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SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
ACC|DAVE DOEREN|—RECORD8-5|CONF—
NC STATE46 FPIACC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
68FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
76%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
40%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-1IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#343 BC / 23
BC RATIO
23%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs6.3-5.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN+1.3
7 wins against a scoring profile describing 6.3. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE90
PERFORMANCE90
TALENT74
CONTINUITY76
DEFENSE61
PERFORMANCE61
TALENT70
CONTINUITY40
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
68MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 28HEAST CAROLINA—W 24-17447373-13BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 6HVIRGINIA#16W 35-31557878-18BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 11AWAKE FOREST—W 34-24476262-2BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 20ADUKE—L 33-45586868-8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 27HVIRGINIA TECH—L 21-23722323+37BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4HCAMPBELL—W 56-10————NON-FBS OPPONENT
7OCT 11ANOTRE DAME#10L 7-36949797-37BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25APITTSBURGH—L 34-53607474-14BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1HGEORGIA TECH—W 48-36727575-15BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15AMIAMI#2L 7-41909494-34BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 21HFLORIDA STATE—W 21-11877070-10BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29HNORTH CAROLINA—W 42-19783333+27BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 19HMEMPHIS—W 31-7587272-12BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB68TAL85PERF68RET99ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 11 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
11
CJ BAILEYQB JURET
★4—9697%+31—
2
LEX THOMASQB SORET
★3★3201%—HELD
10
WILL WILSONQB SONO SNAPS
★3—201%——
13
ETHAN RHODESQB SERET
UNR—00%——
19
COLE WILSONQB SERET
UNR—00%——
15
HUDSON WILHARMQB JUPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA
UNR—00%——
▾RB66TAL91PERF66RET99ONE OWNERn=2 · 9 METRICS · 18 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
2
HOLLYWOOD SMOTHERSRB JURET
★4★49657%+25HELD
1
JAYDEN SCOTTRB JURET
★3—8738%+13—
31
COLESON FIELDSRB SORET
UNR—383%-63—
25
DARIUS JOHNSONRB SERET
★2—201%——
20
DEANDRE DESINORRB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
26
ISIAH JONESRB JURET
★3—00%——
▾WR/TE63TAL79PERF61RET85ONE OWNERn=7 · 8 METRICS · 38 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
7
JUSTIN JOLYTE SERET
★2★49348%+26ROSE
5
NOAH ROGERSWR SERET
★4★49026%+2HELD
8
KEENAN JACKSONWR JURET
★3—8926%-37—
9
TERRELL ANDERSONWR JURET
★4★48623%+18HELD
6
WESLEY GRIMESWR SERET
★4★38221%+9FELL
44
CODY HARDYTE SEPORTAL · ELON
UNR★37726%—EMERGED
87
DANTE DANIELSTE SERET
UNR—6920%+20—
19
PRESTON DOUGLASTE SONO SNAPS
★3—444%——
80
ETHAN DOWDYWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—281%——
6
ASHTON LOCKLEARWR SERET
UNR—271%——
4
TANK BOSTONWR SORET
★3★3231%—HELD
44
GRIFFIN REIMERTE SONO SNAPS
UNR—191%——
87
IAN FLYNTTE JUPORTAL · NEBRASKA
★3★370%—HELD
37
ADDISON CARLSONWR JURET
UNR—00%——
17
CHRISTIAN ZACHARYWR JURET
★3★300%—HELD
88
JAYDEN HOLLARWR FRRET
UNR—00%——
44
GUS RITCHEYTE SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
12
TEDDY HOFFMANNWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%-47—
14
JONATHAN PAYLORWR JURET
★4—00%——
84
JE'REL BOLDERWR SONO SNAPS
★4—00%——
36
CAMERON CORNTHWAITEWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
28
SAM DODDWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL64TAL68PERF64RET51n=7 · 3 METRICS · 21 OBS
▸DL49TAL69PERF49RET48n=8 · 8 METRICS · 40 OBS
▸LB50TAL64PERF50RET49n=6 · 11 METRICS · 44 OBS
▸DB50TAL75PERF50RET29n=10 · 6 METRICS · 54 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS18 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
SPIKE SOWELLS JR.HS RECRUITIOL★4UNR
JE'REL BOLDERHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
TK WHITSETHS RECRUITOT★4UNR
DEANDRE DESINORHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
WILL WILSONHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
COLBY CRONKHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
MICHAEL GIBBSHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
CAM STRONGHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
LACORIAN HODGEHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
GERRITT KEMPHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN7 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BRIAN NELSON IINORTH TEXASCB★3★3
JOSEPH ADEDIRETEXAS TECHEDGE★3★3
STERLING DIXONALABAMALB★4★3
JAREN SENSABAUGHMISSOURICB★3★3
TRA THOMASTEMPLEEDGEUNR★3
SABASTIAN HARSHWYOMINGEDGEUNR★3
CIAN SLONEUTAH STATEEDGEUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT32 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BISHOP FITZGERALDUSCSUNR★3
TAMARCUS COOLEYLSUS★3★4
KAMAL BONNERMIAMILB★3★3
BRANDON CISSESOUTH CAROLINADB★3★4
KC CONCEPCIONTEXAS A&MWR★3★4
DACARI COLLINSLOUISVILLEWR★4★3
KENDRICK RAPHAELCALIFORNIARB★3★4
DJ JACKSONLIBERTYDL★3★3
RED HIBBLERMISSISSIPPI STATEDLUNRUNR
JAYLAND PARKERMARSHALLLB★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES52%5 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS41%6 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#34NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
3OF 23 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8704COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1819 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
134TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.5MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
13
19
35
37
30
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-9 TO +6 W
IMPROVED67 OF 134
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST90% BACK90th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG90% BACK90th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR51%51th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR98%98th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST29%29th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE