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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
BIG TEN|DAN LANNING|—RECORD13-2|CONF—
OREGON#4 AP 4 FPIB1G · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
97FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
51%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
65%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-3IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#518 BC / 21
BC RATIO
61%CLEARS
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
11-1ACTUALvs10.8-1.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
AVG SCORING MARGIN+23.3
11 wins against a scoring profile describing 10.8. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE92
PERFORMANCE92
TALENT91
CONTINUITY51
DEFENSE90
PERFORMANCE90
TALENT85
CONTINUITY65
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE15 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
68MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
6 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30HMONTANA STATE—W 59-13————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 6HOKLAHOMA STATE—W 69-3651111+87BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 13ANORTHWESTERN—W 34-14596363+35BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 20HOREGON STATE—W 41-75777+91BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 27APENN STATE—W 30-24939090+8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11HINDIANA#1L 20-3048100100-2BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18ARUTGERS—W 56-10624747+51BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25HWISCONSIN—W 21-7803838+60BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8AIOWA#17W 18-16709292+6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 14HMINNESOTA—W 42-13714949+49BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22HUSC#20W 42-27888989+9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29AWASHINGTON—W 26-14749191+7BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 20HJAMES MADISON#19W 51-3488181+17BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLJAN 1ATEXAS TECH#7W 23-0809999-1BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLJAN 9AINDIANA#1L 22-5648100100-2BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB75TAL96PERF75RET94ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
5
DANTE MOOREQB JURET
★3★49594%+29ROSE
12
BROCK THOMASQB JURET
★3—364%——
10
LUKE MOGAQB JURET
★3★3181%—HELD
16
AUSTIN NOVOSADQB JURET
★4★350%—FELL
15
AKILI SMITH JR.QB FRTRUE FR
★4—00%——
13
RYDER HAYESQB SORET
UNR—00%——
19
MARK WIEPERTQB FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
▾RB72TAL69PERF72RET55ROTATIONn=5 · 9 METRICS · 28 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
6
NOAH WHITTINGTONRB SERET
★3—8731%+25—
0
JORDON DAVISONRB SONO SNAPS
★4—8123%+37—
6
DIERRE HILL JR.RB SONO SNAPS
★4—7317%+38—
17
JAYDEN LIMARRB SERET
★4★36713%+33FELL
9
JAY HARRISRB SERET
UNR★3609%-41EMERGED
21
MAKHI HUGHESRB SEPORTAL · TULANE
★3★3495%+8HELD
21
DA'JAUN RIGGSRB SORET
★3—383%+25—
40
ZANDER QUINNRB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE80TAL92PERF78RET54ONE OWNERn=8 · 8 METRICS · 46 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
18
KENYON SADIQTE JURET
★4—9749%+29—
9
JAMARI JOHNSONTE JUPORTAL · LOUISVILLE
UNR★49339%+48EMERGED
4
MALIK BENSONWR SEPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE
UNR★48223%+11EMERGED
3
JEREMIAH MCCLELLANWR SORET
★4—8223%+27—
1
DAKORIEN MOOREWR SONO SNAPS
★5—7921%+12—
2
GARY BRYANT JR.WR SERET
★4★47417%-3HELD
10
COOPER PERRYWR SONO SNAPS
★4★3628%-66FELL
2
ROGER SALEAPAGA IITE JURET
★4★4588%——
18
JUSTIUS LOWEWR SERET
★3★3545%-37HELD
44
ZACH GRACETE JURET
UNR★3413%—EMERGED
3
KYLER KASPERWR JURET
★4★3362%-54FELL
85
KADE CATONTE SORET
★3★3221%—HELD
7
EVAN STEWARTWR SERET
★5★500%-3HELD
86
DARRIAN ANDERSONWR SERET
UNR★300%—EMERGED
80
DILLON GRESHAMWR SORET
★4—00%——
87
A.J. PUGLIANOTE SORET
★3—00%——
88
JACK RESSLERWR SORET
★3—00%——
81
VANDER PLOOGTE SONO SNAPS
★4★300%—FELL
89
BRADY BIDWELLWR SORET
UNR—00%——
82
NATHAN MCCOY IIWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
84
JOVON MCRAE IIWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL76TAL92PERF76RET43n=6 · 3 METRICS · 16 OBS
▸DL57TAL94PERF58RET75n=10 · 7 METRICS · 45 OBS
▸LB54TAL71PERF54RET95n=4 · 11 METRICS · 37 OBS
▸DB70TAL91PERF70RET30n=11 · 8 METRICS · 57 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS18 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DAKORIEN MOOREHS RECRUITWR★5UNR
NA'EEM OFFORDHS RECRUITCB★5UNR
TREY MCNUTTHS RECRUITS★5UNR
BRANDON FINNEY JR.HS RECRUITCB★4UNR
DORIAN BREWHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
JARON-KEAWE SAGAPOLUTELEHS RECRUITQB★4UNR
DOUGLAS UTUHS RECRUITIOL★4UNR
ZIYARE ADDISONHS RECRUITOT★4UNR
DIERRE HILL JR.HS RECRUITRB★4UNR
COOPER PERRYHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN7 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EMMANUEL PREGNONUSCIOLUNR★4
BEAR ALEXANDERUSCDL★4★4
ISAIAH WORLDNEVADAOT★3★4
MALIK BENSONFLORIDA STATEWRUNR★4
JAMARI JOHNSONLOUISVILLETEUNR★4
DILLON THIENEMANPURDUES★3★4
MAKHI HUGHESTULANERB★3★4
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT33 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EMAR'RION WINSTONBAYLORDL★3★3
JAEDEN MOOREPITTSBURGHDL★3★3
TYLER TURNERBAYLORS★4★3
RODRICK PLEASANTUCLADB★4★3
RYAN PELLUM TAYLORDELAWARE STATEWR★4UNR
KHAMARI TERRELLTEXAS STATECB★4★3
AJANI CORNELIUSNFL DRAFT R6OLUNR—
JOSH CONERLY JR.NFL DRAFT R1OL★5—
DERRICK HARMONNFL DRAFT R1DL★3—
JEFFREY BASSANFL DRAFT R5LB★4—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES65%5 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS62%6 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#5NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
18OF 21 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.9331COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1114 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
68TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
14
11
19
16
8
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.3 TO +1.0 W
FULL RANGE-11 TO +7 W
IMPROVED24 OF 68
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST25% BACK25th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG25% BACK25th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR43%43th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR94%94th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST30%30th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE