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SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
MOUNTAIN WEST|KEN WILSON|—RECORD2-10|CONF—
NEVADA128 FPIMWC · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
28FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
65%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
71%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1070 BC / 15
BC RATIO
7%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
2-10ACTUALvs2.1-9.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN-16.1
2 wins against a scoring profile describing 2.1. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE1
PERFORMANCE1
TALENT50
CONTINUITY65
DEFENSE23
PERFORMANCE23
TALENT40
CONTINUITY71
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
40MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2AUSC—L 14-66957878-77BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 9HIDAHO—L 6-33————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 16HKANSAS#23L 24-31558282-81BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 23ATEXAS STATE—L 24-35324747-46BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 30AFRESNO STATE—L 9-27445555-54BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 14HUNLV—L 27-45145555-54BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 21ASAN DIEGO STATE—W 6-0262222-21BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 28HNEW MEXICO—W 34-241577-6BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4HHAWAI'I—L 14-272088-7BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11AUTAH STATE—L 24-41252020-19BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18ACOLORADO STATE—L 20-30222727-26BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25HWYOMING—L 6-42114242-41BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB57TAL59PERF57RET8ONE OWNERn=3 · 7 METRICS · 14 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
2
BRENDON LEWISQB SEPORTAL · COLORADO
★3★37866%-27HELD
10
AJ BIANCOQB SERET
★3—6125%+2—
16
SHANE ILLINGWORTHQB JURET
★4★3418%-22FELL
17
BAYLOR HORNINGQB SERET
UNR—00%——
12
JAX LEATHERWOODQB FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
19
LOGAN HOWRENQB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾RB9TAL76PERF9RET5ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 15 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
4
SEAN DOLLARSRB SEPORTAL · OREGON
★4★39466%-12FELL
23
JACQUES BADOLATO-BIRDSELLRB SORET
★3★36115%-54HELD
26
ASHTON HAYESRB JUPORTAL · CALIFORNIA
★3★35813%-48HELD
CROSS PATTONRB SERET
UNR—415%-58—
33
CONNER NOAHRB FRTRUE FR
★3★391%—HELD
22
JESHUA FIXELRB SERET
UNR—00%——
32
WESLEY KOMMERRB JURET
UNR—00%-53—
▾WR/TE31TAL50PERF30RET67ONE OWNERn=7 · 7 METRICS · 49 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
15
DALEVON CAMPBELLWR SERET
★3★39024%+26HELD
14
SPENCER CURTISWR SERET
★2—8622%-23—
85
KELEKI LATUTE SEPORTAL · CALIFORNIA
★3★38148%-16HELD
20
JAMAAL BELLWR SERET
★3★37917%-26HELD
85
CAMERON ZEIDLERTE SORET
UNR—7439%-27—
1
ISAAH CROCKERWR SENO SNAPS
★4★46611%-53HELD
82
JAYDEN O'ROURKETE SENO SNAPS
UNR—5111%——
9
MARSHAUN BROWNWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—362%——
19
KOLA BABALOLATE SERET
★3—321%——
12
NATE BURLESON IIWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—241%——
87
OLIVER STUARTTE SONO SNAPS
UNR—212%——
84
JEREMIAH GRADOWITZWR JURET
UNR—130%——
88
ROSS NICKSONWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—60%——
11
CARLOS SANDYWR SERET
★3—00%——
14
JOHN JACKSON IIIWR SEPORTAL · USC
★3★300%-57HELD
83
AARON SMITHWR JURET
★3—00%——
88
TYLER CLARKWR FRRET
★4—00%——
28
TERRELL JOHNSONTE SERET
★2—00%——
14
GERICK ROBINSONWR SEPORTAL · COLORADO STATE
★3★300%—HELD
47
COOPER SHULTSTE SERET
UNR—00%——
47
RORY MORGANTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
7
MARQUIS ASHLEYWR SERET
★3—00%——
86
DYSON FRANKTE SORET
UNR—00%——
▸OL27TAL47PERF27RET75n=8 · 3 METRICS · 19 OBS
▸DL39TAL40PERF39RET65n=8 · 8 METRICS · 39 OBS
▸LB27TAL47PERF28RET75n=7 · 11 METRICS · 47 OBS
▸DB39TAL36PERF39RET68n=11 · 8 METRICS · 52 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS12 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JONAH LEWISHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
JAX LEATHERWOODHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
RJ ESMONHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
TYSON RUFFINSHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
EJ SMITHHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
JOURNEY MCKOYHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
AMINI AMONEHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
MARSHAUN BROWNHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JOSIAH TIMOTEOHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
HEZEKIAH ANAHU-AMBROSIOHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN13 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
SEAN DOLLARSOREGONRB★4★3
BRENDON LEWISCOLORADOQB★3★3
ADRIAN JACKSONOREGONLBUNR★4
PEYTON DIXONNEW MEXICORBUNR★3
TRE WEEDEASTERN WASHINGTONS★3★3
JACKSON LADUKEOREGONLB★3★3
KELEKI LATUCALIFORNIATE★3★3
ASHTON HAYESCALIFORNIARB★3★3
GERICK ROBINSONCOLORADO STATEATH★3★3
JOHN JACKSON IIIUSCWR★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT27 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
GRANT STARCKOREGON STATEOL★3★3
MAURICE WILMERUCONNLB★3UNR
CARLTON BROWN IIICAL POLYTE★3UNR
VICTOR SNOWBUFFALOWRUNR★3
BENTLEE SANDERSELIGIBILITY UPDB★3—
TYSON WILLIAMSELIGIBILITY UPDB★3—
TYRIQ MACKELIGIBILITY UPDB★2—
DOM PETERSONELIGIBILITY UPDTUNR—
TOA TAUAELIGIBILITY UPRB★3—
BJ CASTEELELIGIBILITY UPWR★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES85%4 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS56%8 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#107NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 15 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8320COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1313 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
63TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
14
23
8
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +5 W
IMPROVED15 OF 63
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST33% BACK33th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG33% BACK33th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR75%75th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR8%8th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST68%68th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE