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● LIVE|2024 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
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SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
SEC|BRIAN KELLY|—RECORD9-4|CONF—
LSU17 FPISEC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
94FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
80%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
71%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-17IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#720 BC / 28
BC RATIO
64%CLEARS
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs7.5-4.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN+5.6
8 wins against a scoring profile describing 7.5. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE95
PERFORMANCE95
TALENT84
CONTINUITY80
DEFENSE84
PERFORMANCE84
TALENT78
CONTINUITY71
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
78MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 1HUSC—L 20-27908383+6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 7HNICHOLLS—W 44-21————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 14ASOUTH CAROLINA#19W 36-33859090-1BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21HUCLA—W 34-17804444+45BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28HSOUTH ALABAMA—W 42-10325555+34BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12HOLE MISS#11W 29-26869999-10BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19AARKANSAS—W 34-10828383+6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26ATEXAS A&M—L 23-38969191-2BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 9HALABAMA#17L 13-421009898-9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16AFLORIDA—L 16-27928686+3BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23HVANDERBILT—W 24-17646262+27BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30HOKLAHOMA—W 37-17957676+13BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 31HBAYLOR—W 44-31697272+17BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB86TAL97PERF86RET99ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
18
GARRETT NUSSMEIERQB SERET
★4—9998%+14—
1
RICKIE COLLINSQB JURET
★4★4161%—HELD
17
AJ SWANNQB SEPORTAL · VANDERBILT
★4★391%-24FELL
16
COLIN HURLEYQB FRTRUE FR
★4★300%—FELL
▾RB69TAL52PERF69RET60ROTATIONn=3 · 9 METRICS · 23 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
27
JOSH WILLIAMSRB SERET
★2—9344%+11—
29
CADEN DURHAMRB JUNO SNAPS
★4★48937%+25HELD
5
KALEB JACKSONRB JURET
★3★36713%-6HELD
4
JU'JUAN JOHNSONRB JUNO SNAPS
★4★3353%—FELL
14
JOHN EMERY JR.RB SEPORTAL · LSU
★5★3312%-7FELL
43
TY'SON EDWARDSRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
30
MALACHI LANERB SERET
UNR—00%——
6
TREY HOLLYRB SORET
★4—00%+35—
24
JOSEPH EBUNRB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE62TAL83PERF64RET71ONE OWNERn=7 · 8 METRICS · 43 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
86
MASON TAYLORTE JURET
★3—10074%-6—
2
KYREN LACYWR SERET
★3—9930%+10—
1
AARON ANDERSONWR JURET
★4★49727%+15HELD
7
CJ DANIELSWR SEPORTAL · LIBERTY
★3★49122%+32ROSE
0
ZAVION THOMASWR SEPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE
★3★47011%+4ROSE
7
TREY'DEZ GREENTE JUNO SNAPS
★4—6114%-22—
3
CHRIS HILTON JR.WR SERET
★4—616%+29—
88
KA'MORREUN PIMPTONTE SERET
★4★45410%—HELD
6
SHELTON SAMPSON JR.WR JURET
★4★3462%—FELL
5
KYLE PARKERWR SERET
★4★3361%—FELL
45
GIVANNI PETERSONTE SERET
UNR—272%——
5
JAVEN NICHOLASWR SERET
UNR★3200%—EMERGED
13
JELANI WATKINSWR JUNO SNAPS
★4★370%—FELL
24
LANDON IBIETAWR SORET
★3★300%—HELD
49
GABE LEONARDSTE SERET
UNR—00%——
87
NOAH NASHWR SERET
UNR—00%——
26
COWINN HELAIREWR JURET
UNR—00%——
82
KYLAN BILLIOTWR SONO SNAPS
★4★300%—FELL
80
ISAIAH STONEWR SONO SNAPS
UNR★300%—EMERGED
81
LANDON CRAIGTE SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL70TAL86PERF70RET86n=6 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL74TAL85PERF74RET61n=11 · 8 METRICS · 50 OBS
▸LB71TAL91PERF71RET86n=6 · 10 METRICS · 32 OBS
▸DB59TAL66PERF59RET71n=10 · 8 METRICS · 48 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS21 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DOMINICK MCKINLEYHS RECRUITDL★5UNR
TREY'DEZ GREENHS RECRUITTE★4UNR
CADEN DURHAMHS RECRUITRB★4UNR
DASHAWN SPEARSHS RECRUITS★4UNR
WESTON DAVISHS RECRUITOT★4UNR
KYLAN BILLIOTHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
TYLEN SINGLETONHS RECRUITLB★4UNR
JELANI WATKINSHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
GABRIEL RELIFORDHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
CJ JACKSONHS RECRUITEDGE★4UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN4 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JARDIN GILBERTTEXAS A&MS★4★4
CJ DANIELSLIBERTYWR★3★4
ZAVION THOMASMISSISSIPPI STATEWR★3★4
AJ SWANNVANDERBILTQB★4★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT34 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
LOGAN DIGGSOLE MISSRB★3★4
DENVER HARRISUTSADB★4★3
LANCE HEARDTENNESSEEOL★5★4
RYAN YAITESCALIFORNIAS★4★3
LATERRANCE WELCHARIZONA STATEDB★4★3
DUCE CHESTNUTSYRACUSEDB★3★3
MARLON MARTINEZMISSISSIPPI STATEOL★3★3
CONNOR GILBREATHBOISE STATEOLUNR★3
JEREMIAH HUGHESMICHIGAN STATEDB★3★3
JAXON HOWARDMINNESOTADL★4★4
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES70%6 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS72%7 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#7NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
20OF 28 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.9095COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
926 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
68TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
14
11
19
16
8
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.3 TO +1.0 W
FULL RANGE-11 TO +7 W
IMPROVED24 OF 68
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST30% BACK30th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG30% BACK30th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR86%86th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR99%99th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST71%71th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE