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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
BIG TEN|DAVID BRAUN|—RECORD8-5|CONF—
NORTHWESTERN64 FPIB1G · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
63FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
78%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
89%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-5IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#471 BC / 19
BC RATIO
9%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs5.7-6.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+1.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN-1.1
7 wins against a scoring profile describing 5.7. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE21
PERFORMANCE21
TALENT70
CONTINUITY78
DEFENSE57
PERFORMANCE57
TALENT67
CONTINUITY89
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
61MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 3ARUTGERS—L 7-24565959-11BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 9HUTEP—W 38-71888+40BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 16ADUKE—L 14-38527878-30BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 23HMINNESOTA—W 37-34595353-5BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 30HPENN STATE#13L 13-41919797-49BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 7HHOWARD—W 23-20————NON-FBS OPPONENT
8OCT 21ANEBRASKA—L 9-17855151-3BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 28HMARYLAND—W 33-27698585-37BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4HIOWA#24L 7-10716666-18BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11AWISCONSIN—W 24-10797878-30BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18HPURDUE—W 23-15663232+16BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25AILLINOIS—W 45-43554444+4BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 23HUTAH—W 14-7777777-29BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB45TAL72PERF45RET33ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 14 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
2
BEN BRYANTQB SEPORTAL · CINCINNATI
★3★38067%+23HELD
6
BRENDAN SULLIVANQB SERET
★3★36731%+36HELD
3
RYAN HILINSKIQB SERET
★4★3101%-29FELL
12
JACK LAUSCHQB SORET
★3—101%——
4
COLE FREEMANQB SERET
UNR—00%——
9
AIDAN GRAYQB JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▾RB36TAL70PERF36RET96ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 18 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
4
CAM PORTERRB SERET
★3—9355%-36—
6
JOSEPH HIMON IIRB SERET
★3—7022%+34—
2
ANTHONY TYUS IIIRB SERET
★3★36719%-35HELD
5
CALEB KOMOLAFERB JUNO SNAPS
★3—303%——
31
JAKE ARTHURSRB SERET
UNR—191%——
29
MARCUS CISCORB SERET
UNR—00%——
26
ALBERT KUNICKIS IIIRB SORET
UNR—00%——
34
PAYTON ROTHRB JUNO SNAPS
★2—00%——
▾WR/TE30TAL64PERF34RET66ROTATIONn=8 · 8 METRICS · 50 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
14
CAM JOHNSONWR SEPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE
★4★39731%0FELL
17
BRYCE KIRTZWR SERET
★3—9428%-1—
8
A.J. HENNINGWR SEPORTAL · MICHIGAN
★4★38924%-19FELL
88
MARSHALL LANGTE SERET
★3—8130%-12—
87
THOMAS GORDONTE SERET
★3—7929%-30—
89
CHARLIE MANGIERITE SERET
★3—7625%-45—
2
DUKE OLGESTE SERET
★3—5811%——
5
CALVIN JOHNSON IIWR SERET
★3★3546%-48HELD
5
JACOB GILLWR SERET
★3★3535%-6HELD
23
RAYMOND NIRO IIIWR SERET
UNR—382%-28—
19
REGGIE FLEURIMAWR SORET
★4★4342%—HELD
86
LAWSON ALBRIGHTTE SERET
★3—332%——
12
DONNIE GRAYWR SERET
★3★3321%—HELD
87
JACK FITZGERALDTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—312%——
3
FRANK COVEY IVWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—251%——
13
PRESTON BACONWR SERET
UNR—191%——
84
HUNTER WELCINGTE SERET
★3★4171%—ROSE
85
JACK KENNEDYWR SERET
UNR—100%——
83
BLAKE VAN BURENTE SERET
UNR—00%——
81
CHRIS PETRUCCITE SERET
★3—00%——
10
RICKY AHUMARAEZEWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
18
CAMP MAGEETE JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
82
QUINTIN O'CONNELLWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL19TAL77PERF19RET97n=6 · 3 METRICS · 16 OBS
▸DL39TAL57PERF40RET76n=11 · 7 METRICS · 64 OBS
▸LB45TAL65PERF45RET100n=4 · 10 METRICS · 24 OBS
▸DB54TAL75PERF54RET98n=7 · 6 METRICS · 42 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS19 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
NIGEL GLOVERHS RECRUITLB★4UNR
JORDAN KNOXHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
DYLAN SENDAHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
DAMON WALTERSHS RECRUITS★3UNR
MICHAEL KILBANEHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
ANTHONY BIRSAHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
TYLER GANTHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
CAMP MAGEEHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
RICKY AHUMARAEZEHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
FRANK COVEY IVHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN3 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BEN BRYANTCINCINNATIQB★3★3
A.J. HENNINGMICHIGANWR★4★3
CAM JOHNSONARIZONA STATEWR★4★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT25 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JEREMIAH LEWISDUKES★3UNR
MALIK WASHINGTONVIRGINIAWR★3★3
A.J. HAMPTON JR.TULANEDB★3UNR
JORDAN BUTLERABILENE CHRISTIANDL★3UNR
GENSON HOOPER PRICECOASTAL CAROLINAWRUNRUNR
AUSTIN FIRESTONEMISSOURIDL★3★3
CHARLIE SCHMIDTELIGIBILITY UPOLUNR—
ETHAN WIEDERKEHRELIGIBILITY UPOL★3—
ADETOMIWA ADEBAWOREELIGIBILITY UPDL★3—
VINCENT PICOZZIELIGIBILITY UPOLUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES54%3 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS69%5 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#47NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
1OF 19 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8674COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
38 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
134TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.5MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
13
19
35
37
30
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-9 TO +6 W
IMPROVED67 OF 134
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST60% BACK60th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG60% BACK60th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR97%97th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR33%33th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST98%98th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE