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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
ACC|PAT NARDUZZI|—RECORD7-6|CONF—
PITTSBURGH52 FPIACC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
69FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
63%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
72%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-8IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#411 BC / 23
BC RATIO
17%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
7-5ACTUALvs7.2-4.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN+5.1
7 wins against a scoring profile describing 7.2. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE38
PERFORMANCE38
TALENT61
CONTINUITY63
DEFENSE80
PERFORMANCE80
TALENT72
CONTINUITY72
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
56MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31HKENT STATE—W 55-24900+62BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 7ACINCINNATI—W 28-27574747+15BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 14HWEST VIRGINIA—W 38-34615252+10BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21HYOUNGSTOWN STATE—W 73-17————NON-FBS OPPONENT
6OCT 5ANORTH CAROLINA—W 34-24856464-2BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12HCALIFORNIA—W 17-15665959+3BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 24HSYRACUSE#20W 41-13666666-4BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 2ASMU#12L 25-48829292-30BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 9HVIRGINIA—L 19-24563232+30BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16HCLEMSON#14L 20-24978484-22BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23ALOUISVILLE—L 9-37748585-23BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30ABOSTON COLLEGE—L 23-34584848+14BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 26ATOLEDO—L 46-48374141+21BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB59TAL57PERF59RET36ONE OWNERn=4 · 8 METRICS · 18 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
10
ELI HOLSTEINQB SEPORTAL · ALABAMA
★4★37856%+11FELL
19
NATE YARNELLQB SERET
★3★37136%+11HELD
16
DAVID LYNCHQB SORET
UNR—376%-14—
2
JULIAN DUGGERQB SONO SNAPS
★3★3303%—HELD
17
JAKE FRANTLQB JURET
UNR—00%——
7
TY DIEFFENBACHQB JURET
★3★300%—HELD
▾RB56TAL76PERF56RET22ONE OWNERn=4 · 9 METRICS · 15 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
0
DESMOND REIDRB SEPORTAL · WESTERN CAROLINA
★3★39966%+15HELD
22
JUELZ GOFFRB SONO SNAPS
★3★36110%-32HELD
34
DERRICK DAVIS JR.RB SERET
★4★3609%-36HELD
4
DANIEL CARTERRB SERET
★3—567%+38—
2
RODNEY HAMMOND JR.RB SERET
★3★3455%-19HELD
14
MONTRAVIUS LLOYDRB SORET
★3★300%—HELD
30
CALEB WILLIAMSRB SORET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE31TAL53PERF31RET61ONE OWNERn=7 · 8 METRICS · 50 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
5
RAPHAEL WILLIAMS JR.WR SEPORTAL · SAN DIEGO STATE
UNR★310029%+6EMERGED
86
GAVIN BARTHOLOMEWTE SERET
★3—9868%-15—
9
KONATA MUMPFIELDWR SERET
★3—9824%+7—
2
KENNY JOHNSONWR SERET
★3★39622%-24HELD
87
JAKE OVERMANTE SEPORTAL · OREGON STATE
★3★37629%-31HELD
10
CENSERE LEEWR SENO SNAPS
★3—7411%-16—
3
DAEJON REYNOLDSWR JURET
★4★37110%-5FELL
23
ZION FOWLER-ELWR SORET
★3★3422%—HELD
24
TYREEK ROBINSONWR SONO SNAPS
★3—341%——
21
CHE NWABUKOWR SORET
★3—343%——
12
MALACHI THOMASTE JUNO SNAPS
★3★3302%—HELD
83
LAMAR SEYMOREWR FRRET
★3★3210%—HELD
14
BENNY HASELRIGWR JURET
UNR—210%——
12
CAMERON MONTEIROWR SONO SNAPS
★3★3150%—HELD
7
JAKE MCCONNACHIEWR SERET
UNR★3130%—EMERGED
88
JAKE RENDATE SERET
★3★300%—HELD
81
PETER VARDZELWR JURET
UNR—00%——
47
CADEN SMITHWR JURET
UNR—00%——
85
JOSH ALTSMANTE JURET
UNR—00%——
22
DEVIN WHITLOCKWR FRRET
UNR—00%——
44
ADAM HOWANITZTE JURET
UNR—00%——
80
THADDEUS SHAWWR FRRET
UNR—00%——
32
TRUITT BROWNTE SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
40
AMAH AGWUWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
41
JAKE SASSICWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL43TAL67PERF43RET70n=9 · 3 METRICS · 24 OBS
▸DL72TAL73PERF72RET51n=12 · 7 METRICS · 52 OBS
▸LB74TAL68PERF74RET80n=8 · 11 METRICS · 56 OBS
▸DB50TAL73PERF50RET74n=8 · 6 METRICS · 43 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS17 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CALEB HOLMESHS RECRUITIOL★4UNR
FRANCIS BREWUHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
CAMERON LINDSEYHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
JAHSEAR WHITTINGTONHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
SINCERE EDWARDSHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
JEREMIAH MARCELINHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
MORITZ SCHMORANZERHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
JUELZ GOFFHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
CAMERON MONTEIROHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JULIAN DUGGERHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN8 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
RAPHAEL WILLIAMS JR.SAN DIEGO STATEWRUNR★3
DAVID OJIEGBECLEMSONEDGE★4★3
ELI HOLSTEINALABAMAQB★4★3
KEYE THOMPSONOHIOLB★2★3
JAREMIAH ANGLIN JR.KENTUCKYS★4★3
NATE MATLACKKANSAS STATEEDGE★3★3
DESMOND REIDWESTERN CAROLINARB★3★3
JAKE OVERMANOREGON STATETE★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT27 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
SOLOMON DESHIELDSTEXAS A&MLB★3★3
DAYON HAYESCOLORADODE★4★3
BANGALLY KAMARASOUTH CAROLINALB★3★3
DEANDRE JULESSOUTH CAROLINADT★3★4
KARTER JOHNSONFLORIDA A&MTE★4UNR
SAMUEL OKUNLOLACOLORADODL★3★3
CHRISTIAN VEILLEUXGEORGIA STATEQB★3★3
STEPHON HALLYOUNGSTOWN STATES★3★3
ISRAEL POLKAKRONWR★3★3
JAHVANTE ROYALNEW MEXICOCB★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES46%3 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS37%5 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#41NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
1OF 23 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8637COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1422 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKNEW
39TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
2
14
4
12
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.5 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-5 TO +8 W
IMPROVED19 OF 39
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST42% BACK42th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG42% BACK42th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR70%70th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR36%36th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST74%74th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE