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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
BIG TEN|JONATHAN SMITH|—RECORD5-7|CONF—
MICHIGAN STATE84 FPIB1G · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
71FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
37%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
49%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-22IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#423 BC / 26
BC RATIO
20%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs4.0-8.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN-6.8
5 wins against a scoring profile describing 4.0. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE44
PERFORMANCE44
TALENT77
CONTINUITY37
DEFENSE67
PERFORMANCE67
TALENT71
CONTINUITY49
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
65MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
4 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30HFLORIDA ATLANTIC—W 16-10421616+17BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 7AMARYLAND—W 27-24643636-3BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 14HPRAIRIE VIEW A&M—W 40-0————NON-FBS OPPONENT
4SEP 21ABOSTON COLLEGE—L 19-23584848-15BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28HOHIO STATE#1L 7-3899100100-67BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4AOREGON#3L 10-31969999-66BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19HIOWA—W 32-20728989-56BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26AMICHIGAN—L 17-24898181-48BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 2HINDIANA#10L 10-47599292-59BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16AILLINOIS#16L 16-38557777-44BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22HPURDUE—W 24-17741010+23BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30HRUTGERS—L 14-41586969-36BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB50TAL92PERF50RET0ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 9 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
0
AIDAN CHILESQB SEPORTAL · OREGON STATE
★4★48591%+7HELD
10
TOMMY SCHUSTERQB SEPORTAL · NORTH DAKOTA
UNR★3429%+37EMERGED
11
ALESSIO MILIVOJEVICQB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
16
RYLAND JESSEEQB FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
18
ATTICUS CARRIDINEQB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB56TAL64PERF56RET1ONE OWNERn=1 · 9 METRICS · 9 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
15
KAY'RON LYNCH-ADAMSRB SEPORTAL · MASSACHUSETTS
★3★38891%-4HELD
7
BRANDON TULLISRB JUNO SNAPS
★3—203%——
25
MAKHI FRAZIERRB JUNO SNAPS
★3★3203%—HELD
25
JOSEPH MARTINEZRB SERET
★2★291%—HELD
44
JAY COYNEFB SERET
UNR—91%——
5
NATHAN CARTERRB JURET
★2★300%-25ROSE
33
JAXON MCCAIGRB SONO SNAPS
★2—00%——
20
SHAWN FOSTER IIRB JUNO SNAPS
★2★200%——
26
CHRIS WILLIAMSRB JURET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE55TAL79PERF54RET38ONE OWNERn=6 · 8 METRICS · 39 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
3
MONTORIE FOSTER JR.WR SERET
★3—9534%+7—
12
JACK VELLINGTE SEPORTAL · OREGON STATE
★3★49454%+34ROSE
11
NICK MARSHWR JUNO SNAPS
★4★48929%+22HELD
11
NICK MARSHWR JUNO SNAPS
★4★48929%+22HELD
82
BRENNAN PARACHEKTE JURET
★4—7425%-30—
81
AZIAH JOHNSONWR SORET
★3★37317%+20HELD
7
JARON GLOVERWR SERET
★3★36410%+11HELD
15
MICHAEL MASUNASTE SERET
★3★35410%—HELD
83
ADEMOLA FALEYETE SERET
UNR★3519%—EMERGED
24
JAELEN SMITHWR SORET
★3★3504%—HELD
17
ALANTE BROWNWR SERET
UNR★4372%-20EMERGED
1
ANTONIO GATES JR.WR SORET
★4★3352%-26FELL
88
TYNEIL HOPPERTE SERET
★3★3292%+25HELD
22
JACK YANACHIKWR JURET
★2—241%——
80
ZACH GILLESPIEWR SERET
UNR—201%——
84
WYATT HOOKTE SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
85
GRANT CALCAGNOWR SORET
UNR—00%——
16
AUSTIN CLAYWR SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
17
JAYLAN BROWNWR SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
48
CHARLIE BAKERTE SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
49
REEVES TAYLORTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
87
DYSON SIMSWR SONO SNAPS
★2★200%—HELD
▸OL32TAL76PERF32RET40n=5 · 3 METRICS · 15 OBS
▸DL59TAL76PERF59RET49n=10 · 8 METRICS · 51 OBS
▸LB56TAL74PERF56RET56n=5 · 10 METRICS · 38 OBS
▸DB53TAL66PERF53RET50n=8 · 8 METRICS · 44 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS11 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
NICK MARSHHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
RUSTIN YOUNGHS RECRUITOT★4UNR
BRADY PRETZLAFFHS RECRUITLB★4UNR
MERCER LUNIEWSKIHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
PAYTON STEWARTHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
JUSTIN DENSON JR.HS RECRUITCB★3UNR
ALESSIO MILIVOJEVICHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
JAYLEN THOMPSONHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
MIKESHUN BEELERHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
ANDREW BRINSON IVHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN14 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
AIDAN CHILESOREGON STATEQB★4★4
ANDREW DENNISILLINOISIOL★4★4
WAYNE MATTHEWS IIIOLD DOMINIONLB★3★4
JACK VELLINGOREGON STATETE★3★4
TOMMY SCHUSTERNORTH DAKOTAQBUNR★3
QUINDARIUS DUNNIGANMIDDLE TENNESSEEEDGE★2★3
TANNER MILLEROREGON STATEIOLUNR★3
D'QUAN DOUSEGEORGIA TECHDL★3★3
ED WOODSARIZONA STATECB★3★3
JORDAN TURNERWISCONSINLB★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT47 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
SPENCER BROWNOKLAHOMAOL★4★3
ZION YOUNGMISSOURIDE★3★3
KEVIN WIGENTON IIILLINOISOL★3★3
DERRICK HARMONOREGONDL★3★4
SIMEON BARROW JR.MIAMIDL★3★3
GENO VANDEMARKALABAMAOL★3★3
MALIQ CARRHOUSTONTE★4★3
KATIN HOUSEREAST CAROLINAQB★4★3
EVAN MORRISUCFTE★3★3
TYRELL HENRYWISCONSINWR★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES45%11 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS57%9 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#42NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
3OF 26 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8518COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2446 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
74TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-2.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
16
24
15
12
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.8 W
FULL RANGE-8 TO +5 W
IMPROVED19 OF 74
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST31% BACK31th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG31% BACK31th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR40%40th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST50%50th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE