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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
BIG TEN|JONATHAN SMITH|—RECORD4-8|CONF—
MICHIGAN STATE66 FPIB1G · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
73FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
54%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
62%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#571 BC / 20
BC RATIO
19%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs4.6-7.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN-5.3
4 wins against a scoring profile describing 4.6. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE56
PERFORMANCE56
TALENT68
CONTINUITY54
DEFENSE47
PERFORMANCE47
TALENT69
CONTINUITY62
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
65MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
4 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 29HWESTERN MICHIGAN—W 23-6244343-3BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 6HBOSTON COLLEGE—W 42-40502929+11BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 13HYOUNGSTOWN STATE—W 41-24————NON-FBS OPPONENT
4SEP 20AUSC#20L 31-45888989-49BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4ANEBRASKA—L 27-38866666-26BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11HUCLA—L 13-38822828+12BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18AINDIANA#1L 13-3848100100-60BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25HMICHIGAN#21L 20-31938282-42BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1AMINNESOTA—L 20-23714949-9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15HPENN STATE—L 10-28939090-50BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22AIOWA#17L 17-20709292-52BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29HMARYLAND—W 38-28634545-5BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB48TAL84PERF48RET100ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 16 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
0
AIDAN CHILESQB SERET
★4★47655%+4HELD
11
ALESSIO MILIVOJEVICQB SORET
★3—7345%+19—
16
RYLAND JESSEEQB FRRET
★3★300%—HELD
15
LEO HANNANQB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
▾RB39TAL75PERF39RET70ROTATIONn=3 · 5 METRICS · 15 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
25
MAKHI FRAZIERRB JURET
★3★38438%-33HELD
4
ELIJAH TAU-TOLLIVERRB SEPORTAL · SACRAMENTO STATE
UNR★37932%+18EMERGED
7
BRANDON TULLISRB JURET
★3—7829%-37—
44
JAY COYNEFB SERET
UNR—414%——
26
CHRIS WILLIAMSRB JURET
UNR—00%——
25
JACE CLARIZIORB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
28
ZION GISTRB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
33
JAXON MCCAIGRB SORET
★2—00%——
27
DARRIN JONES JR.RB FRTRUE FR
★2—00%——
▾WR/TE52TAL75PERF53RET60ONE OWNERn=7 · 8 METRICS · 38 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
12
JACK VELLINGTE SERET
★3★49659%+27ROSE
1
OMARI KELLYWR SEPORTAL · MIDDLE TENNESSEE
★4★39633%+14FELL
11
NICK MARSHWR JURET
★4★49633%+14HELD
13
CHRISHON MCCRAYWR SEPORTAL · KENT STATE
★2★28422%+23HELD
15
MICHAEL MASUNASTE SERET
★3★38133%+43HELD
3
RODNEY BULLARD JR.WR SEPORTAL · VALDOSTA STATE
UNR★3596%+6EMERGED
8
EVAN BOYDWR JUPORTAL · CENTRAL MICHIGAN
★3★3524%+6HELD
82
BRENNAN PARACHEKTE JURET
★4—312%-27—
31
JAYDEN SAVOURYTE FRTRUE FR
★3—221%——
88
KAI RIOSTE SEPORTAL · INDIANA STATE
UNR★3201%—EMERGED
14
BRYSON WILLIAMSWR FRTRUE FR
★3—201%——
19
CHARLES TAPLINWR FRTRUE FR
★3—140%——
17
ALANTE BROWNWR SERET
UNR★460%-14EMERGED
84
WYATT HOOKTE SORET
★3★300%—HELD
22
JACK YANACHIKWR JURET
★2—00%——
41
JAXSON WILSONTE JURET
★2—00%——
85
GRANT CALCAGNOWR SORET
UNR—00%——
17
BRAYLON COLLIERWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
18
ATTICUS CARRIDINEWR SORET
UNR—00%——
48
CHARLIE BAKERTE SORET
UNR—00%——
20
SHAWN FOSTER IIWR JURET
★2★200%——
89
NICK HARDYWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL36TAL61PERF36RET47n=8 · 3 METRICS · 22 OBS
▸DL48TAL67PERF48RET59n=10 · 8 METRICS · 50 OBS
▸LB44TAL84PERF44RET88n=7 · 11 METRICS · 39 OBS
▸DB61TAL62PERF61RET48n=12 · 8 METRICS · 49 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS14 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DERRICK SIMMONSHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
DEJAE WHITEHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
JACE CLARIZIOHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
AYDAN WESTHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
DEUCE EDWARDSHS RECRUITS★3UNR
BRAYLON COLLIERHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JAYDEN SAVOURYHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
DIMARI MALONEHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
LEO HANNANHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
DREW NICHOLSHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN11 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CONNER MOOREMONTANA STATEOTUNR★4
OMARI KELLYMIDDLE TENNESSEEWR★4★3
ELIJAH TAU-TOLLIVERSACRAMENTO STATERBUNR★3
JOSHUA EATONTEXAS STATECBUNR★3
DAVID SANTIAGOAIR FORCEEDGEUNR★3
ANELU LAFAELEWISCONSINEDGE★3★3
ANTHONY PINNACE IIIUTSACBUNR★3
MATT GULBINWAKE FORESTIOL★3★3
NIJHAY BURTEASTERN ILLINOISCBUNR★3
MALCOLM BELLUCONNCB★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT36 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CHARLES BRANTLEYMIAMICB★3★3
ANTHONY JONES JR.UCLAEDGE★3★3
AZIAH JOHNSONNORTH CAROLINAWR★3★3
KEN TALLEYARKANSASEDGE★4★3
ADEMOLA FALEYEWASHINGTON STATETEUNR★3
JAMES SCHOTTMIAMI (OH)DL★3★3
CALEB COLEYEASTERN MICHIGANDB★3★3
DILLON TATUMNORTHWESTERNDB★4★4
AARON ALEXANDERARKANSAS STATELB★3★3
AVERY DUNNTOLEDODL★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES69%7 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS56%9 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#57NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
1OF 20 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8605COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2323 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
134TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.5MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
13
19
35
37
30
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-9 TO +6 W
IMPROVED67 OF 134
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST71% BACK71th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG71% BACK71th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR47%47th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR100%100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST48%48th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE