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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
SEC|JEFF LEBBY|—RECORD2-10|CONF—
MISSISSIPPI STATE67 FPISEC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
76FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
22%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
62%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-9IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#286 BC / 19
BC RATIO
34%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
2-10ACTUALvs4.1-7.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-2.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN-8.3
2 wins against a scoring profile describing 4.1. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE80
PERFORMANCE80
TALENT76
CONTINUITY22
DEFENSE42
PERFORMANCE42
TALENT70
CONTINUITY62
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
77MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
6 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31HEASTERN KENTUCKY—W 56-7————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 7AARIZONA STATE#7L 23-30797474-39BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 14HTOLEDO—L 17-41374141-6BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21HFLORIDA—L 28-45928686-51BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28ATEXAS#4L 13-35989595-60BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12AGEORGIA#6L 31-41999696-61BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19HTEXAS A&M—L 24-34969191-56BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26HARKANSAS—L 25-58828383-48BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 2HMASSACHUSETTS—W 45-204144+31BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 9ATENNESSEE#9L 14-33889494-59BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23HMISSOURI#22L 20-39878686-51BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29AOLE MISS#11L 14-26869999-64BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB36TAL68PERF36RET0ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 15 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
3
MICHAEL VAN BUREN JR.QB JUNO SNAPS
★4★37869%-2FELL
2
BLAKE SHAPENQB SEPORTAL · BAYLOR
★3★36630%+23HELD
3
CHRIS PARSONQB SORET
★4★340%-59FELL
16
JAKE WEIRQB SERET
UNR—00%——
▾RB60TAL73PERF60RET11ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 17 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
6
DAVON BOOTHRB SEPORTAL · UTAH STATE
★3★39149%+18HELD
6
JOHNNIE DANIELSRB SENO SNAPS
UNR★38537%-7EMERGED
2
KEYVONE LEERB SERET
★4★35911%-16FELL
5
XAVIER GAYTENRB JUNO SNAPS
★4—303%——
22
BRINSTON WILLIAMSRB SERET
★4—00%——
23
SETH DAVISRB JURET
★3★300%+27HELD
27
JA'VARIS BUFFORDRB JURET
UNR—00%——
38
ASHTANYREIN DUNCANRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
0
JEFFERY PITTMANRB JURET
UNR★300%-6EMERGED
32
WYKECE JOHNSONRB JURET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE62TAL89PERF63RET19ONE OWNERn=7 · 8 METRICS · 42 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
3
KEVIN COLEMAN JR.WR SENO SNAPS
★4—9732%+28—
8
SEYDOU TRAORETE SERET
UNR★49165%+28EMERGED
9
JORDAN MOSLEYWR SERET
★4★48623%+27HELD
1
KELLY AKHARAIYIWR SEPORTAL · UTEP
UNR★38119%+31EMERGED
1
MARIO CRAVERWR JUNO SNAPS
★4★47717%+33HELD
84
JUSTIN BALLTE SEPORTAL · VANDERBILT
★3★37234%-34HELD
2
CREED WHITTEMOREWR SERET
★4★3534%-5FELL
11
JADEN WALLEYWR SERET
★3—402%-15—
11
RICKY JOHNSONWR SONO SNAPS
★3★3271%—HELD
10
CAM BALLTE SEPORTAL · BUFFALO
★3★3212%-42HELD
13
SANFRISCO MAGEEWR SONO SNAPS
★3—201%——
1
TRENT HUDSONWR SEPORTAL · NEW MEXICO STATE
UNR★3181%+32EMERGED
80
KADE KOLKAWR SERET
UNR—150%——
5
STONKA BURNSIDEWR SONO SNAPS
★4★300%—FELL
86
NICK LAUDERDALETE SERET
UNR—00%——
8
ANTONIO HARMONWR JURET
★4★300%-53FELL
88
JACOREY WHITTEDTE JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
4
JJ HARRELLWR SONO SNAPS
★4★300%—FELL
19
RAY LOTTENTE JURET
UNR★200%—EMERGED
42
SAM PAXTONTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
85
THOMAS CHEATHAMWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
87
LOGAN FLINTAWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
84
SEMAJ PARKERTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR★200%—EMERGED
81
JOSHUA WASHINGTONTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL47TAL66PERF47RET22n=6 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL34TAL61PERF34RET51n=10 · 8 METRICS · 55 OBS
▸LB34TAL72PERF34RET51n=6 · 11 METRICS · 40 OBS
▸DB55TAL74PERF55RET66n=8 · 8 METRICS · 43 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS16 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JJ HARRELLHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
STONKA BURNSIDEHS RECRUITATH★4UNR
MICHAEL VAN BUREN JR.HS RECRUITQB★4UNR
MARIO CRAVERHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
JIMOTHY LEWIS JR.HS RECRUITOT★4UNR
XAVIER GAYTENHS RECRUITRB★4UNR
TERRANCE HIBBLER JR.HS RECRUITDL★3UNR
JACOREY WHITTEDHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
JOSAIAH KNIGHTHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
SANFRISCO MAGEEHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN9 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CAMERON BALLBUFFALOTE★3★4
DAVON BOOTHUTAH STATERB★3★3
ETHAN MINERNORTH TEXASIOL★2★3
STONE BLANTONSOUTH CAROLINALB★4★3
KEVIN COLEMANLOUISVILLEWRUNR★3
KELLY AKHARAIYIUTEPWRUNR★3
JUSTIN BALLVANDERBILTTE★3★3
BLAKE SHAPENBAYLORQB★3★3
MAKYLAN POUNDERSMEMPHISOTUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT30 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DECARLOS NICHOLSONUSCCBUNR★3
WILL ROGERSWASHINGTONQB★3★4
ZAVION THOMASLSUWR★3★4
JUSTIN ROBINSONWEST VIRGINIAWR★4★3
WOODY MARKSUSCRB★4★4
RYLAND GOEDEGEORGIA TECHTE★4★3
MIKE WRIGHT JR.NORTHWESTERNQB★3★3
KHALID MOORESOUTHERN MISSDL★3★3
SIMEON PRICECOASTAL CAROLINARB★3★3
JACOBY BELLAZARGRAMBLINGWRUNR★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES65%6 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS74%8 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#28NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
6OF 19 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8806COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1827 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
68TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
14
11
19
16
8
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.3 TO +1.0 W
FULL RANGE-11 TO +7 W
IMPROVED24 OF 68
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST22% BACK22th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG22% BACK22th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR22%22th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST66%66th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE