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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
MID-AMERICAN|BRIAN SMITH|—RECORD9-4|CONF—
OHIO74 FPIMAC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
9FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
69%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
65%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
+5IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1210 BC / 14
BC RATIO
2%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
8-4ACTUALvs7.6-4.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN+5.8
8 wins against a scoring profile describing 7.6. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE45
PERFORMANCE45
TALENT42
CONTINUITY69
DEFENSE24
PERFORMANCE24
TALENT24
CONTINUITY65
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
32MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 28ARUTGERS—L 31-34624747-8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 6HWEST VIRGINIA—W 17-10553232+7BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 13AOHIO STATE#5L 9-37999999-60BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 20HGARDNER-WEBB—W 52-35————NON-FBS OPPONENT
5SEP 27HBOWLING GREEN—W 35-20231717+22BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4ABALL STATE—L 14-201733+36BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18HNORTHERN ILLINOIS—W 48-21966+33BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25AEASTERN MICHIGAN—W 28-21321313+26BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 4HMIAMI (OH)—W 24-20374040-1BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 11AWESTERN MICHIGAN—L 13-17244343-4BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 18HMASSACHUSETTS—W 42-141500+39BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 28ABUFFALO—W 31-26193030+9BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 23HUNLV—W 17-10645959-20BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB67TAL78PERF67RET100ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
13
PARKER NAVARROQB SERET
★3★38797%+21HELD
8
NICK POULOSQB SERET
UNR—283%-52—
4
JACOB WINTERSQB SORET
★3—00%——
14
TIM CARPENTERQB FRPORTAL · TULSA
★3★300%—HELD
9
HYPE GRANDQB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
16
MATTHEW PAPASQB SORET
UNR—00%——
▾RB59TAL21PERF59RET32ONE OWNERn=2 · 9 METRICS · 14 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
5
SIEH BANGURARB SEPORTAL · MINNESOTA
★3★39867%+2HELD
6
DUNCAN BRUNERB JURET
★3★38232%-23HELD
21
DOE BOYLANDRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—201%——
48
AGINON WILSON JR.RB SORET
UNR—00%——
22
MIKE TAYLOR JR.RB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
24
IRVING BROWNRB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
▾WR/TE48TAL53PERF40RET88ONE OWNERn=8 · 8 METRICS · 46 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
7
CHASE HENDRICKSWR SERET
★3★49631%+19ROSE
11
RODNEY HARRIS IIWR SERET
★3★39429%-23HELD
86
MASON WILLIAMSTE SERET
★3★38353%+26HELD
86
JAKE BRUNOTE SERET
UNR★37946%+6EMERGED
3
DOM DORWARTWR SORET
★3—7817%-58—
88
CALEB GOSSETTWR SERET
UNR—6610%-12—
3
MAX RODARTEWR SERET
UNR—648%-29—
12
EIAN PUGHWR SERET
★3★3575%-46HELD
84
AJ MILLERTE SORET
★3—222%——
10
EAMONN DENNISWR SERET
★3★360%—HELD
0
DELANEY CRAWFORDWR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
82
NICK SEGARRATE SORET
★3★300%—HELD
31
KHAMANI DEBROWWR JURET
UNR—00%——
18
MILES CREMASCOLIWR SORET
★2—00%——
37
BLAKE GUFFEYWR SERET
UNR—00%——
17
KADEN HURSTWR SORET
★3—00%——
23
ALFRED JORDAN JR.WR SEPORTAL · IDAHO STATE
UNR★300%—EMERGED
15
RILEY NEERWR SORET
UNR—00%——
44
AIDEN LOWERYTE SORET
UNR—00%——
20
RASHAD PERRYWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
87
TIM BOALSTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
80
MATTHEW DRAGICHWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
83
COLTON GROVERWR JUPORTAL · SOUTH DAKOTA MINES
UNR★300%—EMERGED
▸OL39TAL26PERF39RET59n=5 · 3 METRICS · 15 OBS
▸DL38TAL27PERF38RET20n=10 · 8 METRICS · 53 OBS
▸LB41TAL24PERF41RET49n=5 · 10 METRICS · 39 OBS
▸DB29TAL22PERF29RET97n=6 · 8 METRICS · 37 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS13 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
IKE ACKERMANHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
DRAYDEN PAVEYHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
MIKE TAYLOR JR.HS RECRUITRB★3UNR
JERMAINE MINNISHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
HYPE GRANDHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
IRVING BROWNHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
IBRAHIM KEBEHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
TYSON LONGHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
BRANDON WEAVERHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
KOLTEN BARTELSHS RECRUITP★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN12 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TIM CARPENTERTULSAQB★3★3
CAMERON HOLLOBAUGHWALSHLBUNR★3
ALFRED JORDAN JR.IDAHO STATEWRUNR★3
ANAS LUQMANARKANSAS-PINE BLUFFEDGEUNR★3
RONALD JACKSON JR.OLD DOMINIONS★3★3
SHEDRICK RHODES JR.RUTGERSOT★3★3
SIEH BANGURAMINNESOTARB★3★3
PIUS ODJUGOCENTRAL MICHIGANDL★3★3
ANDRES DEWERKAPP STATEOT★3★3
JOSH WAITESHIPPENSBURGIOLUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT30 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
SHAY TAYLORCHARLOTTELB★2★3
BRADLEY WEAVERRUTGERSDL★3★4
BRALEN HENDERSONMISSOURIDTUNR★3
CJ DOGGETTE JR.FLORIDA ATLANTICDL★3UNR
AUSTIN BRAWLEYNEW MEXICOSUNRUNR
CAM RICEMARYLANDDLUNR★3
KADIN SCHMITZCHARLOTTELB★2★3
RICKEY HUNT JR.MIDDLE TENNESSEERB★3★3
STELLAN BOWMANCHARLOTTELB★3★3
BRYCE BUTLERTOWSONTE★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES60%4 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS47%6 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#121NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 14 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8337COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2116 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
123TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
22
31
30
29
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +7 W
IMPROVED59 OF 123
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST61% BACK61th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG61% BACK61th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR59%59th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR100%100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST97%97th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE