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HOME›TEAMS›SOUTH ALABAMA›2023TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
SUN BELT|KANE WOMMACK|—RECORD7-6|CONF—
SOUTH ALABAMA59 FPISBC · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
42FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
71%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
93%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
+5IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#900 BC / 12
BC RATIO
4%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs8.3-3.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-2.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN+9.0
6 wins against a scoring profile describing 8.3. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE78
PERFORMANCE78
TALENT55
CONTINUITY71
DEFENSE64
PERFORMANCE64
TALENT63
CONTINUITY93
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
41MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2ATULANE—L 17-37415656+8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 9HSE LOUISIANA—W 35-17————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 16AOKLAHOMA STATE#16W 33-7606969-5BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 23HCENTRAL MICHIGAN—L 30-34955+59BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 30AJAMES MADISON—L 23-3158686-22BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 7AUL MONROE—W 55-71022+62BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 17HSOUTHERN MISS—W 55-3231313+51BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 28HLOUISIANA—L 20-33315353+11BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 2ATROY—L 10-28278181-17BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11HARKANSAS STATE—W 21-14343737+27BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18HMARSHALL—W 28-0312626+38BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25ATEXAS STATE—L 44-52324747+17BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 23AEASTERN MICHIGAN—W 59-10161818+46BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB43TAL67PERF43RET86ONE OWNERn=3 · 8 METRICS · 11 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
2
CARTER BRADLEYQB SERET
★3—8676%+15—
3
GIO LOPEZQB JUNO SNAPS
★3★35414%+33HELD
1
DESMOND TROTTERQB SERET
★3—469%+14—
10
TANNER MCGEEQB JURET
★2—00%——
4
BISHOP DAVENPORTQB SEPORTAL · UTAH STATE
★3★300%+6HELD
11
TRIP MAXWELLQB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB61TAL38PERF61RET72ONE OWNERn=4 · 9 METRICS · 23 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
3
LA'DAMIAN WEBBRB SERET
UNR—9345%+26—
3
KENTREL BULLOCKRB SEPORTAL · OLE MISS
★3★37724%+11HELD
3
BAM MCREYNOLDSRB SERET
★3★36615%+40HELD
29
MARCO LEE JR.RB SERET
UNR—6212%-6—
0
PJ MARTINRB SENO SNAPS
★3—353%+32—
33
DORIAN SMITHRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—171%——
21
JARVIS DURRRB FRTRUE FR
★3—121%——
26
JONATHON CARTERRB SERET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE54TAL56PERF56RET83ROTATIONn=7 · 8 METRICS · 41 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
2
JAMAAL PRITCHETTWR SERET
UNR—9733%+19—
5
CAULLIN LACYWR SERET
★3★49632%+34ROSE
8
DJ THOMAS-JONESTE SERET
UNR—8734%-6—
13
JAVON IVORYWR SEPORTAL · MEMPHIS
★3★38724%-8HELD
20
BRANDON CRUMTE SERET
★2—8229%+18—
88
LINCOLN SEFCIKTE SERET
UNR—7624%-11—
27
JACOB HOPPERTE JURET
★3—517%——
1
DEVIN VOISINWR SERET
★2—504%+20—
81
JEREMIAH WEBBWR SERET
★2—453%——
86
TODD JUSTICETE SERET
UNR—414%——
6
JAY'JUAN TOWNSENDWR JURET
★3—342%——
15
SHAMAR SANDGRENWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—271%——
18
KEYSHAWN WOODYARDWR SERET
★3—251%——
1
ANTHONY EAGERWR SENO SNAPS
★3—191%——
34
MICAH TURNERTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—171%——
82
TRENT THOMASTE JUNO SNAPS
★3★3171%—HELD
84
OAKLEY COLEMANWR JURET
UNR—00%——
16
CHRISTOPHER DAVIS JR.WR SORET
★3—00%——
89
CAELEB SCHLACHTERWR JURET
★2★300%—ROSE
23
CASH TURNERWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
30
STACEY BOYKINS JR.WR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
80
HOLLIS MCDANIELTE SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
17
JACE LARSENWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
15
CHRIS HOLIFIELD JR.WR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL50TAL48PERF50RET67n=7 · 3 METRICS · 21 OBS
▸DL52TAL21PERF52RET98n=8 · 8 METRICS · 45 OBS
▸LB61TAL67PERF61RET97n=5 · 11 METRICS · 41 OBS
▸DB48TAL77PERF48RET87n=8 · 8 METRICS · 42 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS12 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ADRIAN GRIFFINHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
JOSHUA BLEDSOEHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
GIO LOPEZHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
ANTHONY EAGERHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JARVIS DURRHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
TRENT THOMASHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
KARON WEARYHS RECRUITS★3UNR
JOHN WARDHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
PATRICK MARTINHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
JORDAN NORMANHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN9 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JAVON IVORYMEMPHISWR★3★3
KENTREL BULLOCKOLE MISSRB★3★3
REED BUYSMISSISSIPPI STATEIOLUNR★3
JORDAN BUCHANANPURDUECB★3★3
BISHOP DAVENPORTUTAH STATEQB★3★3
LUCAS TAYLORMISSISSIPPI STATEOT★3★3
JORDAN DAVISSOUTH CAROLINAOTUNR★3
WESLEY MILLERMISSISSIPPI STATES★3★3
GAVIN FORSHAKANSAS STATELBUNR★2
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT21 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JAMES JACKSONELIGIBILITY UPOLUNR—
DARRELL LUTER JR.ELIGIBILITY UPCBUNR—
JALEN WAYNEELIGIBILITY UPWR★2—
JAMAR RICHARDSONELIGIBILITY UPCB★3—
PJ MIXONELIGIBILITY UPOLUNR—
KENT FOSTERELIGIBILITY UPOLUNR—
CJ THOMPSONELIGIBILITY UPSUNR—
OMNI WELLSELIGIBILITY UPRB★3—
A.J. DESHAZOR JR.ELIGIBILITY UPLBUNR—
GI'NARIOUS JOHNSONELIGIBILITY UPDLUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES18%2 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS26%4 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#90NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 12 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8404COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
94 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
119TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
16
38
33
21
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +9 W
IMPROVED54 OF 119
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST86% BACK86th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG86% BACK86th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR67%67th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR86%86th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST87%87th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE