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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
ACC|JEFF BROHM|—RECORD9-4|CONF—
LOUISVILLE28 FPIACC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
64FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
58%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
52%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#680 BC / 17
BC RATIO
20%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
8-4ACTUALvs8.4-3.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN+9.1
8 wins against a scoring profile describing 8.4. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE67
PERFORMANCE67
TALENT75
CONTINUITY58
DEFENSE83
PERFORMANCE83
TALENT62
CONTINUITY52
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
59MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30HEASTERN KENTUCKY—W 51-17————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 5HJAMES MADISON#19W 28-1488181+1BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 20HBOWLING GREEN—W 40-17231717+65BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 27APITTSBURGH—W 34-27607474+8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4HVIRGINIA#16L 27-30557878+4BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 17AMIAMI#2W 24-21909494-12BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25HBOSTON COLLEGE—W 38-24502929+53BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1AVIRGINIA TECH—W 28-16722323+59BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8HCALIFORNIA—L 26-29744141+41BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 14HCLEMSON—L 19-20967676+6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22ASMU—L 6-38828484-2BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29HKENTUCKY—W 41-0815151+31BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 23HTOLEDO—W 27-22466565+17BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB47TAL88PERF47RET6ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
7
MILLER MOSSQB SEPORTAL · USC
★4★49092%+24HELD
8
DEUCE ADAMSQB SORET
★3★3416%—HELD
12
BRADY ALLENQB JURET
★4★3293%—FELL
20
RYAN ZIMMERMANQB SORET
UNR—00%——
17
TRAVIS EGANQB JURET
UNR—00%——
10
MASON MIMSQB FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
▾RB68TAL82PERF68RET89ROTATIONn=4 · 5 METRICS · 18 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
ISAAC BROWNRB JURET
★3★48432%+37ROSE
5
KEYJUAN BROWNRB JURET
★3★38332%+32HELD
26
DUKE WATSONRB JURET
★4★36716%+32FELL
32
BRAXTON JENNINGSRB FRTRUE FR
★3—579%+10—
6
JAMARICE WILDERRB FRTRUE FR
★3★3131%—HELD
43
SHAMMAI GATESRB FRRET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE55TAL73PERF59RET80ONE OWNERn=8 · 8 METRICS · 49 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
5
CAULLIN LACYWR SERET
★3★49630%+29ROSE
0
CHRIS BELLWR SERET
★3—9328%+24—
18
JALEEL SKINNERTE SERET
★4★48745%-1HELD
44
NATE KURISKYTE SERET
★3★38644%-2HELD
2
TREYSHUN HURRYWR SEPORTAL · SAN JOSÉ STATE
UNR★37313%+28EMERGED
14
ANTONIO MEEKSWR SERET
UNR★37213%-20EMERGED
3
DACARI COLLINSWR SEPORTAL · NC STATE
★4★36810%+17FELL
89
SHAUN BOYKINS JR.WR FRRET
★3★3568%—HELD
14
KRIS HUGHESWR JURET
UNR—534%+20—
86
JACOB STEWARTTE SEPORTAL · SAN JOSÉ STATE
UNR★3496%-1EMERGED
87
DYLAN MESMANTE SORET
★4—292%——
82
TERRENCE MCWILLIAMS JR.WR JUNO SNAPS
★3—281%——
90
HAMILTON ATKINSTE SORET
UNR—262%——
84
DAVON MITCHELLTE FRPORTAL · OKLAHOMA
★4★4121%—HELD
47
JAEDON KINGWR JURET
UNR—60%——
81
BOBBY GOLDENWR JUPORTAL · AKRON
★3★300%+2HELD
18
SAM YOUNGWR JURET
UNR—00%——
44
ELI ADAMSWR SORET
★3★300%—HELD
C.J. JACOBSENTE SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
83
GRANT HOUSERTE SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
80
BROCK COFFMANWR SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
42
EMMANUEL ULINFUNWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
49
DEVAUN JONESWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL59TAL72PERF59RET51n=6 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL64TAL66PERF64RET46n=8 · 8 METRICS · 50 OBS
▸LB53TAL75PERF53RET68n=6 · 10 METRICS · 44 OBS
▸DB68TAL52PERF68RET50n=7 · 8 METRICS · 35 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS11 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CJ MAYHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
MASON MIMSHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
KAMARE WILLIAMSHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
MICAH RICEHS RECRUITS★3UNR
CAMERON WHITEHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
CAMERON GORINHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
CALEB MATELAUHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
GRANT HOUSERHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
JAMARICE WILDERHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
GRADEY ANTHONYHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN14 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MILLER MOSSUSCQB★4★4
TREYSHUN HURRYSAN JOSÉ STATEWRUNR★3
JERRY LAWSONABILENE CHRISTIANDLUNR★3
MAHAMANE MOUSSAPURDUEIOL★3★3
KENDRICK GILBERTKENTUCKYDL★4★3
DACARI COLLINSNC STATEWR★4★3
CLEV LUBINCOASTAL CAROLINAEDGE★2★3
COREY GORDON JR.BAYLORSUNR★3
KALIB PERRYTENNESSEELB★3★3
DAVON MITCHELLOKLAHOMATE★4★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT46 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
AUSTIN COLLINSSYRACUSEOL★3★3
JARED DAWSONNOTRE DAMEDL★3★3
JAMARI JOHNSONOREGONTEUNR★4
CATAURUS HICKSPITTSBURGHWR★3★3
DEVIN NEALVIRGINIAS★3★3
WOO SPENCERSMUDL★3★3
MAURICE TURNERTULANERB★3★3
JADON THOMPSONMEMPHISWR★4★3
JOE CROCKERBAYLOROL★3★3
IZAYAH CUMMINGSAPP STATETE★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES70%7 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS65%11 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#68NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 17 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8597COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
3030 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKNEW
39TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
2
14
4
12
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.5 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-5 TO +8 W
IMPROVED19 OF 39
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST49% BACK49th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG49% BACK49th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR51%51th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR6%6th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST50%50th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE