SCOUTTEAM
● LIVE|2023 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
HOME›TEAMS›MISSISSIPPI STATE›2023TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
SEC|ZACH ARNETT|—RECORD5-7|CONF—
MISSISSIPPI STATE#9 AP 58 FPISEC · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
80FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
84%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
92%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-14IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#274 BC / 23
BC RATIO
32%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
5-7ACTUALvs4.6-7.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN-4.8
5 wins against a scoring profile describing 4.6. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE33
PERFORMANCE33
TALENT75
CONTINUITY84
DEFENSE83
PERFORMANCE83
TALENT70
CONTINUITY92
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
69MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2HSE LOUISIANA—W 48-7————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 9HARIZONA#11W 31-24708787-33BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 16HLSU#12L 14-41969292-38BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 23ASOUTH CAROLINA—L 30-37856262-8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 30HALABAMA#5L 17-401009595-41BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 7HWESTERN MICHIGAN—W 41-281999+45BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 21AARKANSAS—W 7-3775959-5BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 28AAUBURN—L 13-27887373-19BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4HKENTUCKY—L 3-24788484-30BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11ATEXAS A&M—L 10-51988989-35BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18HSOUTHERN MISS—W 41-20231313+41BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23HOLE MISS—L 7-17849292-38BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB44TAL65PERF44RET66ONE OWNERn=3 · 8 METRICS · 15 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
7
WILL ROGERSQB SERET
★3★47566%+28ROSE
11
MIKE WRIGHT JR.QB SENO SNAPS
★3★35925%-35HELD
3
CHRIS PARSONQB SONO SNAPS
★4★3409%-57FELL
12
ASHER MORGANQB JUNO SNAPS
★2—00%——
16
JAKE WEIRQB SERET
UNR—00%——
34
VIC SUTTONQB JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▾RB47TAL54PERF47RET44ROTATIONn=3 · 5 METRICS · 15 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
4
WOODY MARKSRB SERET
★4★48442%+7HELD
0
JEFFERY PITTMANRB JUNO SNAPS
UNR★37429%-6EMERGED
23
SETH DAVISRB JUNO SNAPS
★3★36924%+27HELD
2
KEYVONE LEERB SEPORTAL · PENN STATE
★4★3333%-14FELL
22
SIMEON PRICERB SERET
★3★3212%+15HELD
27
JA'VARIS BUFFORDRB JURET
UNR—00%——
21
BRINSTON WILLIAMSRB SERET
★4—00%——
32
WYKECE JOHNSONRB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE52TAL82PERF52RET73ONE OWNERn=7 · 7 METRICS · 43 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
5
LIDEATRICK GRIFFINWR SEPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE
★4★48722%+12HELD
0
ZAVION THOMASWR SEPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE
★3★48220%+12ROSE
2
JUSTIN ROBINSONWR SERET
★4★37817%-12FELL
8
ANTONIO HARMONWR JURET
★4★37315%-53FELL
86
RYLAND GOEDETE SEPORTAL · GEORGIA
★4★36897%-63FELL
19
FREDDIE ROBERSONWR SEPORTAL · EASTERN WASHINGTON
★3★3629%+18HELD
2
CREED WHITTEMOREWR SENO SNAPS
★4★3618%-22FELL
9
JORDAN MOSLEYWR SERET
★4★4556%-41HELD
11
JADEN WALLEYWR SERET
★3—453%-15—
86
NICK LAUDERDALETE SERET
UNR—143%——
36
JACOBY BELLAZARWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR★300%—EMERGED
19
RAY LOTTENTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR★200%—EMERGED
8
GEOR'QUARIUS SPIVEYTE SEPORTAL · TCU
★3★300%+49HELD
24
JACARIUS CLAYTONTE SERET
★4★300%—FELL
8
SEYDOU TRAORETE SEPORTAL · COLORADO
UNR★400%+37EMERGED
80
KADE KOLKAWR SERET
UNR—00%——
87
NAKAI POOLEWR FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
24
GRANT EVANSWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL55TAL75PERF55RET85n=6 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL58TAL80PERF58RET90n=6 · 7 METRICS · 35 OBS
▸LB70TAL61PERF70RET99n=7 · 11 METRICS · 47 OBS
▸DB54TAL71PERF54RET89n=9 · 8 METRICS · 44 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS17 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ISAAC SMITHHS RECRUITS★4UNR
CREED WHITTEMOREHS RECRUITATH★4UNR
KELLEY JONESHS RECRUITS★4UNR
CHRIS PARSONHS RECRUITQB★4UNR
BRICE POLLOCKHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
TY JONESHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
JONATHAN DAVISHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
ZAY ALEXANDERHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
CALEB BRYANTHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
AMARI SMITHHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN8 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
SEYDOU TRAORECOLORADOTEUNR★4
KEYVONE LEEPENN STATERB★4★3
FREDDIE ROBERSONEASTERN WASHINGTONWR★3★3
KHAMAURI ROGERSMIAMICB★4★3
RAYDARIOUS JONESLSUCB★4★3
RYLAND GOEDEGEORGIATE★4★3
JA'KOBI ALBERTKENTUCKYATHUNR★3
GEOR'QUARIUS SPIVEYTCUTE★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT27 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
RARA THOMASGEORGIAWR★4★3
DILLON JOHNSONWASHINGTONRB★3★4
JEVON BANKSKANSAS STATEDL★3★3
DYLAN LAWRENCESOUTHERN MISSS★3★3
SAWYER ROBERTSONBAYLORQB★4★3
KAYDIN POPENEW MEXICOWR★3★3
LAQUINSTON SHARPELIGIBILITY UPOLUNR—
COLLIN DUNCANELIGIBILITY UPS★3—
TYRUS WHEATELIGIBILITY UPLB★3—
JACKIE MATTHEWSELIGIBILITY UPS★4—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES50%6 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS69%12 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#27NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
4OF 23 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8744COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1125 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKRETURNS
28TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-2.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
4
11
6
3
4
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.3 W
FULL RANGE-5 TO +4 W
IMPROVED7 OF 28
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST72% BACK72th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG72% BACK72th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR85%85th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR66%66th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST89%89th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE