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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
PAC-12|TRENT BRAY|—RECORD2-10|CONF—
OREGON STATE111 FPIPAC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
57FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
56%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
68%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-1IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#640 BC / 20
BC RATIO
11%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
2-10ACTUALvs2.9-9.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN-11.3
2 wins against a scoring profile describing 2.9. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE26
PERFORMANCE26
TALENT62
CONTINUITY56
DEFENSE25
PERFORMANCE25
TALENT55
CONTINUITY68
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
53MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30HCALIFORNIA—L 15-34744141-34BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 6HFRESNO STATE—L 27-36355151-44BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 13ATEXAS TECH#7L 14-45809999-92BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 20AOREGON#4L 7-41979898-91BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 26HHOUSTON#22L 24-27537171-64BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4AAPP STATE—L 23-27431919-12BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11HWAKE FOREST—L 14-39476262-55BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18HLAFAYETTE—W 45-13————NON-FBS OPPONENT
10NOV 1HWASHINGTON STATE—W 10-7315656-49BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8HSAM HOUSTON—L 17-211111+6BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15ATULSA—L 14-31392424-17BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29AWASHINGTON STATE—L 8-32315656-49BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB72TAL84PERF72RET25ONE OWNERn=3 · 7 METRICS · 12 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
6
MAALIK MURPHYQB SEPORTAL · DUKE
★4★47962%-18HELD
5
GABARRI JOHNSONQB SORET
★3★46725%-13ROSE
10
TRISTAN TI'AQB SONO SNAPS
★3★35914%+38HELD
16
KALLEN GUTRIDGEQB FRRET
★3★300%—HELD
▾RB42TAL69PERF42RET83ONE OWNERn=2 · 9 METRICS · 13 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
0
ANTHONY HANKERSONRB SERET
★3★39976%-18HELD
3
CORNELL HATCHER JR.RB SORET
★3—6515%+16—
7
SALAHADIN ALLAHRB JURET
★3★3496%-30HELD
34
JAKE REICHLERB SERET
★3—211%+38—
22
MARQUIS CROSBYRB SEPORTAL · LOUISIANA TECH
★3★3181%-16HELD
25
KOURDEY GLASSRB FRTRUE FR
★3—131%——
33
SKYLER JACKSONRB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
▾WR/TE53TAL74PERF53RET82ONE OWNERn=7 · 8 METRICS · 45 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
4
TRENT WALKERWR SERET
UNR★39733%+26EMERGED
1
DAVID WELLS JR.WR JURET
★3★39127%-7HELD
8
BRYCE CAUFIELDTE SERET
UNR—9052%-12—
82
GABE MILBOURNTE SERET
UNR—8138%+16—
2
TAZ REDDICKSWR JURET
★3★37717%+1HELD
14
EDDIE FREAUFFWR SORET
★3—7314%-29—
17
MALACHI DURANTWR SORET
★3—555%-60—
18
RILEY WILLIAMSTE JUNO SNAPS
★4★3476%+1FELL
5
KARSON BOSCHMAWR SERET
UNR—443%——
87
JACKSON BOWERSTE JUPORTAL · BYU
★4★4343%—HELD
9
JAMAI EASTWR JURET
★3★3281%—HELD
44
CARSON KOLBTE SORET
UNR—201%——
41
JHAE DRUMMERWR SERET
UNR—00%——
12
ZACK CARDWR SORET
★3★300%-61—
2
JIMMY VALSIN IIIWR SERET
★3★300%+15HELD
4
DARRIUS CLEMONSWR SERET
★4★300%-8FELL
85
COOPER JENSENTE SORET
★3—00%——
89
T'ANDRE WAVERLYTE FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
15
ELLIJAH WASHINGTONWR FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
84
CODY SIEGNERTE FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
▸OL56TAL51PERF56RET55n=9 · 3 METRICS · 26 OBS
▸DL51TAL61PERF51RET56n=9 · 7 METRICS · 42 OBS
▸LB44TAL45PERF44RET75n=9 · 11 METRICS · 46 OBS
▸DB54TAL59PERF54RET67n=7 · 8 METRICS · 41 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS17 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TRISTAN TI'AHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
NIKLAS FISHERHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
TREY GLASPERHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
T'ANDRE WAVERLYHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
BLAKE THOMPSONHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
BLEU DANTZLERHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
KOURDEY GLASSHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
JAKE NORMOYLEHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
CODY SIEGNERHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
ELLIJAH WASHINGTONHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN8 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MAALIK MURPHYDUKEQB★4★4
RILEY WILLIAMSMIAMITEUNR★3
MARQUIS CROSBYLOUISIANA TECHRB★3★3
TYJAI HOPPERJAMES MADISONCB★3★3
WILL LARKINSGEORGIA STATEOT★3★3
RAESJON DAVISUSCLB★4★3
TJ CRANDALLWEST VIRGINIACB★3★3
KEYON COXUCFOT★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT21 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ISAIAH CHISOMUCLALB★3★3
ANDRE JORDAN JR.UCLACB★3★3
MELVIN JORDAN IVGEORGIA TECHLB★3★3
JACK KANERICESUNR★3
JEREMIAH NOGAWASHINGTON STATEWRUNR★3
LUKA VINCICMICHIGAN STATEOL★3★3
GEVANI MCCOYTEMPLEQB★3★3
OLUWASEYI OMOTOSHOWEST VIRGINIADLUNR★3
BEN GULBRANSONSTANFORDQB★3★3
DJ WESOLAKMISSOURI STATEDL★4★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES32%4 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS24%3 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#64NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 20 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8558COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1415 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKNEW
39TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
2
14
4
12
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.5 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-5 TO +8 W
IMPROVED19 OF 39
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST50% BACK50th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG50% BACK50th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR55%55th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR25%25th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST67%67th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE