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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
MOUNTAIN WEST|JEFF CHOATE|—RECORD3-10|CONF—
NEVADA103 FPIMWC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
23FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
56%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
62%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-1IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1270 BC / 17
BC RATIO
8%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
3-10ACTUALvs4.8-8.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-1.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-6
AVG SCORING MARGIN-5.7
3 wins against a scoring profile describing 4.8. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE59
PERFORMANCE59
TALENT48
CONTINUITY56
DEFENSE13
PERFORMANCE13
TALENT58
CONTINUITY62
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
47MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 24HSMU#12L 24-29829292-79BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
1AUG 31ATROY—W 28-26182929-16BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 7HGEORGIA SOUTHERN—L 17-20244444-31BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 14AMINNESOTA—L 0-27688080-67BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21HEASTERN WASHINGTON—W 49-16————NON-FBS OPPONENT
6OCT 5ASAN JOSÉ STATE—L 31-35163232-19BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12HOREGON STATE—W 42-37472828-15BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18HFRESNO STATE—L 21-24363737-24BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26AHAWAI'I—L 13-34222020-7BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 2HCOLORADO STATE—L 21-38303030-17BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 9ABOISE STATE#8L 21-28457979-66BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23HAIR FORCE—L 19-2211717-4BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30AUNLV#23L 14-38397474-61BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB70TAL64PERF70RET93ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 9 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
2
BRENDON LEWISQB SERET
★3★38587%+2HELD
13
CHUBBA PURDYQB SEPORTAL · NEBRASKA
★4★4357%-41HELD
10
AJ BIANCOQB SERET
★3—357%+4—
17
BAYLOR HORNINGQB SERET
UNR—00%——
19
ANTHONY WOLTERQB FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
1
ANTHONY GRIGSBY JR.QB JUNO SNAPS
UNR★200%—EMERGED
▾RB49TAL67PERF49RET18ROTATIONn=4 · 5 METRICS · 19 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
0
SAVION REDRB SEPORTAL · TEXAS
★3★38535%+12HELD
5
PATRICK GARWO IIIRB SEPORTAL · BOSTON COLLEGE
★4★37423%-34FELL
4
SEAN DOLLARSRB SERET
★4★36817%-28FELL
20
CALEB RAMSEURRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—6515%+14—
22
DESTON HAWKINSRB SOPORTAL · SYRACUSE
UNR★3486%—EMERGED
25
KY WOODSRB SEPORTAL · TEXAS
★3★3313%—HELD
26
ASHTON HAYESRB JURET
★3★3161%-47HELD
28
DOMINIK BALLRB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
▾WR/TE28TAL50PERF31RET13ONE OWNERn=7 · 7 METRICS · 37 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
JADEN SMITHWR SENO SNAPS
★3—9832%+21—
4
CORTEZ BRAHAM JR.WR SEPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA
UNR★39731%+3EMERGED
18
MARCUS BELLONWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—9025%+13—
45
ANDREW SAVAIINAEATE JUPORTAL · FLORIDA
★3★37950%-46HELD
11
JACE HENRYTE SEPORTAL · DARTMOUTH
UNR★36426%-29EMERGED
87
OLIVER STUARTTE SORET
UNR—5920%-42—
9
MARSHAUN BROWNWR JURET
★3—565%-46—
12
NATE BURLESON IIWR SORET
UNR—493%+5—
7
MARQUIS ASHLEYWR SERET
★3—412%——
82
JAYDEN O'ROURKETE SERET
UNR—324%——
0
NATHANEAL FLOYDWR SEPORTAL · TEXAS TECH
★3★3321%—HELD
3
CHARLES BROWNWR SEPORTAL · TEXAS STATE
★3—70%+15—
83
CARTER ECKTE SONO SNAPS
UNR—40%——
14
GERICK ROBINSONWR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
88
HAYDEN GEORGETE FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
47
RORY MORGANTE SERET
UNR—00%——
24
TERRELL COOKS JR.WR FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
8
DAIJON CALIMONWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
15
KOLA BABALOLAWR SERET
★3—00%——
85
CAMERON ZEIDLERTE SORET
UNR—00%-27—
81
TRACE ESTESWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
83
CAMERON COOKEWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
87
TALAN PARTCHWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL54TAL43PERF54RET85n=7 · 3 METRICS · 20 OBS
▸DL29TAL57PERF29RET43n=9 · 7 METRICS · 45 OBS
▸LB33TAL26PERF33RET73n=7 · 10 METRICS · 48 OBS
▸DB54TAL67PERF54RET75n=7 · 6 METRICS · 41 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS11 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ZAIDEN WALLACEHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
TERRELL COOKS JR.HS RECRUITATH★3UNR
LEVAR TALLEYHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
DOMINIK BALLHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
DAIJON CALIMONHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
ANTHONY WOLTERHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
ROMAN MARTINHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
LUKE FARRHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
TYLER MILLERHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
HAYDEN GEORGEHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN14 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
KITAN CRAWFORDTEXASS★4★3
DAVIS MALLINGERWEST VIRGINIAS★3★3
SAVION REDTEXASRB★3★3
PATRICK GARWO IIIBOSTON COLLEGERB★4★3
KADEN JOHNSONWISCONSINEDGE★3★3
ANDREW SAVAIINAEAFLORIDATE★3★3
DYLAN LOPEZOREGON STATEIOL★3★3
CHUBBA PURDYNEBRASKAQB★4★3
JACE HENRYDARTMOUTHTEUNR★3
KEYSHAWN COBBWEST VIRGINIASUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT32 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
RICHARD TONEY JR.TCUDB★3★2
JOEY CAPRAARIZONAOL★3★3
JAMES HANSENTEXAS TECHDLUNR★3
MARCEL WALKER-BURGESSOHIODEUNRUNR
DION WASHINGTONHAWAI'IDL★2★3
SOSEFO MOEAKIPORTLAND STATEDLUNR★2
DALEVON CAMPBELLSOUTH CAROLINAWR★3★3
SPENCER CURTISHAWAI'IWR★2UNR
KELEKI LATUWASHINGTONTE★3★3
DAVION BLACKWELLAUSTIN PEAYLB★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES21%5 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS80%9 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#127NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 17 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8265COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2223 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKRETURNS
27TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
2
6
10
5
4
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +1.0 W
FULL RANGE-4 TO +8 W
IMPROVED9 OF 27
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST68% BACK68th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG68% BACK68th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR85%85th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR93%93th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST75%75th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE