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HOME›TEAMS›OKLAHOMA STATE›2023TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
BIG 12|MIKE GUNDY|—RECORD10-4|CONF—
OKLAHOMA STATE#16 AP 40 FPIB12 · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
60FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
61%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
86%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-6IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#540 BC / 19
BC RATIO
8%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
9-4ACTUALvs6.6-6.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+2.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN+0.5
9 wins against a scoring profile describing 6.6. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE54
PERFORMANCE54
TALENT63
CONTINUITY61
DEFENSE44
PERFORMANCE44
TALENT61
CONTINUITY86
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE14 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
64MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
4 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2HCENTRAL ARKANSAS—W 27-13————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 9AARIZONA STATE—W 27-15692020+49BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 16HSOUTH ALABAMA—L 7-33426464+5BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 23AIOWA STATE—L 27-34577272-3BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 6HKANSAS STATE#18W 29-21519090-21BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 14HKANSAS#23W 39-32558282-13BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 21AWEST VIRGINIA—W 48-34647272-3BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 28HCINCINNATI—W 45-13643434+35BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4HOKLAHOMA#15W 27-24948888-19BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11AUCF—L 3-45625858+11BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18AHOUSTON—W 43-30652929+40BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25HBYU—W 40-34474343+26BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14DEC 2ATEXAS#3L 21-49969696-27BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 27HTEXAS A&M—W 31-23988989-20BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB79TAL18PERF79RET13ONE OWNERn=3 · 7 METRICS · 9 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
7
ALAN BOWMANQB SEPORTAL · MICHIGAN
★3★39887%+23HELD
12
GUNNAR GUNDYQB SORET
UNR—457%-33—
19
GARRET RANGELQB JURET
★4★3406%-40FELL
14
PEYTON THOMPSONQB SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
6
ZANE FLORESQB SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
▾RB61TAL81PERF61RET92ONE OWNERn=4 · 9 METRICS · 18 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
OLLIE GORDON IIRB JURET
★4—10070%+18—
5
JADEN NIXONRB SERET
★3★36714%+28HELD
24
ELIJAH COLLINSRB SEPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE
★3★3526%-22HELD
90
BRADEN CASSITYFB SERET
★3—506%-44—
38
JAKE SCHULTZFB SERET
★2—352%——
10
SESI VAILAHIRB JUNO SNAPS
★3★3282%—HELD
47
LUKE MCENDOOFB SERET
UNR★300%—EMERGED
48
BRYCE DRUMMONDFB JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
25
HUDSON DEVINSRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE50TAL66PERF64RET56ONE OWNERn=8 · 8 METRICS · 51 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
80
BRENNAN PRESLEYWR SERET
★3—9929%+19—
16
JOSIAH JOHNSONTE SEPORTAL · MASSACHUSETTS
★3★39590%+48HELD
10
RASHOD OWENSWR SERET
★3—9321%+18—
5
JADEN BRAYWR SERET
★3★38316%+12HELD
17
LEON JOHNSON IIIWR SEPORTAL · NEWBERG
UNR★37914%+27EMERGED
7
BLAINE GREENWR SERET
★3★3637%-39HELD
1
DE'ZHAUN STRIBLINGWR SEPORTAL · WASHINGTON STATE
★3★4627%+1ROSE
86
TALYN SHETTRONWR JURET
★4★3544%-34FELL
82
QUINTON STEWARTTE SERET
★3—4810%——
83
CALE CABBINESSWR SERET
UNR—211%——
81
CAMRON HEARDWR SONO SNAPS
★3★3130%—HELD
85
TYKIE ANDREWSWR FRTRUE FR
★3★360%—HELD
84
MASON GILKEYWR SORET
★3—00%——
11
TABRY SHETTRONTE SORET
★3—00%——
31
JAXON DEASONWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
37
SETH SWIRCZYNSKIWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
3
TY WALLSWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
23
JALEN POPEWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
86
IAN EDENFIELDTE SEPORTAL · CALIFORNIA, PA.
UNR★300%—EMERGED
87
CASON CABBINESSWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL74TAL68PERF74RET65n=7 · 3 METRICS · 20 OBS
▸DL48TAL64PERF48RET62n=9 · 7 METRICS · 45 OBS
▸LB66TAL73PERF66RET97n=3 · 11 METRICS · 33 OBS
▸DB46TAL49PERF46RET69n=9 · 8 METRICS · 53 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS13 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ZANE FLORESHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
KAM FRANKLINHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
CAMRON HEARDHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JAEDON FOREMANHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
DYLAN SMITHHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
JACK ENDEANHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
TYWON WRAY JR.HS RECRUITS★3UNR
RJ LESTER JR.HS RECRUITS★3UNR
POASA UTUHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
SIOLAA LOLOHEAHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN12 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DE'ZHAUN STRIBLINGWASHINGTON STATEWR★3★4
ARLAND BRUCE IVIOWAWR★4★4
ANTHONY GOODLOWTULSAEDGE★3★4
DALTON COOPERTEXAS STATEOT★3★4
JUSTIN WRIGHTTULSALB★2★3
KENNETH HARRISARKANSAS STATECB★3★3
JUSTIN KIRKLANDUTAH TECHDLUNR★3
ELIJAH COLLINSMICHIGAN STATERB★3★3
JOSIAH JOHNSONMASSACHUSETTSTE★3★3
LEON JOHNSON IIINEWBERGWRUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT36 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CALEB ETIENNEBYUOL★3★3
MASON COBBUSCLB★3★4
JABBAR MUHAMMADWASHINGTONDB★3★4
SPENCER SANDERSOLE MISSQB★4★3
THOMAS HARPERNOTRE DAMES★3★3
BRYSON GREENWISCONSINWR★3★3
JP RICHARDSONTCUWR★3UNR
DOMINIC RICHARDSONBAYLORRB★3★3
TRACE FORDOKLAHOMADL★4★4
SAMUELA TUIHALAMAKASAN DIEGO STATEDL★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES65%9 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS58%9 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#54NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 19 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8558COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1319 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
74TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-2.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
16
24
15
12
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.8 W
FULL RANGE-8 TO +5 W
IMPROVED19 OF 74
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST34% BACK34th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG34% BACK34th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR65%65th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR13%13th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST68%68th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE