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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
MID-AMERICAN|CHUCK MARTIN|—RECORD7-7|CONF—
MIAMI (OH)89 FPIMAC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
37FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
67%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
78%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
+4IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#830 BC / 21
BC RATIO
6%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
7-6ACTUALvs7.5-5.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN+3.1
7 wins against a scoring profile describing 7.5. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE10
PERFORMANCE10
TALENT38
CONTINUITY67
DEFENSE46
PERFORMANCE46
TALENT44
CONTINUITY78
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE14 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
35MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
0 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 28AWISCONSIN—L 0-17803838+2BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 6ARUTGERS—L 17-45624747-7BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 20HUNLV—L 38-41645959-19BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 27HLINDENWOOD—W 38-0————NON-FBS OPPONENT
6OCT 4ANORTHERN ILLINOIS—W 25-14966+34BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11AAKRON—W 20-7251414+26BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18HEASTERN MICHIGAN—W 44-30321313+27BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25HWESTERN MICHIGAN—W 26-17244343-3BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 4AOHIO—L 20-2493939+1BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 12HTOLEDO—L 3-24466565-25BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 19ABUFFALO—W 37-20193030+10BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29HBALL STATE—W 45-241733+37BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
15DEC 6AWESTERN MICHIGAN—L 13-23244343-3BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 27AFRESNO STATE—L 3-18355151-11BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB43TAL47PERF43RET27ONE OWNERn=3 · 8 METRICS · 17 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
DEQUAN FINNQB SEPORTAL · BAYLOR
★3★37449%+22HELD
12
HENRY HESSONQB SERET
★3—6727%-44—
13
THOMAS GOTKOWSKIQB SORET
★3—6624%-22—
11
NOAH EHRLICHQB FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
19
JONAH KROENUNGQB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾RB47TAL47PERF47RET73ROTATIONn=4 · 5 METRICS · 13 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
6
JORDAN BRUNSONRB SERET
★3—8144%+8—
9
KENNY TRACYRB SERET
★3—6220%+29—
9
D'SHAWNTAE JONESRB SORET
★3—5916%+28—
21
TITO GLASS JR.RB FRRET
★3★3212%—HELD
▾WR/TE40TAL48PERF39RET63ONE OWNERn=7 · 7 METRICS · 46 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
11
COLE WEAVERWR JURET
UNR★39625%+10EMERGED
7
KAM PERRYWR SERET
★3★39423%+31HELD
0
KEITH REYNOLDSWR JUPORTAL · WASHINGTON
★3★39020%-25HELD
86
BRIAN SHANETE SERET
UNR—8576%+14—
4
DEION COLZIEWR SEPORTAL · NOTRE DAME
★4★37412%+30FELL
18
BRAYLON ISOMWR SORET
★3—7110%-44—
10
LYNEL BILLUPS-WILLIAMSWR JURET
★3—657%-60—
48
CHASE BECKERTE JURET
UNR—5518%——
2
BRADY SIMMONSWR SEPORTAL · INDIANA
UNR★2473%—EMERGED
44
GRANT LEEPERTE SOPORTAL · IOWA
★3★3324%—HELD
83
ERIC KARNERTE SOPORTAL · TEXAS A&M
★4★371%—FELL
16
RYAN SIMSWR SORET
★3—60%——
88
BRODY KOSINTE FRPORTAL · INDIANA
★3★300%—HELD
80
MICHAEL PARRISHWR JURET
UNR—00%——
18
ANTWON THOMASWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
3
DARION WILLIAMSONWR SEPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE
★3★300%+18HELD
5
CORDALE RUSSELLWR SOPORTAL · COLORADO
★4★400%—HELD
89
BRAYDEN BOEINGTE FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
81
BRENDAN LOFTUSTE FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
85
TREY ZVONARTE FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
28
ANDREW BJORSONWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
87
NOAM BUTBULTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
82
PAOLO PAPALIAWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
15
WILSON ROBERTSWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
20
IAN TEPASWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL31TAL29PERF31RET77n=7 · 3 METRICS · 20 OBS
▸DL45TAL31PERF45RET59n=9 · 7 METRICS · 43 OBS
▸LB63TAL53PERF63RET95n=9 · 11 METRICS · 57 OBS
▸DB44TAL49PERF44RET77n=8 · 8 METRICS · 50 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS16 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ADRIAN WALKER JR.HS RECRUITATH★3UNR
ANTHONY LUDINGTONHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
NOAH EHRLICHHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
CARMINE OROZCOHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
AARIZ TAYLORHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
LOGAN HOWELLHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
LUCAS BARNESHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
TREY ZVONARHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
JEROME SMITHHS RECRUITS★3UNR
ANTWON THOMASHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN9 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
KOY BEASLEYPURDUES★4★3
DEQUAN FINNBAYLORQB★3★3
BAI JOBEKANSASEDGE★4★3
JAMES SCHOTTMICHIGAN STATEEDGE★3★3
KEITH REYNOLDSWASHINGTONWR★3★3
DARION WILLIAMSONFLORIDA STATEWR★3★3
DEION COLZIENOTRE DAMEWR★4★3
AUSTIN UKESTANFORDIOL★3★3
KAM WILSONCINCINNATIEDGEUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT31 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
RAION STRADERAUBURNDBUNR★3
WILL JADOSTEXAS TECHOL★3★3
JAVON TRACYMINNESOTAWR★3★3
REGGIE VIRGILTEXAS TECHWR★3★4
DEVIN JOHNSONINDIANA STATEDB★3UNR
MATT SALOPEKELIGIBILITY UPLB★3—
BRIAN UGWUELIGIBILITY UPDL★3—
REID HOLSKEYELIGIBILITY UPOL★3—
TY WISEELIGIBILITY UPLB★3—
JOHN YOUNGELIGIBILITY UPOL★4—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES83%7 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS93%10 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#83NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 21 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8361COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1612 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKNEW
56TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
5
15
14
11
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-5 TO +6 W
IMPROVED25 OF 56
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST49% BACK49th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG49% BACK49th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR77%77th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR27%27th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST77%77th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE