO ADEYIRB SEPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS
UNR★3404%+28EMERGED
4
KE'MARION BALDWINRB JURET
UNR★3161%—EMERGED
22
TRASHON DYERB SONO SNAPS
★3—60%——
▾WR/TE44TAL56PERF43RET42ONE OWNERn=8 · 8 METRICS · 40 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
OMARION DOLLISONWR SERET
★3★39631%+9HELD
6
CAM ROSSWR SEPORTAL · UCONN
★3★39429%-5HELD
17
TAYLOR THOMPSONTE SERET
★3★39350%+20HELD
8
YAMIR KNIGHTWR SERET
UNR★39127%+14EMERGED
89
JOSH PHIFERTE JURET
★3★37223%—HELD
18
LOGAN KYLETE SEPORTAL · VANDERBILT
★3★36215%-1HELD
15
KYI WRIGHTTE SERET
★3★35712%-35HELD
19
TAJI HUDSONWR JURET
★3★3576%-20HELD
88
DYLAN WILLIAMSWR SONO SNAPS
★3—565%-42—
10
BRIONNE PENNYWR SEPORTAL · SAN DIEGO STATE
★3★3352%-3HELD
0
MAXWELL MOSSWR JURET
UNR—201%——
81
GABRIEL HOLLINGSWORTHTE SERET
★3—171%——
2
JAYDEN MINESWR SERET
UNR—130%——
13
TROY LEWISWR JURET
★3—00%——
85
JORDAN FUNKTE SERET
★2—00%——
16
DESMOND GREENWR JURET
UNR—00%——
83
ERICK HARRISWR SORET
UNR—00%——
6
CHRIS LOFTONWR SERET
UNR★300%—EMERGED
85
RYDER POSTTE SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL48TAL35PERF48RET54n=7 · 3 METRICS · 21 OBS
▸DL65TAL52PERF65RET40n=9 · 8 METRICS · 56 OBS
▸LB64TAL68PERF64RET62n=5 · 10 METRICS · 35 OBS
▸DB54TAL37PERF54RET34n=10 · 6 METRICS · 50 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS11 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TYJAI HOPPERHS RECRUITS★3UNR
DYLAN WILLIAMSHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
MILT FERGUSONHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
TRASHON DYEHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
KJ FLOWEHS RECRUITS★3UNR
MARCELLUS NASHHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
JC EVANSHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
DEACON RAWLSHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
PHILLIP HARRISHS RECRUITS★3UNR
CHASE REGANHS RECRUITS★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN14 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
GEORGE PETTAWAYNORTH CAROLINARB★4★3
AYO ADEYINORTH TEXASRBUNR★3
JACOB DOBBSHOLY CROSSLB★2★3
NAKAI POOLEMISSISSIPPI STATEWR★3★3
DYLAN MORRISWASHINGTONQB★4★3
LLOYD SUMMERALLSOUTH FLORIDAEDGEUNR★3
RAYMOND SCOTTFRESNO STATELB★4★3
LOGAN KYLEVANDERBILTTE★3★3
CAM ROSSUCONNWR★3★3
ERIC O'NEILLLIU POSTDL★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT38 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TYLER STEPHENSINDIANAOLUNR★3
JAMES CARPENTERINDIANADLUNR★3
AIDEN FISHERINDIANALBUNR★3
D'ANGELO PONDSINDIANADB★3UNR
MIKAIL KAMARAINDIANADLUNR★3
CARTER MILLERUL MONROEOLUNR★3
ZACH HORTONINDIANATE★3★3
JAILIN WALKERINDIANALBUNR★3
JORDAN MCCLOUDTEXAS STATEQB★3★3
ELIJAH SARRATTINDIANAWRUNR★4
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES96%7 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS91%9 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#108NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 18 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8373COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2623 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
73TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
15
14
24
9
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +1.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +5 W
IMPROVED33 OF 73
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST6% BACK6th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG6% BACK6th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR54%54th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR100%100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST34%34th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE