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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SUN BELT|TONY GIBSON|—RECORD5-7|CONF—
MARSHALL90 FPISBC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
36FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
50%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
23%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-4IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1200 BC / 18
BC RATIO
11%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs6.1-5.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-4
AVG SCORING MARGIN+0.5
5 wins against a scoring profile describing 6.1. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE25
PERFORMANCE25
TALENT33
CONTINUITY50
DEFENSE37
PERFORMANCE37
TALENT48
CONTINUITY23
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
36MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30AGEORGIA#6L 7-451009696-59BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 6HMISSOURI STATE—L 20-2172121+16BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 13HEASTERN KENTUCKY—W 38-7————NON-FBS OPPONENT
4SEP 20AMIDDLE TENNESSEE—W 42-282077+30BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 27ALOUISIANA—L 51-54342323+14BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11HOLD DOMINION—W 48-24126464-27BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18HTEXAS STATE—W 40-37455353-16BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10OCT 30ACOASTAL CAROLINA—L 27-44421111+26BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8HJAMES MADISON#19L 23-3588181-44BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15AGEORGIA STATE—W 30-184522+35BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22AAPP STATE—L 24-26431919+18BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29HGEORGIA SOUTHERN—L 19-24332424+13BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB75TAL38PERF75RET0ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 10 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
7
CARLOS DEL RIO-WILSONQB SEPORTAL · SYRACUSE
★4★38077%+9FELL
1
ZION TURNERQB SEPORTAL · JACKSONVILLE STATE
★3★36017%-17HELD
16
JACQAI LONGQB JURET
★3★3386%—HELD
17
JACK CLOUGHERTYQB JUPORTAL · SOUTH DAKOTA
UNR★300%—EMERGED
19
CHASE MASSEYQB SORET
UNR—00%——
12
KOI FAGANQB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
▾RB31TAL69PERF31RET0ROTATIONn=4 · 5 METRICS · 18 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
44
ANTWAN ROBERTS JR.RB SERET
★3★37832%+18HELD
21
MICHAEL ALLENRB SENO SNAPS
★4★47427%+17HELD
6
JO'SHON BARBIERB SEPORTAL · MCNEESE
UNR★36922%-26EMERGED
6
JUSTIN WILLIAMS-THOMASRB SEPORTAL · CALIFORNIA
★4★35913%-13FELL
10
JUDAH PRICERB SONO SNAPS
UNR—293%-12—
24
TONY MATHIS JR.RB SEPORTAL · HOUSTON
★3★3273%-43HELD
21
ANTHONY QUINN JR.RB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
▾WR/TE48TAL24PERF49RET38ONE OWNERn=6 · 8 METRICS · 33 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
81
TOBY PAYNETE SERET
★2—9787%-7—
0
DE'ANDRE TAMAREZWR SEPORTAL · WESTERN CAROLINA
UNR—9028%+1—
4
DEMARCUS LACEYWR SEPORTAL · JACKSONVILLE STATE
★3★38726%+33HELD
2
ADRIAN NORTONWR SEPORTAL · AKRON
★3★38625%+18HELD
11
JAKOLBE BALDWINWR SEPORTAL · NC STATE
★3★3566%-59HELD
85
TRACY STEPHENSTE JURET
UNR—5411%——
5
XAYVION TURNER-BRADSHAWWR SEPORTAL · VIRGINIA TECH
★3★3545%+31HELD
10
BEN TURNERWR SEPORTAL · WEST LIBERTY
UNR★3514%—EMERGED
3
BRYAN ROBINSONWR SERET
★3—453%+4—
8
ANTONIO HARMONWR JUPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE
★4★3372%-54FELL
80
SHAWN ROUSETE JURET
UNR—292%——
15
ZAVIER SHORTWR JUPORTAL · APP STATE
★3★3201%—HELD
87
TONY MARTINWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
23
JUSTIN HAGGERTYWR JURET
UNR—00%——
38
K.J. JONESWR SORET
★3—00%——
14
SHERONE WHITE JR.WR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
83
RHETT MCGREWTE FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
16
JALYN ABERCROMBIEWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
84
NICO WEIDMANNWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
86
BRANDON HETTWERTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
89
ATLEY COWANWR SOPORTAL · INDIANAPOLIS
UNR—00%——
▸OL54TAL32PERF54RET78n=7 · 3 METRICS · 21 OBS
▸DL58TAL60PERF58RET22n=11 · 7 METRICS · 50 OBS
▸LB57TAL52PERF57RET3n=7 · 11 METRICS · 50 OBS
▸DB44TAL41PERF44RET34n=9 · 8 METRICS · 59 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS10 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
KOI FAGANHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
ANTHONY QUINN JR.HS RECRUITRB★3UNR
CAMRON NTIHS RECRUITS★3UNR
EAHJAY MCADAMSHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
SHERONE WHITE JR.HS RECRUITWR★3UNR
ANDREW DUDLEYHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
ELI KAUFMANHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
JAASAI SIMMONSHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
MEKHI LOCKHARTHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
JACK LAIRDHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN15 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JO'SHON BARBIEMCNEESERBUNR★3
SAMMY ETIENNEWEST VIRGINIAS★3★3
ZAH JACKSONWEST VIRGINIACB★3★3
TYLER MCDUFFIEHAMPTONOTUNR★3
JAVAE GILMOREMISSISSIPPI STATELB★3★3
CARLOS DEL RIO-WILSONSYRACUSEQB★4★3
LOUIKENZY JULESUNIVERSITY OF CHARLESTONCBUNR★3
MICHAEL ALLENUNLVRBUNR★3
DEMARCUS LACEYJACKSONVILLE STATEWR★3★3
JOSEPH AUZENNETEMPLEDLUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT53 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JADEN YATESOLE MISSLB★3★3
JACOBIE HENDERSONRUTGERSCB★3★3
JOSH MOTENSOUTHERN MISSCB★4★4
LANDYN WATSONKENTUCKYLB★3★3
AG MCGHEEARKANSAS STATES★3★3
CHRIS THOMASSYRACUSEDL★3UNR
AHMERE FOSTERSOUTHERN MISSS★3★3
IAN FOSTERSOUTHERN MISSSUNR★3
JABARI ISHMAELSOUTHERN MISSDL★4★3
CHRISTIAN FITZPATRICKOKLAHOMA STATEWR★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES100%12 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS87%11 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#120NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 18 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8314COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
4549 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKNEW
18TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
4
1
3
6
4
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.8 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-5 TO +7 W
IMPROVED10 OF 18
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST100% BACK100th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG100% BACK100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR78%78th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST34%34th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE