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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SUN BELT|CHARLES HUFF|—RECORD7-6|CONF—
SOUTHERN MISS98 FPISBC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
40FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
15%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
20%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
+10IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1050 BC / 14
BC RATIO
11%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
7-5ACTUALvs6.6-5.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN+2.4
7 wins against a scoring profile describing 6.6. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE22
PERFORMANCE22
TALENT36
CONTINUITY15
DEFENSE41
PERFORMANCE41
TALENT55
CONTINUITY20
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
32MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
0 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30HMISSISSIPPI STATE—L 17-34835757-26BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 6HJACKSON STATE—W 38-20————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 13HAPP STATE—W 38-22431919+12BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 20ALOUISIANA TECH—L 20-30164444-13BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 27HJACKSONVILLE STATE—W 42-25203333-2BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 9AGEORGIA SOUTHERN—W 38-35332424+7BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18ALOUISIANA—W 22-10342323+8BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25HUL MONROE—W 49-211044+27BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8AARKANSAS STATE—W 27-21372626+5BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15HTEXAS STATE—L 14-41455353-22BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22ASOUTH ALABAMA—L 35-42261616+15BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29HTROY—L 18-28283636-5BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 23HWESTERN KENTUCKY—L 16-27285050-19BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB53TAL58PERF53RET0ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 10 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
BRAYLON BRAXTONQB SEPORTAL · MARSHALL
★3★39689%+6HELD
18
LANDRY LYDDYQB SEPORTAL · UAB
★3★35711%+16HELD
12
JOHN WHITEQB SORET
★3—00%+11—
15
JACOBE ROBINSONQB SOPORTAL · BOSTON COLLEGE
★3★300%—HELD
17
KYLE MCCORMICKQB JURET
★2—00%——
16
DENZEL GARDNERQB FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
▾RB44TAL22PERF44RET0ROTATIONn=4 · 9 METRICS · 23 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
0
JEFFERY PITTMANRB JUPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE
UNR★39140%+11EMERGED
5
MATT JONESRB SEPORTAL · OLE MISS
★3★37925%+18HELD
2
ROBERT BRIGGSRB SENO SNAPS
★3—7219%+2—
6
JAYLIN CARTERRB SONO SNAPS
★3★36917%+17HELD
25
JOSIAH BASTENRB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
43
TYRESE WEEKSRB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
20
ROBERT HENDERSONRB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE42TAL41PERF43RET15ONE OWNERn=7 · 8 METRICS · 49 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
7
CARL CHESTERWR SEPORTAL · MARSHALL
★3★39626%+33HELD
9
ELIJAH METCALFWR SEPORTAL · MARSHALL
★3★39121%+14HELD
6
MICAH DAVISWR SEPORTAL · OLE MISS
UNR★38819%+25EMERGED
84
KADINN MORRISTE SEPORTAL · WESTERN MICHIGAN
★3★38347%+25HELD
88
KYIRIN HEATHTE SERET
★3★38244%+25HELD
8
BRALON BROWNWR SEPORTAL · MARSHALL
★4★38216%+14FELL
1
TYCHAUN CHAPMANWR SEPORTAL · MARSHALL
★4★37311%+30FELL
11
DAVIS DALTONWR SERET
★3—493%+12—
8
SHANE KINGTE SONO SNAPS
★3★3405%—HELD
3
CHUCK MONTGOMERYWR SEPORTAL · MARSHALL
★3★3392%+6HELD
10
TJ JOHNSONTE JUPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA
★3★3384%—HELD
11
JERMANE HAYESWR SONO SNAPS
★3★3301%—HELD
13
GRANT PAGEWR SEPORTAL · UTAH STATE
★3★3271%-28HELD
19
CACE REEDWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
80
ZAVIAN HALESWR SERET
UNR—00%——
23
TREY HORNEWR JUPORTAL · GEORGIA TECH
★3★300%—HELD
82
CONNOR GOODINGTE SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
87
CASTON BROWNTE SORET
UNR—00%——
83
DILLON ROWLEYWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
85
ELIJAH ZAMORAWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
89
MIKE DURANWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL47TAL28PERF47RET22n=7 · 3 METRICS · 19 OBS
▸DL48TAL48PERF48RET27n=11 · 8 METRICS · 61 OBS
▸LB47TAL52PERF47RET53n=6 · 11 METRICS · 43 OBS
▸DB58TAL61PERF58RET1n=8 · 8 METRICS · 49 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS7 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ZACH RUFFINHS RECRUITS★3UNR
JERMANE HAYESHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
TREVIONN MORTONHS RECRUITS★3UNR
DENZEL GARDNERHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
SHANE KINGHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
SILAS CORDERHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
KHALIL FOSTERHS RECRUITS★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN18 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JOSH MOTENMARSHALLCB★4★4
BRAYLON BRAXTONMARSHALLQB★3★3
JOSH BATTLECHATTANOOGASUNR★3
AMIR LEONARD-JEAN CHARLESWEST VIRGINIADL★3★3
HAYES CREELMCNEESEOTUNR★3
ELIJAH METCALFMARSHALLWR★3★3
JACOBE ROBINSONBOSTON COLLEGEQB★3★3
ELIJAH KINSLERWEST VIRGINIADL★3★3
CHRISTIAN ANDERSONALABAMA A&MOT★3★3
IAN FOSTERMARSHALLSUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT59 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
WILL JAMESHOUSTONDB★3★3
BRAXTON MYERSWESTERN KENTUCKYDB★4★3
WIL SAXTONARKANSAS STATEOL★3★3
MICHEAL CARAWAY JR.FLORIDADBUNR★3
QUES MCNEALSTEPHEN F. AUSTINDBUNR★3
KOLBE CAGENORTHWESTERN STATELB★3★3
LARRY SIMMONSUTAHWR★3★3
JUSTYN REIDTULANETE★3★3
ELIJAH SABBATININICHOLLSS★3★3
JORDAN JOHNSONUT MARTINS★2UNR
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES97%10 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS82%13 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#105NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 14 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8374COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
5242 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKNEW
56TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
5
15
14
11
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-5 TO +6 W
IMPROVED25 OF 56
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST60% BACK60th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG60% BACK60th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR22%22th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST1%1th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE