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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
BIG TEN|DAN LANNING|—RECORD13-1|CONF—
OREGON#3 AP 6 FPIB1G · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
96FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
80%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
63%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-6IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#321 BC / 31
BC RATIO
56%CLEARS
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
13-0ACTUALvs10.9-2.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+2.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-0
AVG SCORING MARGIN+18.2
13 wins against a scoring profile describing 10.9. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE94
PERFORMANCE94
TALENT82
CONTINUITY80
DEFENSE82
PERFORMANCE82
TALENT87
CONTINUITY63
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE14 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
61MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
5 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31HIDAHO—W 24-14————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 7HBOISE STATE#8W 37-34457979+20BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 14AOREGON STATE—W 49-14472828+71BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28AUCLA—W 34-13804444+55BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4HMICHIGAN STATE—W 31-10713333+66BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12HOHIO STATE#1W 32-3199100100-1BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18APURDUE—W 35-0741010+89BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26HILLINOIS#16W 38-9557777+22BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 2AMICHIGAN—W 38-17898181+18BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 9HMARYLAND—W 39-18643636+63BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16AWISCONSIN—W 16-13815656+43BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30HWASHINGTON—W 49-21755757+42BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
15DEC 7HPENN STATE#5W 45-37939797+2BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLJAN 1HOHIO STATE#1L 21-4199100100-1BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB75TAL95PERF75RET0ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
8
DILLON GABRIELQB SEPORTAL · OKLAHOMA
★3★49698%+36ROSE
5
DANTE MOOREQB JUPORTAL · UCLA
★3★4202%+7ROSE
16
AUSTIN NOVOSADQB JURET
★4★340%—FELL
10
LUKE MOGAQB JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
12
BROCK THOMASQB JURET
★3—00%——
13
RYDER HAYESQB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB58TAL67PERF58RET97ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 21 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
20
JORDAN JAMESRB JURET
★4—9855%+32—
6
NOAH WHITTINGTONRB SERET
★3—8936%+17—
17
JAYDEN LIMARRB SERET
★4★3526%-43FELL
21
DA'JAUN RIGGSRB SONO SNAPS
★3—252%+37—
9
JAY HARRISRB SEPORTAL · NORTHWEST MISSOURI ST
UNR★3232%-23EMERGED
25
BRISON COBBINSRB JURET
UNR—00%——
25
KILOHANA HAASENRITTERRB SERET
★3—00%——
32
ELLIS BYNUMRB JURET
★3—00%——
▾WR/TE76TAL89PERF74RET74ROTATIONn=7 · 8 METRICS · 48 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
3
TERRANCE FERGUSONTE SERET
★4—9343%+25—
7
EVAN STEWARTWR SEPORTAL · TEXAS A&M
★5★59328%-3HELD
15
TEZ JOHNSONWR SERET
★3★39226%+35HELD
1
TRAESHON HOLDENWR SERET
★4★49025%+19HELD
88
PATRICK HERBERTTE SERET
★4—8229%+12—
18
KENYON SADIQTE JURET
★4—7623%+38—
18
JUSTIUS LOWEWR SERET
★3★37616%-37HELD
3
KYLER KASPERWR JURET
★4★3412%-63FELL
2
GARY BRYANT JR.WR SERET
★4★4372%-6HELD
44
ZACH GRACETE JURET
UNR★3352%—EMERGED
2
ROGER SALEAPAGA IITE JUNO SNAPS
★4★4322%——
13
JURRION DICKEYWR FRRET
UNR—130%——
3
JEREMIAH MCCLELLANWR SONO SNAPS
★4—130%——
5
RYAN PELLUM TAYLORWR FRTRUE FR
★4—00%——
85
KADE CATONTE SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
86
DARRIAN ANDERSONWR SERET
UNR★300%—EMERGED
80
DILLON GRESHAMWR SONO SNAPS
★4—00%——
87
A.J. PUGLIANOTE SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
28
PRESTON ALFORDWR JURET
UNR—00%——
88
JACK RESSLERWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
85
TRAVIS BRASHEARTE FRRET
UNR—00%——
86
JALEN SAINT PAULWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
89
BRADY BIDWELLWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL72TAL76PERF72RET100n=6 · 3 METRICS · 17 OBS
▸DL72TAL91PERF72RET53n=7 · 8 METRICS · 40 OBS
▸LB53TAL78PERF53RET99n=7 · 11 METRICS · 45 OBS
▸DB66TAL91PERF66RET42n=9 · 8 METRICS · 44 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS18 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
GATLIN BAIRHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
ELIJAH RUSHINGHS RECRUITEDGE★4UNR
IFY OBIDEGWUHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
AYDIN BRELANDHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
AARON FLOWERSHS RECRUITS★4UNR
JEREMIAH MCCLELLANHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
DAKODA FIELDSHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
RYAN PELLUMHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
JACQAWN MCROYHS RECRUITOT★4UNR
JERICHO JOHNSONHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN7 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVAN STEWARTTEXAS A&MWR★5★5
DANTE MOOREUCLAQB★3★4
JABBAR MUHAMMADWASHINGTONCB★3★4
JAMAREE CALDWELLHOUSTONDLUNR★4
DILLON GABRIELOKLAHOMAQB★3★4
DERRICK HARMONMICHIGAN STATEDL★3★4
KAM ALEXANDERUTSACBUNR★4
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT31 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TRIKWEZE BRIDGESFLORIDADB★3★3
CASEY KELLYEAST CAROLINATE★3★3
COLE MARTINARIZONA STATEDB★4★3
JAKE SHIPLEYNORTH TEXASDL★3★3
BRYAN ADDISONUCLADB★4★3
BEN ROBERTSMICHIGAN STATEDL★4★3
DAYMON DAVIDAKRONS★4★3
DANTE DOWDELLNEBRASKARB★4★4
KRIS HUTSONWASHINGTON STATEWR★4★3
TEVITA POME'EOREGON STATEDT★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES63%5 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS36%5 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#3NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
21OF 31 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.9068COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1420 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
68TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
14
11
19
16
8
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.3 TO +1.0 W
FULL RANGE-11 TO +7 W
IMPROVED24 OF 68
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST32% BACK32th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG32% BACK32th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR100%100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST42%42th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE