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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
AMERICAN ATHLETIC|ALEX GOLESH|—RECORD9-4|CONF—
SOUTH FLORIDA25 FPIAAC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
56FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
56%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
66%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-2IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#650 BC / 26
BC RATIO
5%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
9-3ACTUALvs9.7-2.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN+19.7
9 wins against a scoring profile describing 9.7. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE80
PERFORMANCE80
TALENT73
CONTINUITY56
DEFENSE68
PERFORMANCE68
TALENT41
CONTINUITY66
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
49MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 28HBOISE STATE—W 34-7425353+26BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 6AFLORIDA—W 18-16925454+25BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 13AMIAMI#2L 12-49909494-15BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 20HSOUTH CAROLINA STATE—W 63-14————NON-FBS OPPONENT
6OCT 3HCHARLOTTE—W 54-262211+78BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 10ANORTH TEXAS#24W 63-36318484-5BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18HFLORIDA ATLANTIC—W 48-13412828+51BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25AMEMPHIS—L 31-34587272+7BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 6HUTSA—W 55-23535555+24BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15ANAVY#23L 38-4116666+13BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22AUAB—W 48-182688+71BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29HRICE—W 52-3231212+67BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 17HOLD DOMINION—L 10-24126464+15BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB82TAL97PERF82RET85ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 9 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
17
BYRUM BROWNQB SERET
★3★48985%+26ROSE
3
GASTON MOOREQB SEPORTAL · TENNESSEE
UNR—5712%+26—
3
LOCKLAN HEWLETTQB SONO SNAPS
★3★3303%—HELD
14
MARCELIS TATEQB SORET
★3★300%—HELD
12
SAM FENTONQB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾RB61TAL73PERF61RET76ROTATIONn=4 · 5 METRICS · 17 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
34
RICO WATSON IIIFB SERET
UNR—8417%——
11
D.J. HARRISFB SERET
★4—7914%——
24
NYKAHI DAVENPORTRB SORET
★3★37833%+28HELD
15
ALVON ISAACRB SORET
★3★37428%+32HELD
4
SAM FRANKLINRB SEPORTAL · OKLAHOMA
UNR★37125%+26EMERGED
5
CARTEVIOUS NORTONRB SEPORTAL · CHARLOTTE
★3★35611%-37HELD
22
CHASE GARNETTRB FRTRUE FR
★3—212%——
20
JAYLEN JOHNSONRB JURET
★3★3111%—HELD
24
TRAY KINKLERB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
32
CONNOR MATTHEWSRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE69TAL65PERF72RET44ROTATIONn=9 · 8 METRICS · 52 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
11
KESHAUN SINGLETONWR JURET
UNR★39024%+32EMERGED
4
JEREMIAH KOGERWR SONO SNAPS
★3★38018%+33HELD
8
WYATT SULLIVANTE SEPORTAL · FLORIDA ATLANTIC
★3★37844%-12HELD
8
CHRISTIAN NEPTUNEWR SONO SNAPS
★3★37615%+7HELD
6
MUDIA REUBENWR SEPORTAL · STANFORD
★3★37414%+12HELD
1
JONATHAN ECHOLSTE SORET
★4★37133%+42FELL
5
CHAS NIMRODWR SEPORTAL · TENNESSEE
★3★37112%+15HELD
19
JEYQUAN SMITHWR JURET
★3—648%+19—
80
JOSHUA PORTERWR JURET
★3—606%-29—
18
WESTON WOLFFTE SERET
★3★35615%-17HELD
47
EVAN DANGLERTE SERET
UNR—458%——
12
JADEN ALEXISWR SERET
★4★3372%-26FELL
13
KORY PETTIGREWWR SONO SNAPS
★3★3291%—HELD
85
CHRISTIAN HELMSWR SERET
UNR—191%——
0
BRANDON WINTONWR SORET
★3★3140%—HELD
84
CADE ROBERTSWR SERET
★3—00%——
14
ARKESE PARKSWR SORET
★3—00%——
27
JAYDEN DAVISWR JURET
UNR—00%——
81
TAYTE CRABLETE FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
88
BRANDON KUBAYTE FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
82
TYLER WILLIAMSWR SEPORTAL · MINNESOTA
★4★400%—HELD
26
CAMERON COBBWR SERET
UNR—00%——
▸OL65TAL75PERF65RET63n=6 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL52TAL39PERF52RET30n=10 · 8 METRICS · 51 OBS
▸LB54TAL39PERF54RET96n=7 · 11 METRICS · 44 OBS
▸DB52TAL44PERF52RET80n=10 · 8 METRICS · 58 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS20 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CHRISTIAN NEPTUNEHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
GERRICK GORDON JR.HS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
TRAY KINKLEHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
GAVIN JENKINSHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
CALEB HARRISHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
BROOKS WILLIAMS JR.HS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
JEREMIAH KOGERHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
LOCKLAN HEWLETTHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
JERMICHAEL GILLISHS RECRUITS★3UNR
CHRISTIAN SMITHHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN5 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
IZAIAH GUYGEORGIA STATECB★3★3
CHAVEZ BROWNNORTH TEXASLBUNR★3
SAM FRANKLINOKLAHOMARBUNR★3
CHAS NIMRODTENNESSEEWR★3★3
TYLER WILLIAMSMINNESOTAWR★4★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT38 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BRENT AUSTINCALIFORNIADBUNR★3
BERNARD GOODENLSUDL★3★4
TAWFIQ BYARDCOLORADOS★3★3
ANDREW KILFOYLBOWLING GREENG★3★3
LANGSTON LONGTOLEDOLB★3★3
NIKOLA MILOVACKENNESAW STATEOL★3★3
ISRAEL CARTERNORFOLK STATEQB★3★3
CHENELLSON EXUMEFLORIDA ATLANTICDL★3★3
TYREE KELLYMASSACHUSETTSWRUNRUNR
AAMARIS BROWN-BUNKLEYUNLVDBUNRUNR
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES83%9 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS76%9 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#65NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 26 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8525COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2325 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKNEW
16TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+2.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
1
2
2
6
5
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-0.3 TO +3.0 W
FULL RANGE-5 TO +9 W
IMPROVED11 OF 16
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST100% BACK100th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG100% BACK100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR63%63th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR85%85th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST80%80th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE