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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SUN BELT|MAJOR APPLEWHITE|—RECORD4-8|CONF—
SOUTH ALABAMA105 FPISBC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
26FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
72%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
54%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-1IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1180 BC / 12
BC RATIO
3%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs5.0-7.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN-3.9
4 wins against a scoring profile describing 5.0. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE32
PERFORMANCE32
TALENT41
CONTINUITY72
DEFENSE9
PERFORMANCE9
TALENT33
CONTINUITY54
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
38MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30HMORGAN STATE—W 38-21————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 6HTULANE#18L 31-33516767-51BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 13AAUBURN—L 15-31917979-63BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 20HCOASTAL CAROLINA—L 20-38421111+5BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 27ANORTH TEXAS#24L 22-36318484-68BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4ATROY—L 24-31283636-20BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 14HARKANSAS STATE—L 14-15372626-10BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 23AGEORGIA STATE—W 38-314522+14BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1HLOUISIANA—L 22-31342323-7BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15AUL MONROE—W 26-141044+12BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22HSOUTHERN MISS—W 42-35403131-15BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29ATEXAS STATE—L 26-49455353-37BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB37TAL39PERF37RET95ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
4
BISHOP DAVENPORTQB SERET
★3★38395%+29HELD
7
JARED HOLLINSQB JURET
★3—325%——
8
ZACH PYRONQB JUPORTAL · MINNESOTA
★4★300%-33FELL
16
BUBBA THOMPSONQB FRTRUE FR
UNR★300%—EMERGED
▾RB63TAL49PERF63RET67ONE OWNERn=3 · 5 METRICS · 14 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
3
KENTREL BULLOCKRB SERET
★3★39351%+9HELD
3
KEENAN PHILLIPSRB JUNO SNAPS
★3—8132%-9—
0
PJ MARTINRB SERET
★3—6516%+23—
21
TRAE'VON DUNBARRB JUNO SNAPS
★3—131%——
23
IVERSON CELESTINERB SERET
★3★300%-40HELD
15
CHRIS HOLIFIELD JR.RB SERET
UNR—00%——
24
JULYON JORDANRB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
34
ANDRE SPENCERB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE66TAL31PERF65RET62ROTATIONn=7 · 7 METRICS · 32 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
DEVIN VOISINWR SERET
★2—8934%+22—
82
TRENT THOMASTE JURET
★3★38433%-41HELD
1
ANTHONY EAGERWR SERET
★3—8329%-7—
9
ROD GIBBSTE SERET
UNR—7927%-36—
2
MILLER MCCRUMBYTE SEPORTAL · ARKANSAS STATE
★3★37827%-19HELD
6
JEREMY SCOTTWR JURET
★3★37622%+27HELD
17
BREC LONGTE SENO SNAPS
UNR★36213%—EMERGED
12
BRENDAN JENKINSWR SEPORTAL · SAMFORD
UNR★3599%+1EMERGED
6
MICAH WOODSWR SERET
UNR★3464%-45EMERGED
2
JEREMIAH JONES-THOMASWR SONO SNAPS
★3—271%——
84
NATE FORYSTEKTE SEPORTAL · NORTH DAKOTA STATE
UNR★340%—EMERGED
80
HOLLIS MCDANIELTE SORET
UNR—40%——
89
NICK SIMMONSWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
18
KEYSHAWN WOODYARDWR SERET
★3—00%——
27
TYLEN CAMPBELLWR SERET
UNR—00%——
83
JERRIAN GRAHAMWR JURET
★3—00%——
17
JACE LARSENWR SORET
UNR—00%——
10
NOAH TOSTERWR SERET
UNR★300%—EMERGED
87
TRAE STEVENSONWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
14
MADDOX LYNCHTE SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
88
OWEN CARLSONTE SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
85
TI MIMSWR FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
▸OL60TAL44PERF60RET76n=7 · 3 METRICS · 19 OBS
▸DL33TAL27PERF33RET61n=9 · 7 METRICS · 48 OBS
▸LB23TAL19PERF23RET58n=7 · 11 METRICS · 46 OBS
▸DB49TAL45PERF49RET59n=10 · 6 METRICS · 50 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS12 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TI MIMSHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JULYON JORDANHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
KOHL BRADLEYHS RECRUITS★3UNR
KEARIUS BIVENSHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
DEVIN WHITEHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
MADDOX LYNCHHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
ANTONIO GIBBSHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
E'MAURI SMILEYHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
SHERMON SMITHHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
DEUCE VANCEHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN13 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ZACH PYRONMINNESOTAQB★4★3
TRAEVON DUNBARWEST VIRGINIARBUNR★3
NEHEMIAH CHANDLERGEORGIA TECHCB★3★3
STEPHEN JOHNSONMCNEESEDL★3★3
BRENDAN JENKINSSAMFORDWRUNR★3
TYWON WRAY JR.OKLAHOMA STATES★3★3
AMAURY WIGGINSARKANSASIOLUNR★3
EMMANUEL WALLERUABEDGE★3★3
MILLER MCCRUMBYARKANSAS STATETE★3★3
TIRRELL JOHNSONHARDING UNIVERSITYEDGEUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT33 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MALACHI CARNEYGEORGIA TECHOL★3★3
LARDARIUS WEBB JR.WAKE FORESTDB★3★3
JORDAN SCRUGGSWEST VIRGINIACBUNR★3
AMARION FORTENBERRYKANSAS STATECB★3★3
JORDAN NORMANTULANEDL★3★3
GIO LOPEZNORTH CAROLINAQB★3★3
JALYN DURGANNORTH TEXASDLUNR★3
FLUFF BOTHWELLMISSISSIPPI STATERB★3★4
RICKEY HYATT JR.OHIODB★3★3
BAM MCREYNOLDSUL MONROERB★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES51%7 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS74%8 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#118NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 12 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8416COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2324 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
63TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
14
23
8
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +5 W
IMPROVED15 OF 63
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST33% BACK33th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG33% BACK33th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR76%76th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR95%95th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST59%59th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE