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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
BIG TEN|DAN LANNING|—RECORD12-2|CONF—
OREGON#6 AP 4 FPIB1G · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
93FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
67%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
51%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-19IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#919 BC / 33
BC RATIO
53%CLEARS
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
11-2ACTUALvs11.7-1.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN+26.8
11 wins against a scoring profile describing 11.7. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE99
PERFORMANCE99
TALENT81
CONTINUITY67
DEFENSE95
PERFORMANCE95
TALENT81
CONTINUITY51
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE14 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
59MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2HPORTLAND STATE—W 81-7————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 9ATEXAS TECH—W 38-30726868+30BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 16HHAWAI'I—W 55-102088+90BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 23HCOLORADO—W 42-6753939+59BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 30ASTANFORD—W 42-6741919+79BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 14AWASHINGTON#2L 33-36829191+7BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 21HWASHINGTON STATE—W 38-24466363+35BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 28AUTAH—W 35-6777777+21BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4HCALIFORNIA—W 63-19685050+48BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11HUSC—W 36-27957878+20BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18AARIZONA STATE—W 49-13692020+78BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 24HOREGON STATE—W 31-7618686+12BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14DEC 1AWASHINGTON#2L 31-34829191+7BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLJAN 1HLIBERTY#25W 45-697575+23BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB89TAL78PERF89RET98ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
10
BO NIXQB SERET
★3—9798%+39—
16
AUSTIN NOVOSADQB JUNO SNAPS
★4★3212%—FELL
19
MARCUS SANDERSQB FRRET
★3—00%——
12
BROCK THOMASQB JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▾RB84TAL83PERF84RET92ONE OWNERn=4 · 9 METRICS · 18 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
BUCKY IRVINGRB JURET
★4—9959%+24—
20
JORDAN JAMESRB JURET
★4—8226%+30—
6
NOAH WHITTINGTONRB SERET
★3—547%+25—
17
JAYDEN LIMARRB SENO SNAPS
★4★3495%-14FELL
22
DANTE DOWDELLRB SENO SNAPS
★4★4342%+20HELD
25
BRISON COBBINSRB JURET
UNR—00%——
25
KILOHANA HAASENRITTERRB SERET
★3—00%——
32
ELLIS BYNUMRB JURET
★3—00%——
▾WR/TE76TAL90PERF77RET52ONE OWNERn=7 · 8 METRICS · 43 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
11
TROY FRANKLINWR JURET
★4—9630%+33—
3
TERRANCE FERGUSONTE SERET
★4—9546%+9—
15
TEZ JOHNSONWR SEPORTAL · TROY
★3★39025%+36HELD
88
PATRICK HERBERTTE SERET
★4—8431%+22—
2
GARY BRYANT JR.WR SEPORTAL · USC
★4★48421%-4HELD
1
TRAESHON HOLDENWR SEPORTAL · ALABAMA
★4★48019%+11HELD
10
CASEY KELLYTE SEPORTAL · OLE MISS
★3★36918%-40HELD
18
KENYON SADIQTE JUNO SNAPS
★4—495%——
3
KYLER KASPERWR JURET
★4★3453%—FELL
13
JURRION DICKEYWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—301%——
4
KRIS HUTSONWR SERET
★4★3211%+6FELL
18
JUSTIUS LOWEWR SERET
★3★3211%—HELD
82
DARRIAN ANDERSONWR SERET
UNR★3170%—EMERGED
13
TY THOMPSONTE SERET
★4★300%—FELL
83
JOSH DELGADOWR JURET
★4★400%—HELD
42
KADEN LUDWICKTE FRPORTAL · COLORADO
★3★300%—HELD
87
VON REAMESWR SORET
UNR—00%——
28
PRESTON ALFORDWR JURET
UNR—00%——
45
PETER BURKETE FRRET
★2—00%——
44
ZACH GRACETE JUNO SNAPS
UNR★300%—EMERGED
80
ASHTON COZARTWR SENO SNAPS
★4★300%—FELL
82
ANDREW WALKERWR FRTRUE FR
★2—00%——
84
MICAH WILLIAMSWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
85
TRAVIS BRASHEARTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
89
LANDEN SHEPARDTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL88TAL75PERF88RET71n=6 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL57TAL77PERF57RET63n=9 · 8 METRICS · 50 OBS
▸LB53TAL82PERF53RET64n=11 · 11 METRICS · 59 OBS
▸DB56TAL85PERF56RET40n=10 · 8 METRICS · 57 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS18 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JURRION DICKEYHS RECRUITWR★5UNR
MATAYO UIAGALELEIHS RECRUITEDGE★4UNR
RODRICK PLEASANTHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
KENYON SADIQHS RECRUITATH★4UNR
DAYLEN AUSTINHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
AUSTIN NOVOSADHS RECRUITQB★4UNR
DANTE DOWDELLHS RECRUITRB★4UNR
JOHNNY BOWENS IIIHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
ASHTON COZARTHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
ASHTON PORTERHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN7 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JORDAN BURCHSOUTH CAROLINAEDGE★5★4
AJANI CORNELIUSRHODE ISLANDOTUNR★4
TRAESHON HOLDENALABAMAWR★4★4
EVAN WILLIAMSFRESNO STATES★4★4
JUNIOR ANGILAUTEXASIOL★4★4
JESTIN JACOBSIOWALB★4★4
GARY BRYANT JR.USCWR★4★4
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT36 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CAM MCCORMICKMIAMITE★3★3
MOLIKI MATAVAOUCLATE★4★3
TREVEN MA'AEBAYLORDL★3★3
KEITH BROWNLOUISVILLELB★4★3
JUSTIN FLOWEARIZONALB★5★5
BRADYN SWINSONLSUDE★3★3
DONT'E THORNTON JR.TENNESSEEWRUNR★4
JACKSON LADUKENEVADALB★3★3
KEANU WILLIAMSUCLADT★4★3
SEAN DOLLARSNEVADARB★4★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES43%10 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS44%9 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#9NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
19OF 33 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8969COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1534 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
125TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
4
23
33
36
29
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +8 W
IMPROVED65 OF 125
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST84% BACK84th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG84% BACK84th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR71%71th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR98%98th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST40%40th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE