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HOME›TEAMS›MICHIGAN STATE›2023TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
BIG TEN|HARLON BARNETT|—RECORD4-8|CONF—
MICHIGAN STATE81 FPIB1G · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
81FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
81%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
78%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-3IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#247 BC / 18
BC RATIO
24%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs2.4-9.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+1.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN-12.4
4 wins against a scoring profile describing 2.4. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE8
PERFORMANCE8
TALENT68
CONTINUITY81
DEFENSE41
PERFORMANCE41
TALENT70
CONTINUITY78
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
67MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
5 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 1HCENTRAL MICHIGAN—W 31-7955+29BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 9HRICHMOND—W 45-14————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 16HWASHINGTON#2L 7-41829191-57BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 23HMARYLAND—L 9-31698585-51BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 30AIOWA#24L 16-26716666-32BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 14ARUTGERS—L 24-27565959-25BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 21HMICHIGAN#1L 0-4991100100-66BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 28AMINNESOTA—L 12-27595353-19BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4HNEBRASKA—W 20-17855151-17BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11AOHIO STATE#10L 3-38999898-64BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18AINDIANA—W 24-21663131+3BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 24HPENN STATE#13L 0-42919797-63BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB29TAL58PERF29RET92ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 14 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
4
KATIN HOUSERQB SERET
★4★37252%-17FELL
1
NOAH KIMQB SERET
★3★36940%-12HELD
10
SAM LEAVITTQB JUNO SNAPS
★4★5377%—ROSE
18
ANDREW SCHORFHAARQB JURET
UNR—71%——
▾RB7TAL55PERF7RET46ROTATIONn=2 · 3 METRICS · 6 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
8
JAREN MANGHAMRB SEPORTAL · SOUTH FLORIDA
★4★35834%-4FELL
0
JALEN BERGERRB SERET
★4★35326%-24FELL
9
JORDON SIMMONSRB SERET
★3★33511%-48HELD
24
DAVION PRIMMRB SORET
★3★3287%—HELD
25
JOSEPH MARTINEZRB SERET
★2★2143%—HELD
3
JAELON BARBARINRB FRTRUE FR
★3★301%—HELD
5
NATHAN CARTERRB JUPORTAL · UCONN
★2★300%-14ROSE
26
CHRIS WILLIAMSRB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE45TAL67PERF42RET69ROTATIONn=10 · 8 METRICS · 54 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
3
MONTORIE FOSTER JR.WR SERET
★3—8827%+12—
6
MALIQ CARRTE SERET
★4★37837%+13FELL
0
TYRELL HENRYWR SERET
★3★37216%-34HELD
44
EVAN MORRISTE SERET
★3★37129%-47HELD
7
JARON GLOVERWR SERET
★3★37015%-2HELD
17
TRE MOSLEYWR SERET
★3—7015%-13—
16
CHRISTIAN FITZPATRICKWR SERET
★3★36914%-6HELD
19
JAYLAN FRANKLINTE SEPORTAL · WISCONSIN
★3★36319%-22HELD
1
ANTONIO GATES JR.WR SORET
★4★3588%-43FELL
17
ALANTE BROWNWR SEPORTAL · NEBRASKA
UNR★4536%-18EMERGED
82
BRENNAN PARACHEKTE JUNO SNAPS
★4—509%——
88
TYNEIL HOPPERTE SEPORTAL · BOISE STATE
★3★3395%+23HELD
84
JACK NICKELTE SERET
★3★3141%—HELD
15
MICHAEL MASUNASTE SERET
★3★380%—HELD
47
JACKSON MORSETE SERET
UNR—80%——
86
NICK HUNTERWR SERET
UNR—00%——
85
SEBASTIAN BROWNWR SERET
UNR★300%—EMERGED
80
ZACH GILLESPIEWR SERET
UNR—00%——
20
AUBREY DAWKINSWR JURET
UNR—00%——
83
ADEMOLA FALEYETE SEPORTAL · NORFOLK STATE
UNR★300%—EMERGED
81
AZIAH JOHNSONWR SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
24
JAELEN SMITHWR SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
22
JACK YANACHIKWR JUNO SNAPS
★2—00%——
85
GRANT CALCAGNOWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL36TAL68PERF36RET95n=8 · 3 METRICS · 22 OBS
▸DL54TAL75PERF54RET76n=12 · 7 METRICS · 55 OBS
▸LB52TAL73PERF52RET71n=5 · 10 METRICS · 31 OBS
▸DB49TAL66PERF49RET79n=9 · 6 METRICS · 42 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS16 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BAI JOBEHS RECRUITEDGE★4UNR
ANDREW DEPAEPEHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
JORDAN HALLHS RECRUITLB★4UNR
STANTON RAMILHS RECRUITOT★4UNR
JALEN THOMPSONHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
SAM LEAVITTHS RECRUITQB★4UNR
BRENNAN PARACHEKHS RECRUITTE★4UNR
COLE DELLINGERHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
CHANCE RUCKERHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
EDDIE PLEASANT IIIHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN9 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TUNMISE ADELEYETEXAS A&MDL★4★4
ADEMOLA FALEYENORFOLK STATETEUNR★3
JAREN MANGHAMSOUTH FLORIDARB★4★3
NATHAN CARTERUCONNRB★2★3
SEMAR MELVINWISCONSINCB★3★3
ALANTE BROWNNEBRASKAWRUNR★3
JARRETT JACKSONFLORIDA STATEDLUNR★3
TYNEIL HOPPERBOISE STATETE★3★3
JALEN SAMICOLORADODL★2★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT31 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
PAYTON THORNEAUBURNQB★3★3
KEON COLEMANFLORIDA STATEWR★4★4
DASHAUN MALLORYARIZONA STATEDL★3★3
MICHAEL FLETCHERAPP STATEDE★4★4
JALEN HUNTCINCINNATIDL★3★3
ELIJAH COLLINSOKLAHOMA STATERB★3★3
JEFF PIETROWSKI JR.WISCONSINLB★3UNR
GERMIE BERNARDWASHINGTONWR★4★4
CADE MCDONALDMIAMI (OH)WRUNRUNR
TATE HALLOCKWESTERN MICHIGANS★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES56%6 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS69%8 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#24NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
7OF 18 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8810COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1417 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
68TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
14
11
19
16
8
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.3 TO +1.0 W
FULL RANGE-11 TO +7 W
IMPROVED24 OF 68
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST25% BACK25th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG25% BACK25th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR95%95th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR92%92th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST79%79th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE