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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
ACC|JEFF BROHM|—RECORD10-4|CONF—
LOUISVILLE#19 AP 23 FPIACC · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
80FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
50%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
60%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
+1IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#317 BC / 19
BC RATIO
26%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
10-3ACTUALvs9.7-3.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN+11.2
10 wins against a scoring profile describing 9.7. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE80
PERFORMANCE80
TALENT67
CONTINUITY50
DEFENSE92
PERFORMANCE92
TALENT62
CONTINUITY60
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE14 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
63MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 1AGEORGIA TECH—W 39-34745151+24BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 7HMURRAY STATE—W 56-0————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 16AINDIANA—W 21-14663131+44BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 23HBOSTON COLLEGE—W 56-28613838+37BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 29ANC STATE#21W 13-10737171+4BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 7HNOTRE DAME#14W 33-20939595-20BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 14APITTSBURGH—L 21-38723232+43BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 28HDUKE—W 23-0527878-3BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4HVIRGINIA TECH—W 34-3586666+9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 9HVIRGINIA—W 31-24532121+54BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18AMIAMI—W 38-31928080-5BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25HKENTUCKY—L 31-38788484-9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14DEC 2AFLORIDA STATE#6L 6-16869494-19BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 27AUSC—L 28-42957878-3BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB53TAL77PERF53RET1ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
13
JACK PLUMMERQB SEPORTAL · CALIFORNIA
★3★39597%+22HELD
19
BROCK DOMANNQB SERET
UNR—121%-9—
15
HARRISON BAILEYQB SEPORTAL · UNLV
★4★3121%-1FELL
15
PIERCE CLARKSONQB SONO SNAPS
★4★371%—FELL
12
BRADY ALLENQB JUPORTAL · PURDUE
★4★300%—FELL
6
EVAN CONLEYQB SERET
★3—00%+13—
18
SAM YOUNGQB JURET
UNR—00%——
14
SAM VAULTONQB JURET
UNR—00%——
▾RB73TAL68PERF73RET63ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 23 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
25
JAWHAR JORDANRB JURET
★3★39547%+23HELD
23
ISAAC GUERENDORB SEPORTAL · WISCONSIN
★3★38835%+26HELD
0
MAURICE TURNERRB SERET
★3★36816%+11HELD
5
KEYJUAN BROWNRB JUNO SNAPS
★3★3282%+38HELD
30
KADEN MOORMANRB FRTRUE FR
★3—141%——
21
MARIO AGYENRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
26
THANE MARTINRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE57TAL52PERF60RET55ROTATIONn=9 · 8 METRICS · 59 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
JAMARI THRASHWR JUPORTAL · GEORGIA STATE
★3★49427%+33ROSE
44
NATE KURISKYTE SERET
★3★38338%-13HELD
42
JOSH LIFSONTE SERET
★2—7732%-37—
0
CHRIS BELLWR SERET
★3—7616%+12—
7
JIMMY CALLOWAYWR SEPORTAL · TENNESSEE
★4★37315%-26FELL
24
AHMARI HUGGINS-BRUCEWR SERET
★3—7013%-1—
0
JADON THOMPSONWR SEPORTAL · CINCINNATI
★4★3639%-11FELL
84
JOEY GATEWOODTE SEPORTAL · UCF
★4★35712%+35FELL
45
DUANE MARTINTE SERET
★3—5410%——
9
JAMARI JOHNSONTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR★4497%—EMERGED
83
ALLAN HOUSTONWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—221%——
3
CATAURUS HICKSWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★3170%—HELD
47
JAEDON KINGWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—100%——
86
ELIJAH DOWNINGWR SORET
★3—100%——
12
WILLIAM FOWLESWR SONO SNAPS
★3★360%—HELD
82
GAGE REALETE SERET
UNR—50%——
3
KEVIN COLEMAN JR.WR SENO SNAPS
★4—00%——
44
TRAVIS EGANTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
36
JATAVIAN CHURCHILLWR JURET
UNR—00%——
1
JAHLIL MCCLAINWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
14
KRIS HUGHESWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
29
NATHAN SALZWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL59TAL69PERF59RET57n=6 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL80TAL59PERF80RET74n=10 · 8 METRICS · 59 OBS
▸LB66TAL64PERF66RET69n=5 · 10 METRICS · 30 OBS
▸DB67TAL62PERF67RET42n=8 · 8 METRICS · 45 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS15 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
T.J. CAPERSHS RECRUITEDGE★4UNR
AJ GREENHS RECRUITEDGE★4UNR
AARON WILLIAMSHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
MADDEN SANKERHS RECRUITIOL★4UNR
JAMARI JOHNSONHS RECRUITATH★4UNR
PIERCE CLARKSONHS RECRUITQB★4UNR
STANQUAN CLARKHS RECRUITLB★4UNR
LUKE BURGESSHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
WOO SPENCERHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
MICAH CARTERHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN10 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MARCUS WASHINGTONGEORGIACB★4★4
JAMARI THRASHGEORGIA STATEWR★3★4
MARQUIS GROVES-KILLEBREWTEXAS A&MCB★4★4
BRADY ALLENPURDUEQB★4★4
STORM DUCKPENN STATECB★3★3
CAM KELLYVIRGINIASUNR★3
DEVIN NEALBAYLORSUNR★3
KEVIN COLEMANJACKSON STATEWRUNR★3
KEITH BROWNOREGONLB★4★3
RODNEY MCGRAWPENN STATEEDGE★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT37 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MONTY MONTGOMERYOLE MISSLB★2★4
LUKE KANDRACINCINNATIOL★3★3
BRADEN SMITHCINCINNATIWRUNR★3
DORIAN JONESCINCINNATILB★3★3
FRANCIS SHERMANARKANSASTEUNR★3
K.J. CLOYDMIAMILBUNR★3
TREY COOLEYGEORGIA TECHRB★4★3
ZACH EDWARDSTROYDE★3★3
DEE WIGGINSCINCINNATIWR★3★3
NICARIO HARPERILLINOISDBUNR★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES53%7 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS85%13 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#31NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
7OF 19 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8921COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2524 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
68TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
14
11
19
16
8
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.3 TO +1.0 W
FULL RANGE-11 TO +7 W
IMPROVED24 OF 68
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST40% BACK40th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG40% BACK40th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR57%57th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR1%1th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST42%42th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE