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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
ACC|JEFF BROHM|—RECORD9-4|CONF—
LOUISVILLE12 FPIACC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
74FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
43%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
54%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-1IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#582 BC / 18
BC RATIO
27%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs8.9-3.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-4
AVG SCORING MARGIN+13.3
8 wins against a scoring profile describing 8.9. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE95
PERFORMANCE95
TALENT74
CONTINUITY43
DEFENSE72
PERFORMANCE72
TALENT63
CONTINUITY54
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
62MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
4 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31HAUSTIN PEAY—W 62-0————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 7HJACKSONVILLE STATE—W 49-1484545+40BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21HGEORGIA TECH—W 31-19675151+34BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28ANOTRE DAME#2L 24-31939595-10BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5HSMU#12L 27-34829292-7BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12AVIRGINIA—W 24-20563232+53BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19HMIAMI#18L 45-52919393-8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25ABOSTON COLLEGE—W 31-27584848+37BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 2ACLEMSON#14W 33-21978484+1BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16ASTANFORD—L 35-38702424+61BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23HPITTSBURGH—W 37-9696262+23BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30AKENTUCKY—W 41-14836666+19BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 31AWASHINGTON—W 35-34755757+28BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB70TAL73PERF70RET9ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 9 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
TYLER SHOUGHQB SEPORTAL · TEXAS TECH
★4★38991%+26FELL
15
HARRISON BAILEYQB SERET
★4★3418%+12FELL
15
PIERCE CLARKSONQB SORET
★4★3111%—FELL
8
DEUCE ADAMSQB SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
12
BRADY ALLENQB JURET
★4★300%—FELL
14
SAM VAULTONQB JURET
UNR—00%——
18
SAM YOUNGQB JURET
UNR—00%——
20
RYAN ZIMMERMANQB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB58TAL89PERF58RET19ONE OWNERn=5 · 9 METRICS · 25 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
ISAAC BROWNRB JUNO SNAPS
★3★49246%+35ROSE
20
DON CHANEYRB SENO SNAPS
★4—7218%-26—
26
DUKE WATSONRB JUNO SNAPS
★4★36916%+36FELL
5
KEYJUAN BROWNRB JURET
★3★36513%+25HELD
0
MAURICE TURNERRB SERET
★3★3496%+5HELD
43
SHAMMAI GATESRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE59TAL77PERF61RET47ONE OWNERn=8 · 8 METRICS · 48 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
0
CHRIS BELLWR SERET
★3—9731%+23—
1
JA'COREY BROOKSWR SEPORTAL · ALABAMA
★5★49731%+13FELL
83
MARK REDMANTE SEPORTAL · SAN DIEGO STATE
★4★49557%-18HELD
5
CAULLIN LACYWR SEPORTAL · SOUTH ALABAMA
★3★47112%+32ROSE
24
AHMARI HUGGINS-BRUCEWR SERET
★3—6710%+2—
9
JAMARI JOHNSONTE JURET
UNR★46417%+14EMERGED
3
CATAURUS HICKSWR JURET
★3★3648%-13HELD
44
NATE KURISKYTE SERET
★3★36216%+7HELD
45
DUANE MARTINTE SERET
★3—456%——
0
JADON THOMPSONWR SERET
★4★3443%-3FELL
14
KRIS HUGHESWR JURET
UNR—432%——
14
ANTONIO MEEKSWR SEPORTAL · TUSKEGEE
UNR★3352%—EMERGED
4
IZAYAH CUMMINGSTE SEPORTAL · KENTUCKY
★3★3322%+49HELD
18
JALEEL SKINNERTE SEPORTAL · MIAMI
★4★4292%+1HELD
47
JAEDON KINGWR JURET
UNR—231%——
7
JIMMY CALLOWAYWR SERET
★4★3150%-26FELL
87
DYLAN MESMANTE SONO SNAPS
★4—70%——
1
JAHLIL MCCLAINWR JURET
★3★370%—HELD
0
JOJO STONEWR SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
44
TRAVIS EGANTE JURET
UNR—00%——
90
HAMILTON ATKINSTE SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
89
SHAUN BOYKINS JR.WR FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
37
ANDERSON MITCHELLWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
39
TREY DURBINWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
44
ELI ADAMSWR SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
▸OL62TAL70PERF62RET48n=8 · 3 METRICS · 24 OBS
▸DL77TAL59PERF77RET55n=11 · 8 METRICS · 65 OBS
▸LB71TAL67PERF71RET84n=8 · 10 METRICS · 44 OBS
▸DB53TAL65PERF53RET39n=9 · 6 METRICS · 46 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS6 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DUKE WATSONHS RECRUITRB★4UNR
DYLAN MESMANHS RECRUITTE★4UNR
ISAAC BROWNHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
JOJO STONEHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
DEUCE ADAMSHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
XAVIER PORTERHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN19 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CAULLIN LACYSOUTH ALABAMAWR★3★4
JA'COREY BROOKSALABAMAWR★5★4
MARK REDMANSAN DIEGO STATETE★4★4
TAMARION MCDONALDTENNESSEES★3★4
JALEEL SKINNERMIAMITE★4★3
THOR GRIFFITHHARVARDDLUNR★3
JONATHAN MENDOZAYALEOT★3★3
TAHVEON NICHOLSONILLINOISCBUNR★3
DONALD CHANEY JR.MIAMIRBUNR★3
DAEH MCCULLOUGHOKLAHOMAS★4★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT49 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JAYLIN ALDERMANMIAMILB★3★3
JERMAYNE LOLETEXASDL★3★3
JEFF CLARKARIZONA STATEDL★2UNR
JOSHUA MINKINSCINCINNATIDB★3UNR
KAM WILSONCINCINNATIDL★3★3
TAWFIQ THOMASCOLORADODT★3★3
JOSHUA BLACKGEORGIA STATEOL★3★3
JOHN PAUL FLORESLIBERTYOLUNR★3
JACKSON HAMILTONGEORGIA TECHLB★3★3
RYHEEM CRAIGEAST CAROLINALB★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES85%11 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS64%10 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#58NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
2OF 18 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8709COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2829 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
74TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-2.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
16
24
15
12
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.8 W
FULL RANGE-8 TO +5 W
IMPROVED19 OF 74
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST17% BACK17th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG17% BACK17th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR48%48th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR9%9th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST39%39th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE