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HOME›TEAMS›NEW MEXICO STATE›2023TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
CONFERENCE USA|JERRY KILL|—RECORD10-5|CONF—
NEW MEXICO STATE91 FPICUSA · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
17FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
35%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
66%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1130 BC / 20
BC RATIO
9%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
10-4ACTUALvs9.2-4.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN+6.9
10 wins against a scoring profile describing 9.2. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE63
PERFORMANCE63
TALENT59
CONTINUITY35
DEFENSE15
PERFORMANCE15
TALENT48
CONTINUITY66
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE15 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
33MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 26HMASSACHUSETTS—L 30-414566+39BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
1SEP 2HWESTERN ILLINOIS—W 58-21————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 9ALIBERTY#25L 17-3397575-30BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 16ANEW MEXICO—W 27-171577+38BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 23AHAWAI'I—L 17-202088+37BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4HFLORIDA INTERNATIONAL—W 34-173444+41BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11HSAM HOUSTON—W 27-1371414+31BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18AUTEP—W 28-71888+37BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 24ALOUISIANA TECH—W 27-24241616+29BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4HMIDDLE TENNESSEE—W 13-7352424+21BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11AWESTERN KENTUCKY—W 38-293645450BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18AAUBURN—W 31-10887373-28BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25HJACKSONVILLE STATE—W 20-1764747-2BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14DEC 1ALIBERTY#25L 35-4997575-30BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 16AFRESNO STATE—L 10-37445555-10BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB67TAL85PERF67RET95ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
2
DIEGO PAVIAQB SERET
UNR★39395%+23EMERGED
1
BLAZE BERLOWITZQB SENO SNAPS
UNR★3325%—EMERGED
13
GAVIN FRAKESQB SERET
UNR★300%-22EMERGED
23
JEFF DAVISONQB SERET
UNR—00%——
28
PAUL CIEREMANSQB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB55TAL66PERF55RET98ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 17 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
STAR THOMASRB SERET
UNR★38860%+15EMERGED
8
MONTE WATKINSRB JURET
★4★46827%+32HELD
22
MAKHILYN YOUNGRB SERET
★2★3489%+32ROSE
16
LARENZO MCMILLANRB SERET
UNR—202%——
20
TIM GANSRB SERET
UNR—192%+1—
33
JAMONI JONESRB SERET
UNR★300%-47EMERGED
24
NOAH TRIPLETTRB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
34
DAVID BARELARB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
30
DAILAN GOODMANRB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
37
ISAIAH RUDISONRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE51TAL58PERF47RET60ONE OWNERn=9 · 8 METRICS · 47 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
11
KORDELL DAVIDWR SERET
UNR—9023%-11—
0
JONATHAN BRADYWR SERET
★2★39023%+10ROSE
1
TRENT HUDSONWR SENO SNAPS
UNR★37916%+32EMERGED
1
CHRIS BELLAMYWR SERET
UNR—7615%+24—
85
THOMAZ WHITFORDTE SERET
★3—7536%-18—
9
ELI STOWERSTE SEPORTAL · TEXAS A&M
★4★37030%+20FELL
19
RON TIAVAASUETE SENO SNAPS
UNR—7029%——
8
DONOVAN FAUPELWR SENO SNAPS
★2★3586%-34ROSE
5
BRYCE CHILDRESSWR SERET
★3★3586%+30HELD
12
JORDAN SMITHWR SENO SNAPS
UNR★2473%—EMERGED
2
JORDIN PARKERWR SERET
★3★3453%+36HELD
0
PJ JOHNSON IIIWR SERET
★3★3453%—HELD
88
TREVOR STEPHENSTE JURET
★2—42100%——
89
TYLER DEVERATE JUPORTAL · STONY BROOK
★3★3252%—HELD
86
JERRY LYDIATTTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—222%——
9
KAREEM BURGESSTE SERET
UNR—111%——
10
TA'IR BROOKSWR SERET
UNR★300%—EMERGED
15
MASON GRAHAMTE SONO SNAPS
★4—00%——
81
ALLEN ORTIZWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
25
JAYDEN BELLWR JUNO SNAPS
★2—00%——
26
JADEN THOMASWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
36
ETHAN SINGLETONWR JURET
UNR—00%——
21
ISAIAH ABEYTAWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
27
MILES MCWHORTERWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
29
KADEN TREVINOWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
83
JAYLEN WATKINSWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL42TAL56PERF42RET0n=8 · 3 METRICS · 21 OBS
▸DL46TAL45PERF46RET72n=6 · 7 METRICS · 40 OBS
▸LB32TAL71PERF32RET59n=5 · 11 METRICS · 34 OBS
▸DB38TAL41PERF38RET51n=10 · 6 METRICS · 53 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS18 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JACK GOGUEHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
JEREMIAH VESSELHS RECRUITS★3UNR
BJ TOLOHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
KAI SEVYHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
ADAM PARKSHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
ELIJAH THOMASHS RECRUITS★3UNR
QUINCY DAVISHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
DONOVAN FAUPELHS RECRUITWR★2UNR
JALEN BROWNHS RECRUITEDGE★2UNR
MASON GRAHAMHS RECRUITQBUNRUNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN7 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ELI STOWERSTEXAS A&MQB★4★4
MYLES ROWSERCAMPBELLS★4★4
JACOB GOLDENBOISE STATEOT★3★3
KEONTE GLINTONWYOMINGCB★3★3
TYLER DEVERASTONY BROOKTE★3★3
DION WILSONARIZONADLUNR★3
JORDAN VINCENTEASTERN ILLINOISSUNRUNR
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT29 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
SYRUS DUMASUTSACBUNR★3
LAMA LAVEAAKRONDL★3UNR
NICHOLAS GIACOLONEKENT STATELB★2UNR
JOSH FERGUSONHOUSTON CHRISTIANLB★2UNR
DOMINIC GICINTOUNLVWR★3★3
CHRIS OJOHELIGIBILITY UPLB★2—
BRYCE JACKSONELIGIBILITY UPDB★2—
TREVOR BROHARDELIGIBILITY UPLB★2—
LAZARUS WILLIAMSELIGIBILITY UPDL★2—
LINWOOD CRUMPELIGIBILITY UPDB★2—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES28%4 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS29%9 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#113NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 20 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8157COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
77 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
123TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
22
31
30
29
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +7 W
IMPROVED59 OF 123
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST95% BACK95th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG95% BACK95th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR95%95th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST51%51th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE